Grand National Thoughts: Oscar, Oscar - It's Time to win, over

Tipping / Kieran Packman / 06 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tidal Bay is one to oppose for Kieran Packman

"‘Mercurial’, ‘enigmatic’, ‘a conundrum’. All of these are likely to be used this week to describe Tidal Bay. ‘A right dog’ is probably that which will resonate with most punters."

Kieran Packman gives us his unique take on the National betting

The National winner - Oscar Time. Irish National form. Reliable jumper. Jockey with good record over National fences. Favourable Timeform rating. At the 'right' end of the weights. Irish trainer I've never heard of. All positives. Stamina is his potential Achilles heel, but I'm inclined to think his fading finish last time out was attributable to fitness as this was always going to be the focus.

A Lively Long Shot - Becauseicouldntsee. Still relatively unexposed and, like many of the Irish contingent, has intentionally been lightly-raced with this race in mind this season. His second in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010 proved both his stamina, his ability to show his form on good ground and showcased his potential for a race of this calibre. 25/1+ underestimates his credentials.

A Horse To Place - Don't Push It. Looked far from an obvious type for the National fences 12 months ago, then went and won anyway. I think the fairly comfortable nature of his win has been overlooked, not least by the official handicapper, and he'll be in the frame if he turns up in the same heart.

A Poor Favourite - Backstage. Gordon Elliott is a superb trainer and for that reason this horse has to be considered. But I think nearly every horse in the National would have won the point-to-point this lad did recently and yet he shortened in the market. It is highly dubious whether he'll see out this trip. Second favourite as I write despite not having shown solid form for nigh-on two years. Not for me.

A Place Lay - Tidal Bay. 'Mercurial', 'enigmatic', 'a conundrum'. All of these are likely to be used this week to describe Tidal Bay. 'A right dog' is probably that which will resonate with most punters. Clearly has the ability to play a part if he's inclined to, but far more likely to turn his nose up at the first.

Three lays today courtesy of Timeform's US Team......

There are some smart sorts on show in this mile-and-three-quarter listed event......

Timeform's Phil Thompson makes the selections for today's placepot at Exeter......

Betfair website