Rugby World Cup 
/ Will Greenwood / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Kurtley Beale is a decent outside bet
"The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. In the knockout rounds, the tries dry up."
Will Greenwood was joint-top try scorer at the Rugby World Cup eight years ago. Here, he explains how to play one of the tournament's trickiest markets....
Top try scorer is a very complicated market to bet on at the Rugby World Cup. In 2003, I finished the tournament as joint top, having crossed the whitewash five times during England's victorious campaign, but I shared the honour with Josh Lewsey who scored the same amount of tries in the 113-11 Pool stage humbling of Uruguay.
That shows what a tricky market this can be and why it might pay to look down the market for a long odds candidate. The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. That's where you get the big ten teams playing at odds on, beating smaller nations by huge margins. In the knockout stages, the tries dry up.
At [8.0], New Zealand's Cory Jane is a worthy market leader. He's strong, robust, prolific and, if the hosts are to win this World Cup, as the market expects them to at 1.76, it makes sense to back their brilliant winger to bag lots of points.
But it's not as simple as that. In 1995, South Africa won the World Cup, beating a New Zealand team that included Jonah Lomu at his peak. Marc Ellis, who didn't even feature in the knockout stage for the All Blacks, finished as top try scorer because he ran in six in a Pool win over Japan.
There are three key first round games to consider when weighing up this bet: New Zealand v Japan (again), England v Romania and Australia v Russia. In those games, Jane, Kurtley Beale (26.0), Zac Guildford (13.5), Digby Ioane (10.0), James O'Connor (13.0) and Chris Ashton (13.5) could all take this market by storm.
The games take place on September 16, 24 and October 1 respectively. The big names at the top of the market could be rested so it makes sense to wait to see who is selected before betting big money in the top try scorer market.
Australia's backs could make hay when they meet Italy on the opening weekend for a match in which Ioane could score a hatful. I'm backing England to go far in this tournament but I don't expect them to destroy teams early on in the way that New Zealand and Australia undoubtedly will. For a pre-tournament value bet, Kurtley Beale is my tip at [26.0]. Those are good odds but be sure to return to the market once you know the teams for those key games.
Recommended Bet: 1pt Back Kurtley Beale @ [26.0].
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Follow Will's advice on Betting.Betfair throughout the Rugby World Cup - next week he previews England's opener against Argentina.
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