Premier League 
/ James Eastham / 02 August 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Manchester United celebrate their title victory last May and remain the team to beat with 2011-12 fast approaching
"Arsenal fell away badly towards the end of last season and there is nothing that suggests they are any better-equipped this time to end a title-free run now stretching back to 2004. Gervinho is a smart signing, but an isolated case at the moment, and the chances of captain Cesc Fabregas leaving before the transfer window closes seem larger than 50-50. At [10.5], they’re too big to lay, but there is no reason to back them."
As the Premier League season prepares to kick-off, James Eastham casts his eye over the leading contenders for the crown and tells you where to put your money.
The term 'Big Four' in describing the Premier League's top teams has become so ubiquitous you read it untranslated in foreign newspapers, but after being morphed by Manchester City's spending when they replaced Liverpool in English football's most exclusive club, it now no longer applies at all.
Going into the new season, six teams rank ahead of the rest: the original 'Big Four' of Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, plus City, and Tottenham, who forced entry by qualifying for the Champions League 15 months ago. But do all these sides stand a chance of winning the Premier League title?
The short answer is no. Spurs finished fifth last season, 18pts behind winners Manchester United, and a quick glance at their transfer activity suggests they'll be no stronger when the new season kicks-off on August 13. They may even be weaker, too - Luka Modric remains the subject of interest from other clubs - and although their absence from the Champions League means Harry Redknapp's side ought to be more focused no domestic matters during the autumn period, Tottenham look more like top-four than title challengers.
The same applies to Arsenal. They fell away badly towards the end of last season and there is nothing that suggests they are any better-equipped to end a title-free run stretching back to 2004. Gervinho is a smart signing, but an isolated case at the moment, and the chances of captain Cesc Fabregas leaving before the transfer window closes seem larger than 50-50. At [10.5], the Gunners are too big to lay, but there is no reason to back them. Where you ought to consider laying Arsenal is in the Top 4 Finish market. Arsene Wenger has guided his side to a top-four finish in every season since he arrived at the club 15 years ago, but that proud record has never been under greater threat.
Liverpool are the most difficult to side to judge. After a summer of heavy spending (Stewart Downing, Jordan Henderson and Charlie Adam cost £45m in total) the squad has better depth and balance, and in Luis Suarez not only a burgeoning Anfield folk hero but also a potential player of the year. If Liverpool were to sustain the points-per-game tally they managed during half a season under Dalglish over the course of an entire campaign they would be serious challengers. A tall order, but they will attract plenty of takers at [12.5].
Chelsea's biggest summer signing so far is manager Andre Villas Boas, who is hoping to breathe new life into a squad that initially looked tired last season under Carlo Ancelotti before mounting a remarkable comeback during the second-half of the campaign. Despite the new boss' superb record at FC Porto, he inherits a squad that lacks quality in certain areas, and will somehow have to find a way to revive Fernando Torres' flagging career (although the Spaniard is [10.0] second favourite in the Top Goalscorer category). At [3.8], I'd leave Chelsea alone.
Which brings us to Manchester City. Tenth in 2008-09 (50pts), fifth in 2009-10 (67pts) and third last season (71pts), their progress may have been slower than their owners would have liked, but it's also undeniable. The question is whether City have the squad and dressing-room unity to bridge the nine-point gap that separated them from neighbours United in last season's final standings. Following the arrival of Sergio Aguero - like Suarez, a player of the year contender - and given the fact the squad has remained fairly stable over the summer, I don't expect City to fall any further behind United, but I'd want larger odds than [4.9] on them actually winning the title before investing in them.
All of which suggests defending champions Manchester United remain the smartest bet in the market. The indefatigable ambition of the likes of Wayne Rooney and Rio Ferdinand will set an example to the others, Javier Hernandez ([10.5] third favourite in the Top Goalscorer market) has the potential to surpass last season's tally of 13 goals and the capacity for improvement in a squad containing outstanding young players such as Chris Smalling and Phil Jones is obvious. The biggest question mark is how well and how quickly David De Gea will settle as replacement for the now-retired Edwin van der Sar, but even accounting for this temporary issue, United's combination of power, strength, skill, experience, know-how and, not least, the drive to succeed that the manager has instilled in scores of players over 25 years set United ahead of the rest.
Best Bet: Manchester United to win the Premier League @ [2.9].
Other Recommended Bet: Lay Arsenal in Top 4 Finish @ [1.85].
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