Timeform Debate 
/ Simon Rowlands / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Will the Irish train more than 9 Festival winners this time round?
"...accommodate those who think it will be a bonanza Festival for Irish-trained horses again."
With Betfair having opened up a large range of Cheltenham Festival Special markets, Timeform's Head of Research and Development pinpoints just where the value lies...
Of all the excuses for not having a bet at the Cheltenham Festival, "there was not enough opportunity" would be about the least plausible if ever used. There are 27 races, featuring around 500 runners, and there exists just about every imaginable way of siding with or against each horse and each human participant.
In addition to win, place, forecast, back and lay, ante-post and in-running - to mention some of the main ones - there are several one-off markets on Betfair, to be found on the "Cheltenham Festival Specials" tab of GB horseracing.
As in any other form of betting, "form" study - or, more precisely in this instance, a consideration of history - is important. While some of the markets are (or at least should be) straightforward derivatives of prices to be found elsewhere, others require a bit more figuring out.
The following historical tables may help.
I will leave the predicting of the official description of the going for the opening race to others. Some say Clerk of The Course Simon Claisse calls it what he would like it be, rather than what it actually is: I couldn't possibly comment.
It should be possible to have a stab at the top jockey and top trainer betting by consideration of the top jockeys' and the top trainers' intended runners: Ruby Walsh is favourite at [1.69] to back for the former, while Willie Mullins is shortest at [2.52] to back for the latter.
One market that does interest me is that for Irish-trained winners. The Irish raiding party has won 32% of races over the last 10 years, which translates to an expectation of 8.5 winners from 27 races, though they did surpass that handsomely in 2011 with a record 13.
Yet, "more than 9 winners" (something which has been achieved only twice in history) is the clear market leader at [2.38]. The Irish have a strong team again, but that sort of price smacks of availability bias: it happened last year so it should happen again.
This looks a good opportunity to become a layer, if you are not one already, and to accommodate those who think it will be a bonanza Festival for Irish-trained horses again.
The longest SP winner market may tempt in those who look for "good things" at short prices. 212 of 236 Festival races in the last 10 years have gone to horses shorter than 33/1, 23 to horses at between 33/1 and 50/1 inclusive, and just 1 to a horse (dear old Mister McGoldrick in 2008) starting at bigger than 50/1.
If you treat these frequencies as indicative of probabilities, you get (remembering that even one 33/1+ winner trumps the "unders" and just one winner at >50/1 hands it to the "overs") a fair price of around [1.2] for the middle category, which has delivered in 9 years out of 10.
Don't let me stop you if that sort of price is your thing. But, as explained last year, percentage chances based on Betfair SPs as a true indication of horses' probabilities suggest the fair odds should be bigger than that. There is also the possibility of a remarkably large number of short-priced winners at this year's Festival. I'll pass.
A market that interests me more is the "Biggest Winning Distance" one. Historical margins at the Festival need to take into account the fact that there were fewer races in the past than now and that the same margins now would have been returned as shorter prior to 2009 due to tinkering in how margins are returned by the BHB/BHA.
The first table adjusts for these two factors in the "adjusted margin" column and adjusts for the latter factor in the "maximum adjusted margin" column.
The frequencies for margins come in at 232 of 236 races at less than 16 lengths, 3 at 16 to 22 lengths inclusive and just one (24-length winner Junior last year) at further. That implies fair odds of approximately [1.60], [3.8] and [9.0] respectively, and in this instance I think the case stacks up for backing "unders", which have delivered in 7 out of 10 years.
Doubters will point out that the preponderance of short-priced favourites increases the chance of at least one of them "lagging up". Well, it does, but not by as much as most people probably imagine.
Taken throughout jump racing, a 6/4 winner can be expected to win by only one and a half times as far as a 16/1 winner. It is only at very short prices of 4/9 or shorter that winning margins really start to take off.
This Cheltenham Festival may look easier to crack than most. But the vast majority of the races will still be ultra-competitive, and it's a good bet that none of them will be won by a monster margin.
Recommendations:
lay "more than 9 Irish winners" to lose 2 pts at 2.6 or shorter
4 pts back "biggest win distance less than 16 lengths" at 1.8 or bigger
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Timeform TV Focus made 138 points profit (at Betfair SP) in year one. Get the expert view on the big races at Cheltenham with TV Focus. Find Out More! 
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