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/ Simon Bray / 03 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Will Simon be jumping for Joy after the Oaks?
"Joyful Victory will be the key to all our Oaks wagers."
With only a few days to go before the 137th running of the Oaks, Simon Bray reports from Stateside on a major development and selects his top five runners for the big race...
Early Monday morning, it was announced that R Heat Lightning, a horse that may have gone to the post as the favorite, was withdrawn due to a knee injury. It is important in these last few days to pay attention to the final works and last minute preparations before we make our final decisions when the fields are eventually set.
Even though a deep field is expected when entries are drawn later this week, it now appears that Joyful Victory will assume the favorite's role. She is the filly to beat in the Oaks. She had her last major prep work on May 1 and worked incredibly well over the wet Churchill surface. With a long range forecast for some rain on Oaks day, but clear and dry on Derby day, it was important to see that Joyful Victory could handle a wet racetrack and she proved she could. She will be the key to all our Oaks wagers.
Zazu worked this past Saturday morning in California, pleasing her trainer John Sadler. Speaking to me on Sunday, he said, "Everything is going to plan and I am very happy with her." The last major hurdle left for Zazu is the flight to Kentucky.
Bob Baffert trainee Plum Pretty worked over a wet surface on April 27 at Churchill Downs. "The track was in pretty good shape today," Baffert said. "The last time I worked these horses, it didn't rain enough and the track was sort of drying out heavy and mucky. I was really happy with the way they worked today because they went over it well." Martin Garcia will ride the filly and try to give Baffert his second victory in the race after the great Silverbulletday won in 1999.
With the defection of R Heat Lightning, trainer Todd Pletcher may be represented by Her Smile who was purchased a couple of weeks ago by celebrity chef Bobby Flay. Her participation was still in limbo this past weekend but, now that her stable mate is withdrawn, it seems more likely that she will run. Although winless this year, she's coming into this race with an improving pattern. Bobby Flay has already "tweeted" this week that he is excited for the Kentucky Oaks, so expect to see her in the field.
Daisy Devine had her final work on May 2 over the Louisville surface. "Perfect," trainer Andrew McKeever said after the exercise: "I told the rider to let her do what she wants to do. I wanted a little decent work because she's going to have to run hard and she looked good. She really quickened up at the eighth pole when he asked her to, so it was perfect. And she came back happy. We were just looking to keep her focused and try to keep her sweet and happy until she runs," Daisy Devine was the winner of the Fair Ground Oaks in her last start and has won three races from five starts.
With most of the major contenders having put the finishing touches to their preparations, it seems likely we will have a full field (around 13 or 14 horses). Entrants will be drawn Tuesday morning after which we can put together our final plays for the big day.
Here are my top five contenders:
1. Joyful Victory
2. Zazu
3. Kathmanblu
4. Plum Pretty
5. Daisy Devine
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