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/ Sean Calvert / 16 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Sean's backing Rafa for Monte Carlo glory
"The shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday’s championship match."
Fresh from an intense three set victory over Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal has to summon his energy and composure for Sunday's final against David Ferrer. Who is Sean Calvert backing?
Despite Jurgen Melzer's single-handed attempts to derail me this week, we should be still in profit after my original advice of a Nadal v Ferrer final came to fruition on Saturday.
The mercurial Melzer went down in straights to Ferrer in their semi-final and Andy Murray gave it all he had against Rafa, but was ground into submission in the end by the world number one.
So, those who were on my advice to back Nadal at [1.4] and Ferrer at [25.0] at the outset are comfortably in the money. But what of the final itself?
Murray showed that Nadal isn't totally unbeatable on the red dirt by grabbing the second set in their last four clash, but I think the shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday's championship match.
As you would expect, Nadal and Ferrer have quite a history, with Rafa leading 12-4 overall and 8-1 on the red dirt - Ferrer's only win coming way back in 2004 in Stuttgart.
Since then, Ferrer has managed to wrestle just two sets from Nadal in eight meetings and, although Nadal hasn't been at his peak this week in Monte-Carlo, it would take a brave individual to back Ferrer to buck that trend on Sunday.
Ferrer has been impressive here, but it's hard to see what he'll bring to the court that's new or different from their previous encounters. His strength is his consistency, stamina and dogged obstinance on the court, but these are all traits that today's opponent has in abundance and Nadal is better at it.
On these slow clay courts in Monte-Carlo, Ferrer's weight of shot is rarely going to breach Nadal's excellent defences and to expect him to do it time and again over three long sets is too much.
Unless Ferrer brings something significantly different to the table - and I can't think what that would be - Rafa should come through in two sets and that looks the bet at around [price]
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