Premier League 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Experts forecast a close encounter in west London
"This is probably the game of the day. Just beating Newcastle-Villa."
Join Tobias Gourlay for live text coverage, breaking betting news and up-to-the-minute stats from Stamford Bridge, where Manchester United can look forward to a warm reception on a cold day
Sunday 16:00KO
Live on Sky Sports 1
Chelsea [1.62] United [7.2] draw [3.95]
18:05
We're just about cooked in these parts.
But there's a game kicking off in Gabon at 19:00 and James Eastham is calling out Ghana...
Adios.
18:00
History has been made here today as United became the first team to score four consecutive Premier League goals from the penalty spot without finding the back of the net from open play, but it's the comeback that will be remembered.
The market, however, is unmoved by their recovery from three goals down and City remain [1.65] favourites for the title. This blog's beginning to think the value might be with their unshakeable neighbours...
17:57
Betfair's experts have paid for this excess of entertainment - Dixon jagged a draw but little else, the Webb-Rooney partnership saved Lintorn's backside and there was nothing for Cox - but, my word, what a fine way to spend a winter's day.
17:55
FULL TIME Chelsea 3 United 3
17:52
United appeal for a penalty against Torres.
Sure, nine of the 54 PL penalties Webby has ever awarded have been to United, but, really - three in one game?
Not even Sir Alex can complain about the ref's performance this afternoon.
17:48
De Gea is Chelsea's only hope.
But he's now out to prove his shot-stopping ability. Splendid save.
17:46
The draw's a [1.50] favourite.
Opta agrees: fifteen teams have previously avoided defeat after going three goals down in the PL; only four have won.
17:44
Yep, Chelsea were definitely too short. Hernandez does his thing.
17:43
GOAL! Chelsea 3 United 3
(Hernandez)
17:41
Giggs uses all his experience concedes a free-kick.
Mindless.
17:38
Squeaky bum time. United are the top-scoring side in the last 15 minutes of PL games this season (13).
17:36
Big chance for Torres.
Not his season.
17:33
Chelsea are only out to [1.4]. That seems a bit short - United look fast and focused.
17:32
Ivanovic, by the way, is still on the field, despite his earlier booking.
Sturridge is not, however. He's been replaced by Romeu.
A couple of earlier United subs: Hernandez for Young; Scholes for Rafael.
17:30
Another good spot-kick from Rooney, improving his record to five goals from his last nine penalties.
17:29
GOAL! Chelsea 3 United 2
(Rooney pen.)
17:26
United's last three goals have been penalties and they have a chance to make it four.
Ivanovic is called out for a tackle on Welbeck.
17:23
Opta offers some hope to Lintorn:
United are one of only four PL teams to have won despite being three goals behind (versus Spurs in September 2001).
17:20
United have been awarded more penalties than anyone else this season, scoring 5/7.
Rooney's success gives Michael Lintorn, who backed him to score anytime, a [3.15] winner.
Michael now needs the United win to come home...
17:18
Debatable decision - Sturridge may or may not have fouled Evra - but, with the pressure off, Rooney's spot-kick is thunderous.
17:17
GOAL! Chelsea 3 United 1
(Rooney pen.)
17:16
With two assists today and eight for the season, Mata is behind only his countryman Silva in the assists league.
17:15
David Luiz, meanwhile, is establishing himself as the scourge of Manchester. Two of his three Chelsea goals have come against United. The other was against the noisy neighbours. (Who presumably just got a little bit louder.)
17:12
Mata has destroyed the dreams of those under-goals backers, but established his team as [1.03] favourites to beat the champions.
17:11
Mata delivers the ball onto Luiz's head (hair). The Brazilian delivers the ball into the back of the net, via Rio Ferdinand.
17:10
GOAL! Chelsea 3 United 0
(Luiz)
17:09
Another full-back goes into Webb's book.
Unfortunately, it's neither Bosingwa nor Rafael.
Step forward, Patrice Evra.
17:07
Chelsea in to [1.18].
17:06
Blockbusting volley from Mata.
Made in Spain too. Good cross from Torres.
17:05
GOAL! Chelsea 2 United 0
(Mata)
17:04
The teams emerge unchanged for the second-half.
17:01
There was strong ante-post support for Under 2.5 Goals. Chelsea's defence looked surprisingly comfortable in the aftermath of the goal and the market continues to believe that we will not see three goals today.
16:59
Chelsea might not deserve their half-time lead, but the numbers are insistent that they will hang onto it:
As we reported earlier, the full-time result has been the same as the half-time result in each of United's last 16 league games.
16:55
Opta are thinking along similar lines:
Chelsea have won 50 of the last 53 league games when they have been ahead at half-time.
Chelsea have never lost after being ahead against United at half-time in the Premier League (W9 D4).
United's three league defeats this season have been the three games where they have been behind at half-time (all 0-1 at half-time).
16:50
United must summon the spirit of Upton Park 10/11, Bloomfield Road 10/11 and the DW Stadium '08/09.
Those are the only three examples of United going away from home in the last five seasons and turning half-time defeat into full-time victory. Their full record in such games is W3-D4-L10.
In games they've been losing by a single goal, their record is W1-D4-L9.
16:47
HALF TIME Chelsea 1 United 0
16:45
Branislav Ivanovic is Webby's 101st victim of the league season. His mistake: body-checking Ashley Young.
16:41
Evans has, at least, just made a little bit of Opta history:
United have scored two own goals in a league season for the first time since 2004/05.
16:39
Chelsea are in to [1.64]. Their goal was against the run of play, however, and that price might seem short to some...
16:37
Aw, Jonny.
Just as Opta started to convince us he might not be a liability, he deflects a shot by Sturridge into his own net.
Evra and, I'm afraid, De Gea must also take some blame.
16:36
GOAL! Chelsea 1 United 0
(Evans o.g.)
16:33
More evidence of Opta's anti-Spain bias. They're now saying that Torres, who has just been booked, has collected more yellow cards (four) than goals (three) in the Premier League this season.
That card, by the way, was the 100th yellow that Webb has shown this season. First one to reach that landmark. Well done him.
16:31
Opta's reporting that United have scored 2.85 goals per game with Ashley Young in the team and only 1.9 when he's absent.
But didn't they once score eight in a single match this season? Perhaps that's distorting those figures a little...
16:27
The game's running at about a foul a minute right now, but Webb's still not quick on the draw.
16:25
Since Evans made his debut, United have won 73% and conceded 0.77 goals when he's played.
When he's not played, they've won less often (68%) and conceded more (0.82 goals).
This blog is going to have to re-think its views on the young man.
16:22
Now, this is a surprise.
When Jonny Evans has played this season, United have won 9/11 (82%).
When he hasn't been in the team, they have taken three points from just 3/7 (43%).
16:18
The link at the top of the page, by the way, just below 'Live on Sky Sports 1', will take you straight to the live Match Odds market.
16:17
That domination we just mentioned - Man U are now slight favourites to win ([2.78]) and slight favourites to score the Next Goal.
Cox and Dixon lick their lips.
16:15
Opta report that United have scored more goals (17) in the first half-hour of games this season than anyone else in the league. Sounds plausible, given their domination of this match.
Chelsea are second (13), apparently. Sounds less plausible.
16:12
Howard Webb, the man who has shown more yellow cards than anyone else in the Premier League this season, is not looking trigger-happy today.
A dive by Ashley Young, a foul on Danny Welbeck, but Webb's right-hand is nowhere near his top pocket.
16:09
The bullying tactics work. De Gea punches feebly.
His compatriot Torres goes easy on him, deciding not to capitalise.
16:07
And now Chelsea are joining in.
Four men crowd the gangly Spaniard for the game's first corner.
They too saw Agger's goal for Liverpool in the cup last weekend, it seems.
16:04
However, Chelsea out-shot United by 22 to 14 in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford.
Opta are really picking on de Gea now.
16:02
Rooney (with Dixon onboard) beats Welbeck (Cox is his jockey) to the first shot of the game. A free-kick that does not trouble Cech.
Chelsea have not seen much of the ball yet. But our man Bosingwa has already fouled Valencia...
16:00
And so we begin...
15:50
What's the inference?
It's not that de Gea is a bad shot-stopper; it's that his team is conceding way more shots when he's at the back.
Ergo he should be a bit more shouty. Like Schmeichel.
15:45
Some David de Gea news from Opta...
1. The Spaniard's saves-to-shots percentage in the PL this season is 77% - fourth best in the division. (In contrast, Petr Cech is twentieth at 65%).
2. However, United have conceded 1.21 goals per game with him between the sticks this season and only 0.44 without him.
15:33
That stat fits nicely with Soccer Widow's idea (15:12) for dutching a few different double-results in the Half Time/Full Time market. If you don't have a firm view on who's going to win today, take all of Chelsea/Chelsea, draw/draw and Man U/Man U at level stakes and, if any one of them comes home, you'll be paid out at handsome odds-against prices.
15:26
Crunching numbers like a Caterpillar boot on virgin snow, this blog's found something out for itself now:
The full-time result has been the same as the half-time result in each of United's last 16 league games.
We'll try to remember this at half-time today.
15:18
Looking at the Chelsea team, there might be another full-back in grave danger of a booking.
Jose Bosingwa, not Ryan Bertrand, is Ashley Cole's replacement at left-back. Bosingwa - a ropey defender on the right, let alone the left - thus faces in-form Antonio Valencia as his direct opponent. Doesn't [4.0] look a bit long in that Shown a Card? market.
15:15
Rafael plays for United, so Michael Cox will be scrambling for the Shown a Card? market.
15:14
Chelsea: Cech, Ivanovic, Cahill, Luiz, Bosingwa; Essien, Meireles, Malouda; Sturridge, Torres, Mata
15:13
The teams are in. Guests first.
Manchester United: De Gea; Rafael, Evans, Ferdinand, Evra; Valencia Giggs, Carrick, Young; Rooney; Welbeck
15:12
Soccer Widow also takes a purely quantitative approach. The first - only? - lady of football betting has identified three sources of value in the markets for today's game.
15:07
Less than an hour to go.
If it's just the cold, hard Opta facts you want, they're right here.
15:02
Michael Lintorn's Opta-powered investigations have thrown up these recommendations.
He too likes under goals...
14:57
The spectral figure of the Inside Man lends his support to Dixon's suggestion of Under 2.5 Goals.
14:51
Perhaps it's because Fernando Torres is colder than the weather right now, but
both Cox and Dixon fancy a United striker to open the scoring.
Standing on the shoulders of these giants, do we see a little bit of value about United at [2.12] in the Next Goal market?
United have struggled for goals at Stamford Bridge in the last few years, but that was before Villas-Boas. The most recent numbers suggest the visitors will find the back of the net at some point: Chelsea have conceded in 9/11 EPL home games under Villas-Boas, while United have scored in 10/11 on the road this season.
And United are as good as anyone at scoring first on the road. Only Manchester City can match their record of opening the scoring in 12 of their last 20 away matches.
14:45
We've got table service from Opta this afternoon.
It's 1-1 at half-time in the early kick-off at St James' Park and, by way of an aperitif, they have rustled this up for us:
Aston Villa have lost none of their last six Premier League (PL) games that they've been drawing at half-time.
And the last time they were 1-1 after 45 minutes, they went on to win 3-1 at Chelsea.
14:40
Michael Cox, the man who spawned Zonal Marking and consigned the Tactics Truck to - hopefully - one of history's more disgusting dustbins, has a couple of suggestions of his own.
14:35
Like Johnny, Lee Dixon's had his thinking cap on this week. The North London Maicon has come up with some pretty spectacular stuff in bygone Chelsea games, but he's surpassed himself today. In a range of odds from [1.7] to [7.4] he's produced 5 (five) tips for the big match.
14:30
Greetings and salutations.
Chelsea are 'concentrating on the Champions League' this season, as the euphemism goes. But celebrity Londoner Johnny Vaughan has just been on the radio, and he's been a Blues fan for more than 30 years. Johnny's absolutely certain this is the biggest game of their season.
Manchester United are undoubtedly more concerned by the noisy neighbours at the moment, but this is probably still the game of the day. Just beating Newcastle-Villa.
Magnificent Wayne Rooney scores a brace and inspires champions to come from 3-0 down to draw with Chelsea. Overs backers are smiling too......
Manchester City's position as Premier League favourites strengthened marginally after Roberto Mancini's men comfortably beat Fulham on a cold night in Eastlands....
Super Dutchman hammers in a hat-trick as Arsenal destroy Blackburn. Meanwhile, Wolves pick up priceless points against big-spending QPR and Swansea win at the Hawthorns......
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