Premier League 
/ Gareth Purnell / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Roberto Martinez could have been Aston Villa manager in the summer
"Roberto Martinez is a man with a great managerial future ahead of him but his team looks in real trouble again and perhaps he should have moved to Villa in the summer."
Gareth Purnell is normally against Aston Villa, but on Saturday he is fully behind them and expects them to get at least a point against Wigan. Here, he tells us why...
Wigan v Aston Villa, Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00, Match Odds: Wigan [2.86], Aston Villa [2.72], The Draw [3.4]
Aston Villa have been one of my 'go to' teams to lay this season. They have been particularly poor at home and apart from a surprise 3-1 win at (a let's face it) pretty shambolic Chelsea, they have struggled to beat anyone above them in the league either home or away.
So it's perhaps a little surprising that I want to get the right side of them this weekend. Bear with me, because there is some method to my apparent madness.
For a start, the Midlanders' home record contrasts with their away form, which is actually pretty good. Villa have only actually lost three games away from Villa Park all season, at Spurs, Manchester City and Newcastle. Alex Mcleish's charges have admittedly drawn a lot of away games, but that's fine - a draw is a winner for us.
And closer inspection reveals that when Villa have taken on teams flirting with relegation, they have generally come away with something. In fact four of their six wins have come against Bolton, Blackburn, Wolves and Saturday's opponents Wigan Athletic... in other words the bottom four.
Villa have also showed some improved cutting edge since the turn of the year. Some of that has undoubtedly been down to Robbie Keane, who has now gone back to the States, adding a touch of quality to the forward play. But it also coincided with the return to fitness and form of key striker Darren Bent, and of Marc Albrighton, who has great delivery from out wide.
Bent and Albrighton should be partnered on Saturday by Gabi Agbonlahor. He's hardly a man to put your mortgage on, but what he has got is great pace, which perfectly suits Villa's counter attacking style away for home, and he has a good record against Wigan.
And what of the Latics? I've said before what an admirer of manager Roberto Martinez I am. I love the way he sets his teams up to play what I call proper football. Martinez is a man with a great managerial future ahead of him but his team looks in real trouble again and perhaps he should have moved to Villa in the summer - I think that would have been good for both parties.
The problem is that he doesn't really have the squad to play the type of football he likes, and they always look like conceding to me. In fact they have only kept one clean sheet in their last 22 matches at this level. And he has to be mighty worried about his team's home form. Wigan have not won any of their last ten matches at the DW Stadium and that is relegation form.
Villa have lost only one of their last seven Premier League games against Wigan and only one of their last six away this season. Clearly their style is more suited to soaking up pressure and breaking with speed, than having to force the pace themselves.
At the price and given all of the above, I make Wigan a solid lay at under 2-1 in the Match Odds market.
Recommended Bet: Lay Wigan at [2.9]
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