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/ Simon Rowlands / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Uncle Mo: Can he bounce back from the Wood Memorial?
"Finding the winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby is a bit like one of those Agatha Christie murder-mysteries. You know: one of those in which, by a process of elimination, you come to the conclusion that no-one could possibly have done it. Or, in this case, will do it."
Simon Rowlands sifts through the clues to come up with some Kentucky Derby wagers
Finding the winner of this year's Kentucky Derby is a bit like one of those Agatha Christie murder-mysteries. You know: one of those in which, by a process of elimination, you come to the conclusion that no-one could possibly have done it. Or, in this case, will do it.
Many of the chief suspects have fallen by the wayside in recent months, while the long-time obvious "fit" on profiling - Uncle Mo - has now secured himself a cast-iron alibi with a shock defeat in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time up and a draw out in the car park. There is even, at the time of writing, some doubt as to his running.
Have people written off Uncle Mo prematurely? Well, it is certainly possible. He was a brilliant two-year-old, easily the best of these judged on his Breeders' Cup Juvenile win, and he was reported to have been off colour at Aqueduct.
But that was just four weeks ago, and there has always been a slight doubt as to whether he would cope with this still longer distance in a race which tends to be run at an unforgiving pace. I am one who has put a line through Uncle Mo, but not with great conviction. Ultimately, however, his odds seem pretty skinny given what happened last time.
Uncle Mo's best Timeform rating of 127 would win him an average Kentucky Derby, but everything else needs to improve several pounds, if not more, for the same to be said of them.
Dialed In is favourite following his win in the Florida Derby last month, but almost by default. He accounted for Shackleford by just a head that day, and Shackleford can be backed at big odds now. Sectional analysis suggests the race panned out nicely that day for a horse with Dialed In's come-from-behind style, but at least it is not hard to see something similar happening again at the weekend.
Other major trial winners include Archarcharch (Arkansas Derby, but beaten in three of his five previous outings), the wonderfully-named Pants On Fire (Louisiana Derby following a string of defeats) and Mucho Macho Man (Risen Star Stakes, since when he's made it six losses from eight appearances). And let's not forget the Aidan O'Brien-trained Master of Hounds, beaten just a nose by the smart Khawlah in the UAE Derby and arguably the most legitimate foreign hope in years.
It is possible to see one or more of them getting into the shake-up, on a good day, but it is difficult to see any of them winning.
Sherlock Holmes once famously said: "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."
It is nothing like that cut and dried where the Kentucky Derby is concerned, but there are a couple of horses that I find it impossible to eliminate. They are, to extend the metaphor to near-breaking point, the equivalent of spotting the butler shifting nervously from one foot to another or a chance discovery of Colonel Mustard in the library trying to stuff a piece of lead piping down the back of the sofa.
Firstly, there's Nehro, unrecognisable from the horse who finished tailed off in a maiden in January when a strong-finishing second in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derbys. He is going the right way, and the longer trip should suit him very well.
Then there's Midnight Interlude, like Nehro a late-starter, but winner of the Santa Anita Derby last time on just his fourth lifetime start. Midnight Interlude has a bit of early toe, and that could keep him out of trouble in what is often a roughhouse of a contest.
Those two would be my "most wanted" for Exacta tickets, while Dialed In should be included for Trifecta purposes.
The big race is due off at 23:24 BST on Saturday and will be covered live on Betfair and on Timeform Radio.
Before then, the fillies get their turn on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks (off at 22:45 BST and again on Timeform Radio and Betfair). This looks a bit easier to figure out than the Derby and I am hopeful that Zazu will oblige.
Zazu has locked horns with Turbulent Descent on her last two starts and may even find this an easier task with that high-class rival absent. She has a couple of decisions over Plum Pretty to her name, and that filly - a 25-length winner last time - may give her the most to do now.
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