Premier League 
/ Andrew Atherley / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Not only does defeat in the Carling Cup final suggest Arsenal wil suffer a slump but tey will have to make do without Robin van Persie
"For Arsenal, who have now gone 21 major competitions without a trophy, the future may not be too bright either. Having missed skipper Cesc Fabregas in Sunday’s final, they now face a critical sequence of matches without Robin Van Persie and Theo Walcott."
They produced a cracking match for the neutral and Birmingham were worthy winners but what do the stats tell us about what lies in store for these two after Sunday's result?
One statistic leapt off the page after Birmingham's victory over Arsenal in the Carling Cup final: winners of that competition in the past decade have improved by 10 per cent from the final to the end of the season.
If it was true, Birmingham would be almost certain to add Premier League survival to their list of achievements this season because a 10 per cent improvement would take them to 45 points by the end of the season.
The ten-year average for Carling Cup winners does indeed reveal a 10 per cent improvement but, unfortunately, that headline statistic does not stand up to closer scrutiny because most of the improvement was achieved by a few top-performing sides. For example, Manchester United's points average was 2.14 per game before last season's Carling Cup win but rose to 2.5 in their remaining league games (a 17 per cent increase).
If we strip out Carling Cup-winning teams that finished in the top six, the stats don't look anything like as good. Since the Premier League was formed, there have been eight Carling Cup winners that went on to finish outside the top six and five of those eight regressed after their cup triumph.
The overall points average for those eight teams dropped and, of the five that regressed, four did so by ten per cent or more - precisely the opposite of what that eye-catching headline statistic told us.
If Birmingham regress by ten per cent between now and the end of the season, they will finish on 42 points, which should be enough to survive. If their performance levels drop any further, relegation is a real possibility.
And there is another telling statistic that suggests Birmingham will suffer a hangover from their cup celebrations when they host West Brom in a crucial relegation match on Saturday. Of the previous eight Carling Cup winners that finished outside the top six, only one won their next league match.
For Arsenal, who have now gone 21 major competitions without a trophy, the future may not be too bright either. Having missed skipper Cesc Fabregas in Sunday's final, they now face a critical sequence of matches without Robin Van Persie and Theo Walcott.
While Barcelona will be particularly happy they don't have to face the lightning-quick Walcott in the return leg of their Champions League tie on March 8, the knee injury suffered by Van Persie is more quantifiably a major blow for Arsenal.
This season Arsenal have won four out of five in the Premier League when Van Persie has scored and they are unbeaten in the nine games he has started, winning seven. Their win rate without him drops from 78 per cent to 56 per cent, which is a significant decrease for a team chasing trophies. As the Dutchman is set to miss the Barcelona return leg and a possible FA Cup quarter-final against Manchester United, Arsenal's trophy chances could be significantly reduced in his absence.
And there is another reason to doubt Arsenal's ability to bounce back from their Carling Cup defeat. In three of their past four trophyless seasons, the Gunners have slumped dramatically from the start of March to the end of the season, with their Premier League points average falling by at least 16 per cent in those three seasons.
Perhaps the explanation lies in their young and relatively shallow squad, but their efforts to continue their trophy quest are not going to be helped by the latest spate of injuries to key players.
Sunderland are the visitors to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday and at the odds it is worth chancing that they can get a result against wounded Arsenal.
Recommended bets
Lay Birmingham v West Brom at [2.42]
Lay Arsenal v Sunderland at [1.52]
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