Champions League Betting: Arsenal dealt tough Udinese draw

Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 05 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Arsene Wenger will have to pit his wits against Udinese's Francesco Guidolin

"As is often the case in such situations, Udinese’s response to one of the most successful campaigns in their recent history was to flog their assets while their value was high."

History suggests that Arsenal always make it to the Champions League group stage at the very least, but they will have to do it the hard way this year after drawing Serie A overachievers Udinese.

The Gunners have been constant qualifiers since 1998-99 so will rightly be fancied to progress, however this will be one of their tougher tests, especially as the second leg is at the Stadio Friuli, where the Italian club went unbeaten against their division's top five last season.

Arsene Wenger's team stood to face Udinese, Rubin Kazan, Twente, FC Zurich or OB, so will feel hard done by landing one of the trickiest available opponents, though confidence can be gained from the Zebrette enduring an even more underwhelming summer than them.

As is often the case in such situations, Udinese's response to one of the most successful campaigns in their recent history was to flog their assets while their value was high. Alexis Sanchez joined Barcelona, Gokhan Inler headed to Napoli and Cristian Zapata made his way to Villarreal.

That and the dreadful record of Serie A sides in Europe in 2010-11 is why the second-time entrants, who reached the group stage in 2005-06, are [560.0] to take the trophy at the Allianz Arena next May, whereas Arsenal aren't too far shy of the frontrunners at [22.0].

2009-10 semi-finalists Lyon [[280.0]] also failed to receive the full benefit of their place among the seeds, landing a difficult collision with Rubin Kazan [[410.0]] that is made all the more challenging by their lack of action so far in the transfer market.

Benfica [[180.0]] will be favoured in their intriguing tie with Dutch title challengers Twente [[800.0]], whose continental stock rises with each passing season, having secured a second leg in Lisbon, while Bayern Munich [[22.0]] will be happy to have been paired with FC Zurich.

Smart bettors will look beyond the result, because there is some excellent value on offer in some of the other markets before the showdown at Wembley on Saturday night, writes James Eastham....

Want to know how Manchester United can stop Barcelona? Michael Cox assesses the likely patterns of play and selection conundrums ahead of Saturday's Champions League final....

Lionel Messi was named in a whopping 98% of teams as football fans around the world voted on the best hybrid line-up of FC Barcelona and Manchester United players, ahead of the Champions League Final between the two clubs....

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Hammers to be dealt relegation blow

Premier League / Gary Boswell / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Not even the fabulous Scott Parker can keep West Ham up, according to Gary Boswell

"The straightforward back for me at this stage is on West Ham at 2.0. The Hammers gave themselves a huge fillip with the win over Liverpool but their next four includes Spurs and Bolton away and Stoke and Manchester United at home and I don’t see any more three pointers in there."

He's looked at the fixtures, he's predicted the results and he's done the maths. Now Gary Boswell tells us who he expects to be playing Championship football next season.

You can't say you come from the Black Country unless you know how to moan about Albion and Wolves. That's a truism I grew up with at the Hawthorns and two weeks ago in the Hen & Chickens on Wolverhampton Road I was sipping a pint of Banks' with the Baggies fans reliving my rite of passage and agreeing how we were doing our usual thing and going down again. This time at least we were taking Wolves with us! Sixth at the start of November, bottom but one by end of Feb.

Enter Roy Hodgson and a few lessons in how to defend. Eleven men behind the ball for long periods at the Brittania on Monday night and Scott Carson only put his goal kick straight into touch four times. He made no other ricks. We got a point and maybe the Baggies are staying up after all!

The Premier League relegation market has remained fascinating throughout and reaches its critical phase now. You've been able to argue for most of the season that any one of ten or eleven sides could go down and it's still the case that all those below Newcastle in ninth are mathematically vulnerable. Everton, Fulham and Villa in particular only need to put together a run of three defeats to get themselves dragged into it. Time to get the four game projection chart out and see where we are at in mid April and whether there aren't a few juicy Back-to-Lays to be had.

Fulham are quoted at [14.5] to be relegated and face a tough next three where a mere two points is conceivable but the one to really interest is Aston Villa at [32.0] with their next four games being Bolton and Everton away and Wolves and Newcastle at home. A lot depends in this exercise on 'guesstimation' of course but I could see just two points from that haul as well given that the Wolves game will be a potboiler and could easily go against them. That would bring Villa into mid-April on 35 points with potentially only Fulham and the four WWWWs beneath them and the price will then have contracted considerably. It looks a good play to me with the proviso that we do another four game projection at that point and see whether or not they really could go down!

I expect that theory to be quite popular in the Hen and Chickens!

Realistically of course the three relegation slots do look to concern Wigan,Wolves, West Ham and West Brom and of those four, Wigan and West Brom look to have the toughest next four games. Wigan face Man City and Chelsea away and stay bottom on my projection, looking all but doomed and not worth betting consideration at what is already a shortish price. Albion have to somehow find four points from Birmingham and Sunderland away and Arsenal and Liverpool at home but with Hodgson at the helm you feel there is a win and a draw in there somewhere.

Such is the faith the man has already engendered! [2.14] the Baggies to go down reflects the general view of their vulnerability but with a point in hand over Wolves, I see no reason for McCarthy's men to be longer at [2.4] when their next four includes Spurs and Everton at home and Newcastle and that trip to Villa away. Much depends on how the latter pans out but I score Wolves five points from that four games at best which means of course that nothing will be decided by mid April on which of the Black Country boys will drop! Tied on 33 points the pair!

The straightforward back for me at this stage is on West Ham at [2.0]. The Hammers gave themselves a huge fillip with the win over Liverpool but their next four includes Spurs and Bolton away and Stoke and Manchester United at home and I don't see any more three pointers in there. Their haul may be as low as two points so that they will be marooned with Wigan on 30 points come mid April. It will be tough (but not impossible of course!) to escape from there and it's the Hammers' nail that's in the coffin according to my chart!

THE BOZ's PREDICTED PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING APRIL 9th - BOTTOM NINE PLACES ONLY:

Blackburn : 40 points
Birmingham: 37 points
Blackpool : 36 points
Aston Villa : 35 points
Fulham : 34 points
West Brom: 33 points
Wolves : 33 points
West Ham : 30 points
Wigan :30 points

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED RELEGATION BETS:

2pts BACK WEST HAM to be relegated at [2.0]
1pt BACK to LAY ASTON VILLA to be relegated at [32.0]

He's looked at the fixtures, he's predicted the results and he's done the maths. Now Gary Boswell tells us who he expects to be playing Championship football next season....

They produced a cracking match for the neutral and Birmingham were worthy winners but what do the stats tell us about what lies in store for these two after Sunday's result?...

Chelsea stunned league leaders Manchester United by coming from a goal down to win 2-1 on a night of great entertainment at the top of the Premier League....

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Serie A Betting: Old Lady to be dealt a killer blow

Italian Football / Editor / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Christams come early for Udinese fans? Toto Di Natale is one of the best finishers in Serie A and can give Juve serious problems

"Given the way that Udinese took on Inter last weekend, and the form that is being shown by both Antonio Di Natale and Alexis Sanchez, I’ll take the risk that an open game provides four goals at least, and that Udinese come out on top."

Udinese are one of the great entertainers of Serie A and have been in good form of late, making their trip to Juventus an intriguing one. Elsewhere, Napoli host Sampdoria...

Juventus v Udinese

When Francesco Guidolin turned down the Queen's Park Rangers job four years ago, few people in England had heard of him, but now his Udinese team is the talk of Serie A.

Udinese are unbeaten since the season resumed at the start of the month, and in those five matches they've scored fifteen times. ESPN viewers last Sunday morning were treated to an attacking masterclass against Inter Milan, and now Guidolin's team goes to the Olimpico in Turin to take a Juventus side who were rocked in midweek by their elimination from the Coppa Italia.

The manner in which a strong Juve team was picked apart by Roma must have been worrying for Gigi Del Neri and there are signs that the giants are in a little bit of trouble. A home win over Bari a couple of weeks ago was unconvincing, and aside from that, they've had the worst of a 0-0 draw at Sampdoria, and been beaten convincingly in Naples and at home by Parma.

That match against Guidolin's old team is the most fascinating form guide ahead of this match. Parma's coach Pasquale Marino used to be in charge of Udinese, and he went to the Olimpico with an attacking mentality and saw Parma run Juve off their feet in a 4-1 victory.

Udinese can do something very similar and Sunday night viewers may well witness the humiliation of Juventus. Del Neri has injury problems going into this one, and despite the probable return of Vincenzo Iaquinta, they're still not looking a threat in front of goal, and the second half of the season could be a long one. With the likely pattern of the match established, the question remains as to the best way for us to make money. Over 2.5 goals is certainly too big at [1.93], and Udinese are [3.5] for the away win. Given the way that Udinese took on Inter last weekend, and the form that is being shown by both Antonio Di Natale and Alexis Sanchez, I'll take the risk that an open game provides four goals at least, and that Udinese come out on top.

Recommendations:

Udinese to beat Juventus @ [3.5]

Over 3.5 Goals in Udinese v Juventus @ [3.3]

Napoli v Sampdoria

Napoli did the job for us last week at Bari, but as has already been discussed, they seem to look more comfortable away from home than they do at the San Paolo, and with Edinson Cavani probably out of the weekend's match against Sampdoria, they may find it hard to break down one of Serie A's dullest teams.

If Napoli haven't made a genuine challenge for the Scudetto by the end of the season, then this may be a year on which they look back with great regret. It feels like one of those transitional years in Italy, with none of the big clubs looking entirely convincing, and with the opportunity there to be grabbed by a Lazio or a Napoli. Roma may still come storming up the rails to win the title, but if Napoli can sort out their home form then they too can challenge.

They've already dropped ten points here this season, and while that might not sound like many, it's the nature of the opposition which will so have disappointed Walter Mazzari.

Fiorentina held them 0-0, Bari also drew, and Chievo beat them. Add those seven points to Napoli's total and they'd currently be three clear at the top. Sampdoria have played it safe since the turn of the year, with coach Mimmo Di Carlo realising that fight has become more important than flair, and since the resumption, Samp have failed to score in three of four games. They'll go to the San Paolo with the intention of getting a 0-0 draw, and with Cavani absent, they may well manage, despite their growing list of absentees. The 0-0 draw is trading at a tempting [12.0], but if you do take that price, then be very aware in play of the fact that Napoli make a habit of scoring late late goals here. I'm happy to take the [3.5] about their being under 1.5 goals, and may have a bit of fun In-Play as the 0-0 price dips below [1.2].

Recommendation Back under 1.5 goals in Napoli v Sampdoria @ [3.5]

View the original article here

Serie A Betting: Old Lady to be dealt a killer blow

Italian Football / Editor / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Christams come early for Udinese fans? Toto Di Natale is one of the best finishers in Serie A and can give Juve serious problems

"Given the way that Udinese took on Inter last weekend, and the form that is being shown by both Antonio Di Natale and Alexis Sanchez, I’ll take the risk that an open game provides four goals at least, and that Udinese come out on top."

Udinese are one of the great entertainers of Serie A and have been in good form of late, making their trip to Juventus an intriguing one. Elsewhere, Napoli host Sampdoria...

Juventus v Udinese

When Francesco Guidolin turned down the Queen's Park Rangers job four years ago, few people in England had heard of him, but now his Udinese team is the talk of Serie A.

Udinese are unbeaten since the season resumed at the start of the month, and in those five matches they've scored fifteen times. ESPN viewers last Sunday morning were treated to an attacking masterclass against Inter Milan, and now Guidolin's team goes to the Olimpico in Turin to take a Juventus side who were rocked in midweek by their elimination from the Coppa Italia.

The manner in which a strong Juve team was picked apart by Roma must have been worrying for Gigi Del Neri and there are signs that the giants are in a little bit of trouble. A home win over Bari a couple of weeks ago was unconvincing, and aside from that, they've had the worst of a 0-0 draw at Sampdoria, and been beaten convincingly in Naples and at home by Parma.

That match against Guidolin's old team is the most fascinating form guide ahead of this match. Parma's coach Pasquale Marino used to be in charge of Udinese, and he went to the Olimpico with an attacking mentality and saw Parma run Juve off their feet in a 4-1 victory.

Udinese can do something very similar and Sunday night viewers may well witness the humiliation of Juventus. Del Neri has injury problems going into this one, and despite the probable return of Vincenzo Iaquinta, they're still not looking a threat in front of goal, and the second half of the season could be a long one. With the likely pattern of the match established, the question remains as to the best way for us to make money. Over 2.5 goals is certainly too big at [1.93], and Udinese are [3.5] for the away win. Given the way that Udinese took on Inter last weekend, and the form that is being shown by both Antonio Di Natale and Alexis Sanchez, I'll take the risk that an open game provides four goals at least, and that Udinese come out on top.

Recommendations:

Udinese to beat Juventus @ [3.5]

Over 3.5 Goals in Udinese v Juventus @ [3.3]

Napoli v Sampdoria

Napoli did the job for us last week at Bari, but as has already been discussed, they seem to look more comfortable away from home than they do at the San Paolo, and with Edinson Cavani probably out of the weekend's match against Sampdoria, they may find it hard to break down one of Serie A's dullest teams.

If Napoli haven't made a genuine challenge for the Scudetto by the end of the season, then this may be a year on which they look back with great regret. It feels like one of those transitional years in Italy, with none of the big clubs looking entirely convincing, and with the opportunity there to be grabbed by a Lazio or a Napoli. Roma may still come storming up the rails to win the title, but if Napoli can sort out their home form then they too can challenge.

They've already dropped ten points here this season, and while that might not sound like many, it's the nature of the opposition which will so have disappointed Walter Mazzari.

Fiorentina held them 0-0, Bari also drew, and Chievo beat them. Add those seven points to Napoli's total and they'd currently be three clear at the top. Sampdoria have played it safe since the turn of the year, with coach Mimmo Di Carlo realising that fight has become more important than flair, and since the resumption, Samp have failed to score in three of four games. They'll go to the San Paolo with the intention of getting a 0-0 draw, and with Cavani absent, they may well manage, despite their growing list of absentees. The 0-0 draw is trading at a tempting [12.0], but if you do take that price, then be very aware in play of the fact that Napoli make a habit of scoring late late goals here. I'm happy to take the [3.5] about their being under 1.5 goals, and may have a bit of fun In-Play as the 0-0 price dips below [1.2].

Recommendation Back under 1.5 goals in Napoli v Sampdoria @ [3.5]

View the original article here