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/ Simon Bray / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment Beautiful Churchill Downs - what we'd give to be there Saturday!
"From a wagering stand point, there's nothing better than taking a stand against short- priced horses and I will do that on Saturday."
The spotlight falls on Churchill Downs this weekend and Simon Bray is boldly opposing some short-priced runners at the top of the Kentucky Derby market...
Champion two-year-old Uncle Mo was diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection after his first ever defeat in the Wood Memorial. While this could have been a legitimate excuse, I just don't buy it. I do not think he can go the one-and-a-quarter miles of the Kentucky Derby. He will still attract plenty of support because of his lofty status as a future super star and the fact his exuberant owner Mike Repole said: "If he is not the favorite Derby Day, I will make him the favorite."
From a wagering stand point, there's nothing better than taking a stand against short- priced horses and I will do that on Saturday. His last work was in company with his stable-mate Stay Thirsty who will also run in the Derby. Todd Pletcher, who trains both colts, called the moves "a textbook-kind of work, both seemed to handle the going well and It indicates that both horses are fit and coming up to this in good order."
If Uncle Mo does not assume the favorite's role, that will be taken by Florida Derby winner Dialed In. He is another short-priced horse that I will play against. I was not impressed with his race in Miami. He has trained under the radar at a training centre in South Florida away from all the press and hustle and bustle of Churchill Downs
The question that will remain in the minds of most handicappers, however, is will one serious half-mile workout in five weeks be enough to get him ready on Derby Day?
Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Nick Zito, for one, thinks it is. "It's the everyday training that we do with this horse that does it, not the works," he said. "This is a very rippled horse. He's conditioned unbelievably. This horse will not be short. I can't guarantee anything else. I can't guarantee he'll win. That's up to you know who. But I can guarantee he'll come with his run and he won't be short."
He added: "This (training in Florida) is a good warm-up for what we'll be going into next week up there. Remember, he's a lightly-raced horse that we've been kind of babying up to this point. He's a happy horse down here and I like the track. You have to be careful you don't go over the edge, but he's ready now to peak on the right day. If he has a good week, he'll be a serious horse a week from Saturday."
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert didn't get the dry track he wanted for Midnight Interlude's final serious work prior to the Derby. But the lightly raced three-year-old turned in the fastest time among seven workers at five furlongs on May 2 but the trainer added that he didn't learn a lot from Midnight Interlude's breeze because of the track's wet condition.
"When you're working in the slop like this, the only thing you get out of it is that 'he went well; he came out of it well,' " Baffert said. "You can't grade a work and say, 'Oh, its fantastic' because it's in slop. I can't do anything about it, so I just have to deal with it. If it rains (on Derby Day), at least we've been over a wet track. I know one day when it was dry here and he galloped over it, he looked really good."
Midnight Interlude has raced only four times in his career and he didn't make his debut until January of this year. His lack of experience showed during the work, according to Baffert.
"He's still green and he's still learning how to run," the trainer said. "Once he got in front of his workmate, he wanted to shut it down a little bit. He's still figuring it out."
Trainer Eddie Kenneally did not waste any time getting Santiva to the track at Churchill Downs on the morning of Monday, May 2, as he was one of the first horses out when the track opened for training at 17:45. "He finished up well with his workmate just like I wanted," Kenneally said. "We're less than a week out from the race so it's more maintenance and you're not looking for anything special. I thought he went very well."
The improving Nehro worked for trainer Steve Asmussen over the same sloppy surface. "It went nice and smooth," Asmussen said. "Didn't do a lot with him at all; Saturday will be three races in six weeks and we just hope he continues to progress. Obviously it's a big assignment, but the mile-and-a-quarter suits him. I think we're just letting him be happy. The horse hasn't always been a big work horse; I think the progression's been pretty slow. He took a big step from his maiden race to the Louisiana Derby."
Finally, Trainer Kathleen O'Connell said she hopes the rain that fell on Louisville this weekend will end in time for the Derby. O'Connell, who trains Watch Me Go, said he despised wet and muddy tracks. The trainer sent the colt to Churchill Downs to breeze early on Monday, following a horrendous thunderstorm. After the work O'Connell said: "I just don't think he's as comfortable on an 'off' surface." With the forecast for no rain on Saturday Watch Me Go should have no excuse with the racing surface. The only excuse he may have is that he is not good enough.
The draw for the Kentucky Derby takes place on Wednesday afternoon at Churchill Downs, after which we can finalise our selections. Post position can be make or break as evidenced last year when Lookin at Lucky, the best horse in the race, was compromised by a bad post and in turn a bad trip.
Here are my top five Kentucky Derby selections:
1. Nehro
2. Mucho Macho Man
3. Archarcharch
4. Midnight Interlude T
5. Dialed In
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