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/ Paul Krishnamurty / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment 
The greatest links player ever?
"I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds."
We may have seen some recent shocks at the Majors but the Senior British Open tends to be dominated by the game's elder leading lights. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up a stellar field for this week's event.
Concluding a magnificent month for British golf, the Senior Open Championship fills it's usual slot, immediately following the main event at Royal St George's. While nobody would try and draw meaningful comparisons between seniors and the main tour Majors, so far as prestige is concerned, that shouldn't act as any sort of deterrant to punters. In fact, the formbook tends to stand up much better in seniors events, due to the lack of strength in depth at this level.
Whereas the 'proper' Open Championship has now yielded six shock winners in the last 13 renewals, this seniors major has been largely predictable. Five of the last six have gone to three very obvious names - Tom Watson, Loren Roberts and Bernhard Langer. Furthermore, all bar a few of the places were filled by similar big names near the top of the betting.
Our task might be eased further by the absence of some big-names at Walton Heath. In addition to twice former champ Roberts, there's no Greg Norman or Fred Couples. Moreover, many of those who have thrived in recent Seniors Opens are in much worse form this time around. Fred Funk for instance finished third and second in the last two renewals, yet has barely challenged on this year's Champions Tour. Likewise, consistent types Larry Mize and Jay Haas seem to be in decline. Corey Pavin remains a big contender, but isn't in the same form as last year, when finishing runner-up in this, in addition to some excellent PGA Tour numbers. Even Langer, usually extremely classy amongst the seniors, arrives under something of a cloud following thumb surgery. Worryingly, he missed the cut at both the Open, and previously on one of his favourite German courses.
All of this points towards some very obvious candidates, not least [9.2] favourite Tom Lehman. Lehman is easily the best of this crowd on the Champions Tour, winning three times this season. Indeed, he remains competitive against the younger men, as illustrated by an excellent 22nd in the Open. The only concern is that, for the last two years, Lehman has arrived here on the back of a fortnight's golf at the higher level, and gone on to underperform in the Seniors. Nevertheless, he is surely too good to not win this event at some stage, especially as a former Open champion. I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds.
If Lehman does underperform again, another former Open champion is well-placed to take advantage. Nick Price is one of the best links exponents of the last few decades, winning at Turnberry in 1994, after previously being touched off by Open legends Watson and Ballesteros. Given that record, it is surprising that Price has never bothered to make the journey across for this seniors major, and the Zimbabwean could reap rewards for making the effort this time. He's certainly been amongst the best of these on the Champions Tour this season, winning the Toshiba Classic and twice finishing runner-up since, including last time out.
It is also impossible to ignore Tom Watson, whose heroics at Sandwich reinforced the hard to dispute assertion that he's the greatest links player of all time. On that evidence, plus the fact he won the Seniors PGA recently, Tom hasn't deteriorated since last winning this event in 2007. At the age of 61, there must be a concern that a second tough links event so soon after Royal St George's will be too much, but he didn't fare badly when eighth two years ago, days after losing a play-off at Turnberry.
Next up another man with a solid record in both this event and the Open. John Cook was runner-up to Faldo at Muirfield in 1992, and also to Bruce Vaughan in the Seniors three years ago. He's enjoying a fine season, winning three times and never far from contention, and should be fresher than his principal rivals who played Sandwich. Cook has a very reliable long game, and looks a rock-solid pick for both win and place markets.
Indeed, place markets often yield the best value in seniors events due to the lack of strength in depth. Take a look back through recent leaderboards in this event, and you'll struggle to find many who started the week in triple-figures. One very consistent character who rates a must-bet across all markets is last year's third, Peter Senior. The Aussie veteran is a model of consistency, registering five top-tens on his last eight Champions Tour starts, and remains highly competitive against the younger men. Only last December, Senior won the prestigious Australian PGA.
Finally another Aussie. Peter Fowler has been in stellar form on the European Seniors Tour, registering four top-threes in his last five starts, winning twice. As in his younger days, Fowler has a very reliable long game, and possesses more power than most of his peers. That could be an advantage around Walton Heath, and those recent numbers alone must make Fowler a worthy wager.
Recommended Bets
Outright
6pts Tom Lehman @ [9.2]
4pts Nick Price @ [13.0]
3pts Tom Watson @ [15.0]
3pts John Cook @ [18.0]
2pts Peter Senior @ [28.0]
1pt Peter Fowler @ [50.0]
Top-five finish
4pts Nick Price @ [4.0]
4pts John Cook @ [5.2]
2pts Peter Senior @ [7.0]
2pts Peter Fowler @ [9.0]
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