US Masters 
/ Steven Rawlings / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Phil Mickelson on 18 last year, moments after scuppering the Punter’s wager
“The stats suggest that two strokes should be favourite and anything over [4.5] will be a very fair price.”
Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around...
I've looked back over the last 30 years results at Augusta and the thing that sticks out like the most painful of sore thumbs is Tiger Woods' demolition job in 1997, when he won by a staggering 12 strokes. Given how close it is most years that really was a remarkable achievement, the likes of which I doubt we'll ever see again.
It's usually a tight affair and only four times in that period was the margin any greater than three.
Thanks to Phil Mickelson's icing-on-the-cake 72nd hole birdie, three was the margin last year, as it was two years earlier when Trevor Immelman won. Prior to that, the only other three-stroke win was Wood's 2002 success.
With ten occurrences, two strokes is the most common winning margin. The event has gone to a play-off seven times and has been won by just one stroke six times, so another way to play the market could be to lay the higher margin outcomes, especially given that Woods isn't the force of old and it's hard to see anyone else streaking away with it.
That last gasp birdie by Lefty scuppered my two stroke margin bet last year but I'm going try again this time around. The stats suggest that two strokes should be favourite and anything over [4.5] will be a very fair price.
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