Showing posts with label champs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label champs. Show all posts

March 1, 2012

World Cup 2014 Betting: Brazil look anything but world champs

World Cup 2014 RSS / / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Great expectations. Santos pair Neymar and Ganso will be under pressure to perform for Brazil in 2014.

Great expectations. Santos pair Neymar and Ganso will be under pressure to perform for Brazil in 2014.

"Mano Menezes’s side is supposedly a Brazil returning to its roots,
turning its back on the physicality and snarling midfielders of Luiz
Felipe Scolari and Dunga and embracing once again a fluid, short-passing game."

After a slightly laboured and lucky win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, Jonathan Wilson is distinctly unimpressed with this Brazil side, hosts and favourites of the 2014 World Cup. There's a long road of hard work ahead for coach Mano Menezes...

Friendlies, of course, are never particularly reliable guides. There's always need for caution when assessing them, but the fact is that Brazil, for the next two and a bit years, will have nothing else to go on. That's the disadvantage of holding the Copa America the year after the World Cup.

It may attract more attention than it would if it clashed with the Euros, but it also means that when a South American team hosts the World Cup, it must endure three years of largely meaningless games in preparation. Anybody who watched Tuesday's 2-1 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina, though, may think it's just as well they have so long to prepare. Certainly at this stage, the [4.6] on offer for them to be champions looks dreadfully short.

Mano Menezes's side is supposedly a Brazil returning to its roots, turning its back on the physicality and snarling midfielders of Luiz Felipe Scolari and Dunga and embracing once again a fluid, short-passing game. The bobbly pitch in St Gallen didn't help, but this was as far from fluency as its possible to get.

There were nods to the Brazil of stereotype - a goal from an overlapping full-back and some comically bad defending (although the idea of Brazil's inability to defend is something of a myth: they've actually conceded fewer goals per game at World Cups than (West) Germany) - but that aside, this was another stodgy, fitful performance, a win salvaged only by Sasa Papac's late own goal.

While that was unfortunate, and largely attributable to a divot, there had been a sense it had been coming, as the second-half arrival of Paulo Henrique Ganso to replace Ronaldinho shifted the game in Brazil's favour. At 22, Ganso is young and exciting, but his success brings with it a great sigh of familiarity.

For the truth is that Ganso is an archetype, and example of the problems of Brazilian football. He suffered injuries last season, but excelled in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores final as Santos beat Penarol. He went to the Copa America with the hopes of the nation of his shoulders - and did nothing. Defences that squeezed tight on him, that played a pressing game, seemed to leave him bewildered. He could not cope with the physical attention he received from - particularly - Paraguay. It would be absurd to blame him for Brazil's quarter-final exit, but not more absurd than to expect him to somehow carry Brazil to glory in two years time. "He is winning back confidence, the confidence that we always had that he could be one of the great midfield creators that Brazilian football has produced in the last few years," said Menezes.

Neymar, the Mohican-haired 20 year old, of course is the other great young hope, another member of that Santos side. He is talented, of course, but he too could probably do with a year of toughening up in Europe before the tournament - and he is not helped by the likes of Pele overhyping him. "He struggled to adapt to the game, to understand how to play against opponents with those characteristics," Menezes
acknowledged.

In some ways, though, the bigger problems are defensive. Lucio, at last, has been written off as too slow - something that was clear in the Copa America as he laboured to cover for the surges of Dani Alves. Thiago Silva remains arguably the best central defender in the world, but he requires a partner. On the evidence of Tuesday, it is not David Luiz, a player prone to wandering upfield at unpredictable intervals and seemingly incapable of holding a basic defensive line. Perhaps Dede, the much-hyped 23-year-old Vasco da Gama centre-back, will prove the answer.

For Bosnia, meanwhile, it was another case of crumbling at the last when something significant was in reach. A draw against Brazil is neither here nor there in the greater scheme of things, of course, but to concede an injury-time own-goal after successive play-off defeats in qualifiers begins to seem like a pattern. Drawn with Greece,
Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia and Liechtenstein in World Cup qualifying, though, and with a side reaching maturity they will rarely have a better chance of reaching the finals. They are [3.4] to top their group.

The hosts should triumph, but it's backing both teams to score that provides the best route to profit in this World Cup qualifier, argues Michael Lintorn....

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July 19, 2011

Senior British Open: Former champs look a class apart

General RSS / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The greatest links player ever?

The greatest links player ever?

"I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds."

We may have seen some recent shocks at the Majors but the Senior British Open tends to be dominated by the game's elder leading lights. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up a stellar field for this week's event.


Concluding a magnificent month for British golf, the Senior Open Championship fills it's usual slot, immediately following the main event at Royal St George's. While nobody would try and draw meaningful comparisons between seniors and the main tour Majors, so far as prestige is concerned, that shouldn't act as any sort of deterrant to punters. In fact, the formbook tends to stand up much better in seniors events, due to the lack of strength in depth at this level.

Whereas the 'proper' Open Championship has now yielded six shock winners in the last 13 renewals, this seniors major has been largely predictable. Five of the last six have gone to three very obvious names - Tom Watson, Loren Roberts and Bernhard Langer. Furthermore, all bar a few of the places were filled by similar big names near the top of the betting.

Our task might be eased further by the absence of some big-names at Walton Heath. In addition to twice former champ Roberts, there's no Greg Norman or Fred Couples. Moreover, many of those who have thrived in recent Seniors Opens are in much worse form this time around. Fred Funk for instance finished third and second in the last two renewals, yet has barely challenged on this year's Champions Tour. Likewise, consistent types Larry Mize and Jay Haas seem to be in decline. Corey Pavin remains a big contender, but isn't in the same form as last year, when finishing runner-up in this, in addition to some excellent PGA Tour numbers. Even Langer, usually extremely classy amongst the seniors, arrives under something of a cloud following thumb surgery. Worryingly, he missed the cut at both the Open, and previously on one of his favourite German courses.

All of this points towards some very obvious candidates, not least [9.2] favourite Tom Lehman. Lehman is easily the best of this crowd on the Champions Tour, winning three times this season. Indeed, he remains competitive against the younger men, as illustrated by an excellent 22nd in the Open. The only concern is that, for the last two years, Lehman has arrived here on the back of a fortnight's golf at the higher level, and gone on to underperform in the Seniors. Nevertheless, he is surely too good to not win this event at some stage, especially as a former Open champion. I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds.

If Lehman does underperform again, another former Open champion is well-placed to take advantage. Nick Price is one of the best links exponents of the last few decades, winning at Turnberry in 1994, after previously being touched off by Open legends Watson and Ballesteros. Given that record, it is surprising that Price has never bothered to make the journey across for this seniors major, and the Zimbabwean could reap rewards for making the effort this time. He's certainly been amongst the best of these on the Champions Tour this season, winning the Toshiba Classic and twice finishing runner-up since, including last time out.

It is also impossible to ignore Tom Watson, whose heroics at Sandwich reinforced the hard to dispute assertion that he's the greatest links player of all time. On that evidence, plus the fact he won the Seniors PGA recently, Tom hasn't deteriorated since last winning this event in 2007. At the age of 61, there must be a concern that a second tough links event so soon after Royal St George's will be too much, but he didn't fare badly when eighth two years ago, days after losing a play-off at Turnberry.

Next up another man with a solid record in both this event and the Open. John Cook was runner-up to Faldo at Muirfield in 1992, and also to Bruce Vaughan in the Seniors three years ago. He's enjoying a fine season, winning three times and never far from contention, and should be fresher than his principal rivals who played Sandwich. Cook has a very reliable long game, and looks a rock-solid pick for both win and place markets.

Indeed, place markets often yield the best value in seniors events due to the lack of strength in depth. Take a look back through recent leaderboards in this event, and you'll struggle to find many who started the week in triple-figures. One very consistent character who rates a must-bet across all markets is last year's third, Peter Senior. The Aussie veteran is a model of consistency, registering five top-tens on his last eight Champions Tour starts, and remains highly competitive against the younger men. Only last December, Senior won the prestigious Australian PGA.

Finally another Aussie. Peter Fowler has been in stellar form on the European Seniors Tour, registering four top-threes in his last five starts, winning twice. As in his younger days, Fowler has a very reliable long game, and possesses more power than most of his peers. That could be an advantage around Walton Heath, and those recent numbers alone must make Fowler a worthy wager.

Recommended Bets

Outright

6pts Tom Lehman @ [9.2]
4pts Nick Price @ [13.0]
3pts Tom Watson @ [15.0]
3pts John Cook @ [18.0]
2pts Peter Senior @ [28.0]
1pt Peter Fowler @ [50.0]

Top-five finish

4pts Nick Price @ [4.0]
4pts John Cook @ [5.2]
2pts Peter Senior @ [7.0]
2pts Peter Fowler @ [9.0]

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