Sicilian Open: Tommy to get off the mark

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tommy Fleetwood – Should like the course this week

“Playing at a venue that’s new to everyone will level out the playing field somewhat and if it does play like Kingsbarns Tommy Fleetwood could be heading for a really good week.”

Our man takes a detailed looked at this week's Race to Dubai event, where there's a brand new venue to ponder. Who's going to be suited to the Kyle Philips designed Verdura Golf & Spa?

Tournament
This is just the second ever staging of the Sicilian Open.

Venue
Verdura Golf & Spa Resort

Course Details
Par 72, 7,375 yards

Designed by Kyle Phillips, the tournament course is a composite of the three courses at the Verdura Golf & Spa Resort, which only opened in 2009. Philips was also responsible for the Grove, home of the 2006 WGC - American Express and more importantly, Kingsbarns, which is one of the three courses used for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Verdura appears to be very similar to the links course of Kingsbarns.

Useful Sites
Course Site
Hole by hole guide
Course map

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days, 9.30am on Thursday and Friday and at 12.00pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Year's Winner
2011 -Raphael Jacquelin -12 (different venue)

Market leaders
After two top-six finishes in-a-row over the last fortnight, Matteo Manassero quite rightly heads the market but he's plenty short enough at just [8.4]. He was a short-priced favourite in-running at both events but never really looked liked winning either.

Second favourite, Nicholas Colsaerts, is much harder to dismiss. He's a fine links exponent and he's been in good form so far this campaign but he's been poor in-contention a couple of times - at the Volvo Golf Champions and at the Qatar Masters. Although I think he'll contend, given he's won just once in over 200 European Tour starts, I simply can't back him at just [13.0].

Third favourite Jamie Donaldson is quite frankly a laughable price at just [18.0]. He's still looking for his first Tour victory after 248 attempts and if he gets anywhere near the leaders the nerves tend to kick in very quickly.

Selections
If Kingsbarns form is the angle in here, then Tommy Fleetwood's the man to be on. He shot 63 there in last year's Alfred Dunhill Links and although he hasn't exactly set the world alight on the European Tour so far after heading last year's Challenge Tour rankings, it's surely only a matter of time.

Playing at a venue that's new to everyone will level out the playing field somewhat and if it does play like Kingsbarns he could be heading for a really good week.

I don't quite know what to make of Scott Jamieson yet but he looks worth chancing here. His results in his rookie season last year were very in-and-out. He would very often follow a high placed finish with a missed cut and vice versa and he seems to have started out 2012 in much the same manner. A promising top-12 finish at the Qatar Masters was followed by a brilliant top-five spot at the illustrious Dubai Desert Classic but since then he's failed to finish inside the top-50 at two low key affairs - the Avantha Masters and the Trophee Hassan II. I could be wasting my money but if he is 'on' this week the venue should suit him too. His best result last season was his tied third at the Barclays Scottish Open at the Castle Stuart Links so this gaff should suit.

Last up is James Morrison, whose case I've made in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner column.

Sicilian Open Selections:
Tommy Fleetwood @ [70.0]
Scott Jamieson @ [70.0]
James Morrison @ [160.0]

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The Punter's De-Brief: The Sicilian Open and the Transitions Championship

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 21 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gutsy Gary Woodland – The latest big-priced winner in the States

"Not a great week. Jose Manuel Lara, backed at an average of [160.0], became my fourth big-priced pre-event pick to finish in the top-three without winning in just a fortnight!"

There's nothing but disappointment to report this week as Lara comes up short and Woodland wins without being backed...

England's Anthony Wall twice drew level with Raphael Jacquelin this morning at the weather-delayed Sicilian Open but a double-bogey six on the penultimate hole eventually led to a French win. Whilst in the States, Gary Woodland came out on top after a titanic battle of the rookies at the Transitions Championship.

My Bets

Not a great week. Jose Manuel Lara, backed at an average of [160.0], became my fourth big-priced pre-event pick to finish in the top-three without winning in just a fortnight. A week ago, Troy Matteson and Stephen Ames, backed at [120.0] and [55.0] respectfully, finished 2nd and 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open and that followed YE Yang's runner-up finish at the Honda Classic at [55.0]. But the real boot in the spherical objects was Gary Woodland's tenacious victory in Florida. I'd put him up as a player to watch in my Honda Classic De-Brief but I didn't have a penny on this week.

The truth is I did look, having backed the other two players highlighted in the Honda de-Brief, but I felt he wasn't quite a big enough price (at [120.0]!) before the off. I was waiting for a slightly lower profile event where his length would be a bigger advantage. I do regret not backing him in-running though...

I felt that the leaderboard was littered with players I'd want to be against but I chose Nick Watney as the man to come out on top with a round to go. Unfortunately Watney was awful, but with the benefit of hindsight it probably wasn't a surprise. It's hard to back up a low round (he'd shot a six under par 65 on Saturday) and it's even harder to win back-to-back events.

My only in-running bet not detailed in the Live Golf Blog was an all too small lay on Lara yesterday at an average of [6.6]. The Spaniard put in a bit of a charge yesterday and possibly wasn't suited by having to finish off this morning. As bad light halted play, he had momentum of sorts and Jacquelin finally looked to be showing some nerves. Quite how he even found his tee-ball, let alone was able to play it, on the par 5 12th is beyond me. It looked as dead as a dodo in the trees but in the darkening dusk the spotters did their job admirably and he was able to hack it back to the fairway. He eventually missed a short par putt but he'd had a result and I'm pretty sure he was more than happy to stop at that point.

Trailing by two from Jacquelin and one from Wall, my man Lara had just three holes to play this morning and traded at around [11.0] overnight. I took the incorrect decision to let the bet roll and his failure to birdie the par 5 16th had already sealed his fate before he messed up the last hole.

Players to swerve

It's hard to envisage Anthony Wall winning again and one of my numerous regrets this week was not laying him on Saturday when he very nearly went odds on. Jacquelin's not one to put too much faith in either but he was able to comfortably hold Wall at bay.

Anyone reading this could argue that Lara was no better in the mix this week and they'd have a point - it was especially disappointing that he shot such a poor 2nd round when holding the lead, but the difference is price. Lara, who has managed to get his head in front twice on Tour, is nearly always a monster price. The same cannot be said of Wall.

Brendon De Jonge is some talent but is he ever going to win? He's been pretty wobbly in the past whenever a chance has presented itself and he was woeful yesterday, bogeying four of the last seven holes. As with Wall, I also regret not laying De Jonge. He also nearly went odds on in-running yet finished up getting beat by five!

What have we learnt for next week?

Don't be afraid to back an outsider. What a year we're having in the States. WGC events aside, the last 12 winners on the US PGA Tour - a run that stretches right back to last October, have all been matched at a triple-figure price before the off. And this week was even more bizarre - the first four home were all matched at odds of well over [100.0] and of the top-ten, only Martin Laird and Justin Rose traded in double-figures before the off.

With the old guard failing and the new 'names' stalling, there's absolutely no reason for this trend to halt any time soon. Big-priced winners are not a rarity, they're now the norm.

Louis Oosthuizen returns to Spain this week to defend his Open de Andalucia title and Tiger Woods returns to Bay Hill in an attempt to get his career back on track with a 7th Arnold Palmer Invitational win. I'll be back tomorrow evening, or on Wednesday morning, with a preview of both events.

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