February 25, 2012

The Two And A Half Goals Column: Loftus Road goal glut

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Clint Dempsey has been Fulham's go-to man when it comes to goals

Clint Dempsey has been Fulham's go-to man when it comes to goals

"Martin Jol’s team are unrecognisable from the clean-sheet wonders of early season, and instead now choose to slug-it-out with teams ‘ala’ Rocky versus Apollo Creed. "

The Inside Man continues to use his inside knowledge to find the best bets from this weekend's over/under 2.5 goals markets.

Saturday

QPR v Fulham

This London derby stands-out as the place to find Premier League goals on Saturday, with both sides likely to get on the score-sheet.

Since taking over at QPR on January 10, Mark Hughes has brought in forwards Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora. Hughes clearly recognised QPR's lack of firepower and looked to remedy the problem quickly. As a result, four home games, out of the five since his arrival, have produced more than two and a half goals. The only cagey affair was, quite understandably, his first game in charge.

That doesn't bode well for a Fulham side who haven't kept a clean sheet in their last nine. Martin Jol's team are unrecognisable from the clean-sheet wonders of early season, and instead now choose to slug-it-out with teams 'ala' Rocky versus Apollo Creed. Five of Fulham's last six games have gone over on goals, with Clint Dempsey's efforts fuelling a team who've netted in eight of their last nine games.

Goals look set to be the main course here, in what should be a healthy serving of attacking football.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.12]

Charlton v Stevenage

Charlton sit top of the League One table, and continue to rumble towards the title despite a conspicuous lack of goals. It's seven games since Charlton scored more than once. Luckily for manager Chris Powell though, his defense has been on top form.

This is evident from Charlton's last seven matches at home. Only one of those games went over two and a half goals, yet amazingly the Addicks were unbeaten in that time, taking 15 points from a possible 21.

As for Stevenage, well they look unlikely to spoil this low-scoring run. Of their last 12 matches, four were goalless, with a further four ending 1-0. Meanwhile, their road form has been especially prudent, with six of their last eight away games going under the goals mark.

It's important to note, that from their last 17 matches, the only ones to go over two and a half goals were those won by Stevenage. So with a Stevenage win at the Valley available at large odds-against, the chance of goals should be considered equally unlikely.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.81]

Sunday

Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Rangers

Short on money, form, points and luck, it looks like being a surprisingly rough end to the season for Rangers.

Surprises, they say though, only come to those who aren't looking. And just as Rangers' financial strife could have been seen coming a long time ago, if you look carefully, you'll also see that a lack of goals shouldn't be a surprise for their trip to Inverness.

The signs are there. More than half of Rangers' away games have gone under two and a half goals, including their match at the Caledonian Stadium earlier this season, which Rangers won 2-0.

Indeed there's no reason to think Ally McCoist's team, nor any other side, should have it easy against Inverness at present. Caley's last six games have produced a total of just seven goals. Even a rampant Celtic side could only manage a 1-0 victory, despite having home advantage.

And with top-scorer Nikica Jelavic having been recently sold, the Rangers attack looks less potent now than it has at any time this season, making a low-scoring encounter the confident call here.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.87]

Villarreal v Athletic Bilbao

Here are two teams that have every reason to go for the win, and hence goals, on Sunday.

Villarreal lie just three points above the relegation zone, and will understand that getting as many wins as possible from their remaining home games will be crucial to their survival hopes. As for Athletic Bilbao, they lie fourth in the table, seven points behind the pot of gold that would be an automatic Champions League position. For them to close that gap, only wins will do.

Not that either side needs much motivation to go on the attack. The goals have been flowing freely for both sides, at either end of the pitch, as of late. Seven of Villarreal's last eight games have gone over two and a half goals, with only an understandable parking of the bus, to achieve a 0-0 draw against Barcelona, having blotted their copybook. Bilbao meanwhile have been unrelenting, with their last six matches all going over the goals mark, at an average of four goals per game.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.04]

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