Ante-post 
/ Matt Gardner / 15 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Haydock plays host to the Grand National Trial.
"Le Beau Bai cannot be written off at Haydock, but preference is marginally for the horse that finished two places behind him in December..."
Timeform's Matt Gardner takes an ante-post look at Saturday's Grand National Trial, run over three and a half miles at Haydock Park...
Despite its billing, a quick look back at the last ten running's of the race show it to be anything but a trial for the Grand National. Of that sample, just six winners have gone on to compete in that year's Aintree event, with Forest Gunner coming closest to hitting the target when finishing fifth in 2005.
Aside from the aforementioned horse, the recent record of Haydock Trial winners that then ran in the big one reads 12th, PU, F, PU and UR, hardly an inspiring punting angle looking ahead to Aintree. However, statistics and race records merely show what has happened in the past, and the field that is likely to assemble at Haydock could include some live Grand National contenders.
Currently heading the market for Aintree in April is the David Pipe-trained Junior, trading at [13.5], who was last seen on a racecourse when finishing ninth in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting in June. His last run in the National Hunt sphere resulted in a resounding 24-length victory in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival, and he will contest Saturday's race off a 19 lb higher mark.
Junior is arguably deserving of his status in the market, but with regards to this weekend's event, he is far from a certain runner as his season will be revolving around that one day in April. If turning up, he would be a major player with the National weights already announced, but from an ante-post perspective he is difficult to recommend.
A race that is fairly crucial to look at prior to making your Haydock selection is the Welsh National, as the first three from Chepstow are all engaged to reoppose, and they are the trio at the top of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings.
Heading the ratings, but runner-up in December, is Giles Cross, who seemingly relishes stamina-sapping contests. His last four races have returned a runner-up position in two Welsh Nationals and a particularly brutal Eider Chase, with a win in the Southern National thrown into the mix.
However, it is difficult to imagine him reversing the Chepstow placing with Le Beau Bai, who is just 1 lb inferior to him on Timeform ratings. The nine-year-old has finished third in each of the last two renewals of the National Trial, and will go into this year's race in considerably better form than 12 months ago, racing from just a 3 lb higher BHA rating.
The [9.6] currently available makes plenty of appeal but arguably not as much as the [12.0] that Cappa Bleu is currently trading at.
The Evan Williams-trained ten-year-old returned from a 20-month absence at Haydock in November, beating Tamarinbleu by a head off a mark of 140. His latest start saw him finishing third to Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross at Chepstow, travelling well but never quite able to get on terms with the front pair, eventually shaping better than the result.
The overriding positive from that run, however, was that he showed himself to be still in one piece after his Haydock exertions. The suspicion was that he may have gone backwards after the run, recoiling after such a long layoff, but he can now be supported with a good degree of confidence.
Allowed to race off the same official rating (147) as at Chepstow, he is primed to run well and strikes as the most likely winner at this stage.
The rest of the field is fairly difficult to weigh up, with plenty set to be out of the handicap if Neptune Collonges takes up his engagement.
Sona Sasta, Rey Nacarado and Major Malarkey are of interest but, in truth, it is difficult to see any of them being up to mixing it with the Welsh National trio, whilst Deep Purple, last seen when winning the London National at Sandown on his first attempt beyond 25 furlongs, would have excellent claims if turning up but, as he has a multitude of entries in the coming weeks, he cannot be recommended.
Despite what was said at the beginning of this article, the most likely winner of Haydock's Saturday trial, Cappa Bleu, has a realistic chance of going on to National glory. He currently trades at [28.0] for the Aintree race, a price sure to contract should he seal the win at the weekend, and he appears to have excellent claims in both races, coming out towards the fore of the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings in each. Le Beau Bai cannot be written off at Haydock either, but preference is marginally for the horse that finished two places behind him at Chepstow in December.
Recommendation
Back Cappa Bleu @ [12.0] in the Grand National Trial at Haydock
The Betfair Hurdle takes centre stage on "Super Saturday" at Newbury and, although football fans may picture the likes of Manchester City taking on United on days billed as such, the Betfair Hurdle promises to be every bit as competitive as any local derby......
The feature event on an outstanding day of action at Leopardstown on Sunday is the Hennessy Gold Cup. Timeform's Pat Jupp assesses the field........
With current prices in mind, Timeform's Adam Brookes believes he's found the value bet in the second-day feature of this year's Cheltenham Festival, the Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase....
No comments:
Post a Comment