March 6, 2012

Cheltenham 2012: Jamie Lynch's guide to Day One

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There will be a packed crowd at Cheltenham

There will be a packed crowd at Cheltenham

" The Tuesday Treble, comprising three horses who look about as close as you can get to a certainty at Cheltenham, namely Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega..."

In the first of a four-parter, Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch gives you his guide to the opening day of Cheltenham 2012....

Hands up if anyone has ever said to you that something is a marathon, not a sprint; and keep your hands up if you've wanted to spend any length of time with the person who said that to you.

Thought not.

There are two kinds of people in the world. Actually, there are thousands of 'two kinds' - such as the haves and have nots, the givers and the takers, the weak and the strong, the people who find Matt Dawson annoying and Matt Dawson, schizophrenics, and those who think there are two kinds of people in the world and those who don't - but the two kinds we're dealing with here are the positive thinkers and the negative thinkers; those who treat life like a sprint and make things happen and those who amble through life like a marathon runner and wait for things to happen.

I worry that if we choose to live our life like it's a marathon, we might never really be doing much more than training for the big day. Same goes with the approach to Cheltenham, and, make no mistake, the first day is a big day; in fact, it's probably the biggest day of all, because in its tone-setting way the Tuesday can determine your whole week, maybe your whole month and, in extreme cases, your whole year. Take your marks, get set...

RACE OF THE DAY
If the first day is indeed instrumental, that makes the first race of the first day monumental, certainly for those amongst us who are more Bolt than Gebrselassie, but timing isn't the only reason why, for me, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is the race of the day. There's loads to go at with the Supreme, which is high on both quality and quantity: it's [7.0] the field, the field comprising a batch of above-average novices, above-average novices that could go all the way to the top in the coming years. As you might have read, I'm already heavily involved here with Cinders And Ashes, and while he's half the price he was six weeks ago, in all honesty I'm not any more confident now than I was then, even with the scary Simonsig rerouted elsewhere. Nonetheless, I still have a lot of faith in Cinders And Ashes, as apparently does Donald McCain, which will do for me.

KEY HORSE OF THE DAY
Almost £1m has already been matched on Betfair in the Champion Hurdle market, and well over half of it on Hurricane Fly. Those figures will go through the roof before 15:20 on Tuesday, not to mention the four or so minutes of the race's duration. A gelding he may be, but he'll be carrying the you-know-whats of many a man, for whom Hurricane Fly is the make-or-break horse of the day, win or lose.

STORY OF THE DAY
You have to go back to the 1960s to find a horse who won the same race at the Festival four times, which says something of the remarkable Quevega as she stands on the threshold of that very achievement, but arguably a bigger story is that of Hunt Ball, whose season and owner is the stuff of Hollywood; The World Is Knott Enough, Some Like It Knott or Knott-ing (Up The) Hill.

NOTABLE ABSENTEES OF THE DAY
Plenty to choose from here, including the aforementioned Simonsig from the Supreme (which I'm privately glad about having backed Cinders And Ashes) and Peddlers Cross from the Arkle (which I'm privately gutted about having backed it), but the biggest miss is possibly Grandouet, as I'm convinced he was the one who would have given Hurricane Fly a race in the Champion.

MEANINGLESS STAT THAT WILL BE TROTTED OUT BUT HAS ABSOLUTELY NO RELEVANCE WHATSOEVER OF THE DAY
Favourites have a poor record in the Arkle.

WORTHWHILE STAT OF THE DAY
All seven winners of the Cross-Country Chase had experience of the course.

DECISIONS, DECISIONS
The Tempting - very tempting -Tuesday Treble, comprising three horses who look about as close as you can get to a certainty at Cheltenham, namely Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega, will pay around about 6/1. What do you reckon?
At those odds, count me in.

BET TO HAVE NOW
Quantitativeeasing, or scribble starting with a Q as it will be written on many betting slips, is [8.4] for the Festival Handicap Chase now but the sort of horse that could easily go off at [4.5] or shorter on the day. The form of his course win in December, when he powered home to catch Medermit, is really strong, the step up to three miles should get more out of him, and, perhaps most significant of all from a price-collapsing perspective, he's owned by J.P. McManus, who's definitely one of those people who makes things happen, especially at the Festival.

BET TO HAVE ON THE DAY
We're back to the Tempting Tuesday Treble again. Of course, you could just lump on one of them individually, in which case Hurricane Fly lookes the safest bet, considering Sprinter Sacre isn't yet the finished article and Quevega hasn't been seen for ten months (though I know that's the norm for her), but it's hard to see any of them being beaten, and it may be that the multiple ends up bigger than 6/1 because the markets are so strong at Cheltenham and these are the types of horses the bookies will try to 'get'.

If those three win on the first day, life's sprinters will be delighted. If they bomb out, the tedious marathon runners will be ready with 'I told you so'.
...........
Timeform TV Focus made 138 points profit (at Betfair SP) in year one. Get the expert view on the big races at Cheltenham with TV Focus. Find Out More!

Rory Delargy is on track for the final day of the Cheltenham Festival, and gives his best bets for a day which features a mouthwatering clash of the last three individual Gold Cup winners....

Now then, now then; this is a test, this is a real, real test. Graham Taylor's words are ringing through my ears as we approach today's Cheltenham card, which looks nigh-on impossible from a placepot perspective. There are only 20 places up for grabs, and 133 horses going for them. You do the maths. As far as we're concerned, though, it all comes down to one horse, Bobs Worth, as he's the selected banker, and we desperately need one otherwise...

Graham Cunningham is putting sentiment to one side for his Gold Cup angles and casts his eye over the rest of Friday's card as he completes day four of his Festival rundowns....


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