Ante-Post Betting 
/ Mark Powell-Bevan / 30 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Middleton winner Midday should arguably be favourite for the Coronation Cup
"the simple facts are that Midday has the more reliable (and arguably better) form, gets 3 lb from her rival, and has shown she acts around Epsom..."
The Oaks isn't the only Group 1 at Epsom on Friday, as there's also the Coronation Cup, in which Aidan O'Brien's St Nicholas Abbey is currently a short-priced favourite. But does he deserve to be?...
No. There's no point beating around the bush. Yes, St Nicholas Abbey is a high-class colt who still has potential, having run out an impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy in 2009 and got his career back on track when bolting up in the Ormonde at Chester in May. But there are still niggling doubts about him, including whether he can take a sustained period of racing, remembering that he raced only twice in between (missed the 2010 Derby, for which he was ante-post favourite, through injury) those two successes, and exactly what that Chester form is worth, the second and third, Allied Powers and Harris Tweed, arguably not seen at their best for different reasons.
At the time of writing, St Nicholas Abbey is [2.06] to win the Coronation Cup at Epsom, but that price is surely too short bearing in mind the opposition he will face compared to at Chester. Granted, there isn't much strength in depth on Friday (O'Brien says SNA will be his only runner and the James Given-trained pair Dandino and Indian Days have plenty to find), but in Henry Cecil's Midday, St Nicholas Abbey is going to face by far his most formidable challenger so far.
Midday has been performing consistently at the top level for a long time now, having finished runner-up in the Epsom Oaks in 2009, going on to win two Nassaus, a Yorkshire Oaks, a Vermeille, a Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (unlucky loser last year) and, most recently, the Middleton at York, in which she ran out a comfortable two-length winner over Sajjhaa.
That York form, along with a number of other efforts that Midday has produced looks solid, something which can't necessarily be said of St Nicholas Abbey's nine-length demolition job around a track like Chester, which makes it hard to fathom why Midday is currently trading at [2.6], especially as she will be in receipt of the fillies allowance.
There's surely a bit of the 'O'Brien Factor' at play with St Nicholas Abbey's price, in a race that the Ballydoyle trainer has won four times in the last six years (with Yeats, Scorpion, Soldier of Fortune and Fame And Glory), which is justified to an extent, but the simple facts are that Midday has the more reliable (and arguably better) form, gets 3 lb from her rival, and has shown she acts around Epsom, making her a strong selection.
Don't be surprised if the odds are much tighter on Friday, perhaps even with Midday going off favourite?!
Recommendation
Back Midday @ [2.6] for the Coronation Cup at Epsom on Friday
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