French Football 
/ James Eastham / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Youssouf Hadji of Nancy is one of the division's best forwards
"It’s easy to see why Nancy’s games are so high-scoring: playmaker Julien Feret and centre-forward Youssouf Hadji are among the best in the division in their positions, but a defence where the likes of Andre Luiz, Joel Sami and Jordan Loties get picked so often is always going to ship goals."
None of the big guns are involved in James' selections this week but that's no reason to give his reliable tips a miss....
Montpellier (6th) v Rennes (2nd) (Sat, 6pm kick-off UK time)
Two months we suggested, at [24.0], Rennes were too big to win the French League title. Events have proved us right: going into this game the Bretons are second only on goal difference and have come in to [12.5] in the outright market. Whether they've got the all-round ability to win the league is another matter, but they offer another good betting opportunity this weekend.
Montpellier boast one of the division's best back fours (see bet below) but are fairly predictable going forward, especially as playmaker Marco Estrada, the creative hub of the side, has been poor since the turn of the year. Younes Belhanda scored a late winner to defeat league leaders Lille a fortnight ago but I don't see Rene Girard's side claiming another major scalp here.
There's hardly anything in this game, whereas the market makes Rennes clear outsiders at [3.35], to Montpellier's [2.52] (the draw is [3.2]). A low-scoring draw is a reasonable possibility, so I'd lay the hosts or back Rennes 0 Asian handicap.
Lorient (8th) v Nancy (16th) (Sat, 6pm)
Lorient and Nancy have been two of this season's must-see sides for goals: Lorient's games have averaged 2.52 goals, Nancy's 2.72. Twenty-five of the sides' combined 49 games have had over 2.5 goals.
It's easy to see why Nancy's games are so high-scoring: playmaker Julien Feret and centre-forward Youssouf Hadji are among the best in the division in their positions, but a defence where the likes of Andre Luiz, Joel Sami and Jordan Loties get picked so often is always going to ship goals.
Lorient's defence is usually fairly solid but members of it are missing this weekend, and those that are available will be tired after playing for 120 minutes and losing on penalties at Lille on Wednesday night (and the 1,400km round trip won't have helped, either). Nancy will be better-equipped than most sides to score on Lorient's artificial pitch, too, as the visitors have their own faux-turf surface at their Stade Marcel-Picot.
At [2.2], over 2.5 goals is too big.
Montpellier (6th) v Rennes (2nd) and Nice (15th) v Lens (19th) (both Sat, 6pm)
Montpellier v Rennes is my first low-scoring pick of the weekend. Montpellier's home games have featured just 2.08 goals a game. Rennes away stats are even more remarkable: their 12 games have featured just 1.83 goals a game. Rennes have the division's best defensive record, Montpellier the third best.
My second low-goals selection is Nice v Lens. Nice are Ligue 1's second-lowest scorers with just 17 goals from 25 games. Their 12 home fixtures have averaged just 1.92 goals a game. Eight of those games have featured under 2.5 goals.
Lens have managed just one shot on target in three away games since Laszlo Boloni took over. Defensively, they have improved - the sang et or (blood and golds) have conceded just three goals despite the calibre of opposition they've faced in those three games (Lille, PSG, Rennes).
Put Montpellier v Rennes and Nice v Lens in an under 2.5 goals double, and it will pay out at [2.36].
Best Bet: Lorient v Nancy over 2.5 goals @ [2.2]
Other Recommended Bets: Montpellier v Rennes and Nice v Lens under 2.5 goals double @ [2.36]; Rennes 0 Asian handicap at Montpellier @ [2.25].
* James Eastham has made a profit on Ligue 1 games and outright markets in each of the past two seasons and his 2010-11 running total stands at 4.53pts profit (after 5% commission) from 51pts staked (8.9% profit).
None of the big guns are involved in James' selections this week but that's no reason to give his reliable tips a miss.......
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