"Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six."
Back the draw @ 4.03/1
Paul Robinson looks ahead at Easter Sunday's lunchtime kick off between the struggling Aston Villa and the inconsistent Liverpool...
Aston Villa v Liverpool
Sunday March 31, 13.30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports One
Aston Villa have managed to haul themselves out of the relegation zone thanks to back to back wins against fellow strugglers Reading and QPR. They now sit in 17th, three points clear of Wigan, but they have played a game more and have an inferior goal difference.
Paul Lambert's side also beat West Ham back in February and while they have lost two of their last five, the defeats came at Arsenal and at home to Manchester City. Those losses were only by one goal margins and despite conceding two against QPR last time, the defence has tightened up a bit in recent weeks.
Christian Benteke is of course the main man for Villa, scoring in four of his last five at Villa Park. He didn't manage to find the net in either of Belgium's two games against Macedonia though and that concerns me slightly. His success on Sunday could depend on the inclusion of Jamie Carragher, or to be more precise, the exclusion of Martin Skrtel.
Liverpool's player of the season last year has been terrible under Brendan Rodgers and has finally been axed for the veteran Carragher. The Slovak defender seems more concerned with wrestling his man than clearing the ball and he has been at fault for a number of goals this season. Carragher may be very much past his best, but he still does the basics well and the whole defence seems more assured with him cajoling and organising them throughout the 90 minutes.
The Reds have been largely inconsistent of late - convincing wins or desperate defeats. It was the latter last time out at Southampton as Brendan Rodgers picked the wrong side from the off and was made to pay. The former Swansea manager started with Gerrard and Allen as the holding midfielders, even though it's been proven time after time that those two don't work together in that position as they don't protect the back four well enough. That is essential when deploying full backs who are encouraged to get forward and one of Lucas Leiva or Jordan Henderson need to be in the team.
Away from Anfield Liverpool have won just four Premier League games this season, losing five and drawing six. The victories did come at Norwich, West Ham, QPR and Wigan though, so it could be argued that they've become flat track bullies as Southampton are the only team in the bottom nine that they've lost to.
This match seems very hard to call but I wouldn't want to be backing Liverpool at 1.794/5 given their inconsistent nature. Of course they could go on to thrash Villa and I'd look silly, but they seem too short in the market. The home side can be backed at 5.04/1 and there could be some mileage in that as they will start the game full of confidence given recent wins and the fact they won 3-1 at Anfield back in December.
I'm more interested in the draw though at the prices. It can be backed at 4.03/1 and I like it because Paul Lambert would probably take a point from this fixture and Liverpool have drawn 40% of their away matches this season.
Over 2.5 goals is currently trading at around the 1.748/11 mark but I'd much rather back 'Yes' in the Both Teams To Score Market at the same price as Liverpool have conceded nine in their last five away from Anfield while scoring at least once themselves in each of the last nine.
As for a correct score, I think you can't go far wrong in backing both 1-1 and 2-2 at 9.08/1 and 17.016/1 respectively. Not only do they seem overpriced to me, they should both be good to trade if that's your kind of thing.
Recommended Bets
Back the draw @ 4.03/1
Back 'Yes' in BTTS Market @ 1.748/11
Back 1-1 @ 9.08/1
Back 2-2 @ 17.016/1
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