The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 21 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Gutsy Gary Woodland – The latest big-priced winner in the States
"Not a great week. Jose Manuel Lara, backed at an average of [160.0], became my fourth big-priced pre-event pick to finish in the top-three without winning in just a fortnight!"
There's nothing but disappointment to report this week as Lara comes up short and Woodland wins without being backed...
England's Anthony Wall twice drew level with Raphael Jacquelin this morning at the weather-delayed Sicilian Open but a double-bogey six on the penultimate hole eventually led to a French win. Whilst in the States, Gary Woodland came out on top after a titanic battle of the rookies at the Transitions Championship.
My Bets
Not a great week. Jose Manuel Lara, backed at an average of [160.0], became my fourth big-priced pre-event pick to finish in the top-three without winning in just a fortnight. A week ago, Troy Matteson and Stephen Ames, backed at [120.0] and [55.0] respectfully, finished 2nd and 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open and that followed YE Yang's runner-up finish at the Honda Classic at [55.0]. But the real boot in the spherical objects was Gary Woodland's tenacious victory in Florida. I'd put him up as a player to watch in my Honda Classic De-Brief but I didn't have a penny on this week.
The truth is I did look, having backed the other two players highlighted in the Honda de-Brief, but I felt he wasn't quite a big enough price (at [120.0]!) before the off. I was waiting for a slightly lower profile event where his length would be a bigger advantage. I do regret not backing him in-running though...
I felt that the leaderboard was littered with players I'd want to be against but I chose Nick Watney as the man to come out on top with a round to go. Unfortunately Watney was awful, but with the benefit of hindsight it probably wasn't a surprise. It's hard to back up a low round (he'd shot a six under par 65 on Saturday) and it's even harder to win back-to-back events.
My only in-running bet not detailed in the Live Golf Blog was an all too small lay on Lara yesterday at an average of [6.6]. The Spaniard put in a bit of a charge yesterday and possibly wasn't suited by having to finish off this morning. As bad light halted play, he had momentum of sorts and Jacquelin finally looked to be showing some nerves. Quite how he even found his tee-ball, let alone was able to play it, on the par 5 12th is beyond me. It looked as dead as a dodo in the trees but in the darkening dusk the spotters did their job admirably and he was able to hack it back to the fairway. He eventually missed a short par putt but he'd had a result and I'm pretty sure he was more than happy to stop at that point.
Trailing by two from Jacquelin and one from Wall, my man Lara had just three holes to play this morning and traded at around [11.0] overnight. I took the incorrect decision to let the bet roll and his failure to birdie the par 5 16th had already sealed his fate before he messed up the last hole.
Players to swerve
It's hard to envisage Anthony Wall winning again and one of my numerous regrets this week was not laying him on Saturday when he very nearly went odds on. Jacquelin's not one to put too much faith in either but he was able to comfortably hold Wall at bay.
Anyone reading this could argue that Lara was no better in the mix this week and they'd have a point - it was especially disappointing that he shot such a poor 2nd round when holding the lead, but the difference is price. Lara, who has managed to get his head in front twice on Tour, is nearly always a monster price. The same cannot be said of Wall.
Brendon De Jonge is some talent but is he ever going to win? He's been pretty wobbly in the past whenever a chance has presented itself and he was woeful yesterday, bogeying four of the last seven holes. As with Wall, I also regret not laying De Jonge. He also nearly went odds on in-running yet finished up getting beat by five!
What have we learnt for next week?
Don't be afraid to back an outsider. What a year we're having in the States. WGC events aside, the last 12 winners on the US PGA Tour - a run that stretches right back to last October, have all been matched at a triple-figure price before the off. And this week was even more bizarre - the first four home were all matched at odds of well over [100.0] and of the top-ten, only Martin Laird and Justin Rose traded in double-figures before the off.
With the old guard failing and the new 'names' stalling, there's absolutely no reason for this trend to halt any time soon. Big-priced winners are not a rarity, they're now the norm.
Louis Oosthuizen returns to Spain this week to defend his Open de Andalucia title and Tiger Woods returns to Bay Hill in an attempt to get his career back on track with a 7th Arnold Palmer Invitational win. I'll be back tomorrow evening, or on Wednesday morning, with a preview of both events.
Jacquelin and Rose look poised for success but does our man fancy their chances?...
With a poor field at a new venue, and with the distraction of the Cheltenham Festival, selections are sparse in Europe but our man's gone mad in Florida, where he's picked out a plethora of picks......
Troy falls short in Puerto Rico but Watney redeems all with an impressive putting display at Doral......
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