/ David Cleary / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Supreme 2011 winner Al Ferof
"The Supreme market is currently headed by Steps To Freedom and Cinders And Ashes."
With a large field, which includes horses with entries in other big races, the Supreme Novices' hurdle is a tough one to assess early on. David Cleary discusses some of the key runners...
Compared to the last two years, when the previous year's Champion Bumper winner was a short-priced favourite to gain a second Festival win, the Supreme has a very different ante post look to this time around. In the event, of course, both Dunguib and Cue Card were beaten, a pointer to just how competitive and how different it is to most of the trials for it. Finding a way through the large entry is further complicated by several strong candidates also holding an entry in the Neptune.
Notable among this group are Simonsig and Sous Les Cieux, and, unfortunately, it's hard to tell whether either has this race as first preference. Simonsig's second to Fingal Bay is the best piece of form shown so far by a Supreme entry, and although that came over two-and-a-half miles, Simonsig looked all over the winner before being outstayed by a horse currently favourite both for the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett.
Sous Les Cieux has won at two-and-a-half miles, but his victory in the Royal Bond over two miles at Fairyhouse, beating the smart Flat performer Galileo's Choice impressively, suggests he'd have no trouble with the trip in the Supreme. The Royal Bond is traditionally one of the strongest pointers to the order of merit among the Irish novices. Galileo's Choice may well have more to offer as a hurdler; he and Sous Les Cieux both have an entry in the Deloitte at Leopardstown next weekend, sure to be a key race in the build-up to the Supreme.
The Supreme market is currently headed by Steps To Freedom and Cinders And Ashes. Both were smart in bumpers and have made a good start over hurdles. Steps To Freedom was a narrow winner of a novice at the Open meeting, just outpointing Prospect Wells in a test of speed over the Supreme course and distance. The Flat-bred Steps To Freedom wouldn't be sure to improve for much more of a test of stamina. Cinders And Ashes, on the other hand, will benefit from a proper test kept at two miles. He has won his last three starts over hurdles, all on heavy ground, much the strongest form shown when he beat Keys at Aintree in the first of them.
Keys, along with Simonsig, is part of a strong Nicky Henderson entry. Darlan figures at the head of that group at the moment and a bold showing in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next weekend would see his Supreme odds shorten considerably. His mark for that race looks stiff, however, and he'll have his work cut out. Another Henderson entry Tetlami has impressed in both his wins. His Sandown form working out well, while his defeat of the good Flat horse Vulcanite at Kempton was a useful effort with more to come. The Dovecote at Kempton seems the likely next step for him.
Vulcanite needed the experience that day and, although he beat nothing when winning next time, he has potential. However, his stable companion Hazy Tom may be the better longer term prospect. Hazy Tom is best excused his run last time and will be worth his place in whichever event he contests at the Festival.
Paul Nicholls doesn't seem to have so strong a team as usual for this. It seems likely that one of his juveniles, possibly Pearl Swan, will be switched here from the Triumph. Prospect Wells is clearly a candidate and his poor run last time (in the Tolworth, as an afterthought) is easily forgiven. Ted Spread, another with smart Flat form, has impressed with his progress over hurdles too, though both could conceivably be switched to the County Hurdle.
Irish stables have a strong record in the Supreme, and aside from those already mentioned have serious contenders in Midnight Gale, Distant Memories and recent impressive Punchestown winner Trifolium.
With so many unexposed potential runners and multiple options, the Supreme is a hard race to call. Simonsig and Sous Les Cieux would go top of the list were they to become definite runners in this. Of those with this as their clear aim, Simonsig's stable companion Tetlami is probably overpriced, currently at 19.0 in the win market on Betfair.
Supreme Novices' Hurdle build up: key dates
Betfair Novices' Hurdle & Betfair Hurdle (Handicap), Newbury, February 11
Molson Coors Novices' Hurdle, Exeter, February 12
Deloitte Novice Hurdle, Leopardstown, February 12
Next declaration stage, February 21
Dovecote Novices' Hurdle, Kempton, February 25
paddypower.com Novice Hurdle, Naas, February 26
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