Championship 
/ Andrew French / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Forest will be hoping Tudgay can score again and get Forest's chances
"So, I think Forest will edge this first leg – but I believe there is an away goal for the visitors in it, if they go looking for it. The Swans were by no means the highest scorers on the road during the regular season, but they still managed to find the net at least once in 17 of their 23 away games."
History suggests the winner of the first semi-final of the Play-Offs gets promoted so all eyes will be on Thursday's game. These are two evenly matched teams going head-to-head here but Forest should draw first blood, says Andrew French.
If you believe in recent trends, decide who you think will progress from this semi-final and then back them for promotion: in six of the last seven seasons, the Championship Play-Offs have been won by the side that came out on top of the first semi-final.
Much of the outcome of this one depends upon which Nottingham Forest turns up: will it be the side that has won five of its last six games and scored 17 goals in the process? Or will it be the Forest team which before that went nine games without winning, in the process seriously denting their chances of getting this far in the first place?
Forest ended the regular season with four successive wins, although Swansea managed three on the spin of their own.
Despite the Welsh side claiming a notable success at Millwall in their penultimate fixture, it's their patchy away form coupled with Forest's generally impressive home record which makes me want to side with Billy Davies' boys in this first leg.
Prior to winning at The Den, Swansea lost four of their previous five on the road - and two of those defeats came at relegated Preston and Scunthorpe. The Welsh side lost 11 away games, more than any other side in the top eight - and their record away to top-half sides was seven defeats in 10 outings.
The Swans like to build from the back and will not be rushed - I'm not sure they'll be allowed that luxury at The City Ground, especially as Forest will want to erase memories of their home Play-Off leg last season, when Blackpool beat them 4-3.
So, I think Forest will edge this first leg - but I believe there is an away goal for the visitors in it, if they go looking for it. The Swans were by no means the highest scorers on the road during the regular season, but they still managed to find the net at least once in 17 of their 23 away games.
Therefore, I'd be looking at the likes of 2-1 and 3-1 home wins in the Correct Score market, but for a slightly safer bet, I'm suggesting simply backing both teams to score - that is a bet that would have paid out in 65% of Championship Play-Off semi-final first legs during the last 10 seasons.
Best bet: Back Forest to win at [2.38]
Recommended bet: Back both teams to score at [1.9]
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