German Football 
/ Kevin Hatchard / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Golden boy. Mario Gotze has been one of Dortmund's shining lights this season
"I’m dumbfounded by the big price on offer for a BVB victory, so take advantage and back Dortmund to win at [3.75]."
Borussia Dortmund have already been crowned champions but with the attitude they've shown and the type of football they've been playing they're unlikely to stop winning anytime soon. Take advantage, says Kevin Hatchard.
Last weekend Borussia Dortmund sealed their first Bundesliga title since 2002, and their success is richly deserved. Charismatic coach Jurgen Klopp put together a youthful squad brimming with confidence and enthusiasm, and they have played with pace and panache. By Klopp's own admission his side were too wasteful in possession last season, unable to dominate games throughout. This time around BVB have played with much more control, and Nuri Sahin has blossomed into a playmaker who can run a game from start to finish.
While young attacking talents like Shinji Kagawa and Mario Gotze have emerged and been lavishly praised, Dortmund's success has been built on a rock-solid defence. Miserly BVB have conceded just 19 goals in 32 matches - the next-best defence (Mainz) has conceded 37. This is a remarkable achievement when you consider the ages of the regular back-four - left-back Marcel Schmelzer is 23, right-back Lukasz Piszczek is 25, while centre-backs Neven Subotic and Mats Hummels are both 22.
There's no doubt Dortmund wobbled after the winter break, and a serious injury to Kagawa dented their attack. However, with the pressure of the title race now released, BVB are dangerous opponents for anyone. They've picked up a league-high 11 away wins, and I fancy them to make it 12 at Werder Bremen.
While Dortmund have vastly exceeded expectations, 13th-placed Werder have underperformed feebly. They have defended badly all season (58 goals conceded), with Mikael Silvestre and Sebastian Prodl accidents waiting to happen. At the other end of the pitch the departure of star string-puller Mesut Ozil to Real Madrid has left a gaping void - Werder have scored just 43 goals, compared to last season's tally of 71.
Werder are still not safe from the drop, with just four points between them and the bottom three. This puts extra pressure on a side that's won just five out of 16 home games.
RECOMMENDED BET: I'm dumbfounded by the big price on offer for a BVB victory, so take advantage and back Dortmund to win at [3.75]
Eintracht Frankfurt [2.1] vs FC Cologne [3.9], the draw [3.6]
Last week's 3-0 defeat at Mainz saw Eintracht slip to third from bottom, so securing a victory against fellow strugglers Cologne is now of paramount importance. Eintracht are yet to win in five games under new coach Christoph Daum, but they have been desperately unlucky not to pick up more points. They led 1-0 in matches against Wolfsburg and Bayern Munich, but conceded late levellers on both occasions.
Eintracht have become embroiled in the relegation scrap because at some stage over Christmas they forgot how to score goals. Since the winter break they have scored just six goals in fifteen games. Bearing that in mind it's lucky that Cologne are coming to town, because they've conceded more goals away from home than anyone else in the Bundesliga.
As we saw in last week's win over Bayer Leverkusen, Cologne can b
eat anyone in front of their own fans. The story is somewhat different on the road - the Billy Goats have lost their last three away games 4-1, 5-1 and 6-2. Cologne have the worst away record in the league, with just one win and three draws from 16 games.
RECOMMENDED BETS: Eintracht have improved since Daum took charge, and Cologne are abysmal away from home. Back Eintracht to win at [2.1]. In-play bettors should note that Eintracht haven't scored before half-time in any of their last five games, so you could wait for that [2.1] to lengthen.
Stuttgart [2.16] vs Hannover [3.7], the draw [3.65]
Hannover's shock loss at home to Borussia Monchengladbach saw them drop behind Bayern in the race for Champions League qualification, and I suspect their morale has taken a huge dip. The last thing they need is a trip to in-form Stuttgart, who have surged clear of the relegation dogfight with three straight wins.
The Swabians have lost just one of their last nine games, and the timely resurgence of striker Cacau (three goals in two games) has given them a cutting edge.
RECOMMENDED BET: Hannover have surprised everyone, but the Champions League dream dies here. Back Stuttgart to win at [2.16]
It's been a pretty tough last six or seven years for Borussia Dortmund, who in different circumstances may have gone into adminstration rather than winning this year's Bundesliga. Richard Aikman explains how they did it....
Why Michael Ballack had to apologise, how Cologne are far better at home than their league position suggests and the best bets ahead of another weekend of Bundesliga action....
Kevin Hatchard looks at the comings and goings in the Bundesliga this week and, of course, the best bets from this weekend's matches...
No comments:
Post a Comment