Ante-Post Betting 
/ Timeform / 07 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Willie Mullins has a strong hand in the Cheltenham Handicaps this year
"Irish-trained runners dominate the market for the cross-country event and Scotsirish appeals as one of the best-handicapped horses of the week..."
Establishing how well handicapped Irish challengers are at Cheltenham is still a tricky business, but Timeform's Irish team are here to shed some light on the chances of the leading handicap hopes...
Tuesday
Irish-trained runners dominate the market for the Cross-Country Chase and Scotsirish appeals as one of the best-handicapped horses of the week. A very smart performer in regulation events, few have taken to this unique test as seamlessly has Scotsirish, and he looked the most likely winner of the Glenfarclas at Cheltenham in November when carried out turning for home.
Scotsirish had the eventual winner of that race, Garde Champetre, behind when winning last time and, whilst Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia have both shown plenty of aptitude for these events, they were both vastly inferior to Scotsirish in regulation chases, so it's hard to get away from the Mullins runner.
The Centenary Chase on the same day looks as competitive as ever, and Shot From The Hip and Nearest The Pin look our main hopes, with the former also holding an entry in Friday's Grand Annual.
Shot From The Hip progressed into a smart novice hurdler last season, rounding off his campaign with a nine length win over Hidden Universe in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. He's yet to hit quite the same heights over fences, but he was far from disgraced when second to the progressive Rathlin in a Grade 2 at Naas last time and the handicapper looks to have taken a bit of a chance with him by allotting a mark of just 138.
The Tony Martin-trained Nearest The Pin really came good over hurdles last spring, hacking up in a novice at Fairyhouse before shaping like one still ahead of his mark despite a 13 lb rise when second to Johnny Mcgeeney at Punchestown. Nearest The Pin got close to the pick of his hurdles form when second to Hidden Cyclone in a maiden chase at Leopardstown in December and, given that he was amiss last time, could be worth another chance to improve with conditions looking set to be in his favour.
Wednesday
Gordon Elliott has both last year's winner Carlito Brigante (also in the World Hurdle) and Toner d'Oudairies in the Coral Cup.
The latter makes plenty of appeal from what looks a workable mark, as while he didn't really go on as expected as a novice last term, he shaped as if in good heart over a trip that seemed to stretch him when sixth to Jetson at Leopardstown last time and appeals as the type who will benefit from a sounder surface and the drop back in trip.
Noel Meade's Silverhand was going well when hampered in the 2010 Coral Cup and looked as good as ever when last seen in the summer. He's not had many chances to show his worth in well-run two and a half mile handicaps on good gound and could also go well at a big price.
Ut de Sivola looks the most interesting of the Irish entries for the Fred Winter, though none of our juveniles come out with much of a chance based on Timeform ratings. It's best to put a line through Ut de Sivola's last run (struck into) and he had quickly established himself as a useful hurdler prior to that, beating Hisaabaat at Punchestown in January. His sound jumping should stand him in good stead in what is traditionally a pretty rough race for four-year-olds.
Thursday
Catch Me is a fascinating runner in what is a typically trappy renewal of the Pertemps Final on Thursday. A very smart hurdler in his prime, he never totally convinced over fences and, having tumbled in the weights, shaped as if retaining at least a decidedly useful level of form when fifth to Cootamundra at Punchestown last time, staying on well having been set plenty to do. He's potentially very well treated from a mark of just 140.
Seabass is the standout Irish hope in the Byrne Group Plate, though he doesn't look to have been let off lightly with a mark of 151. He's improved in leaps and bounds since returning to Rules this season, registering his fourth straight win when beating Zaarito in a two mile Grade event at Naas last time, but is forced to race from a 20 lb higher mark than when last seen in handicaps.
Up The Beat is an interesting runner in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup and Willie Mullins' progressive novice chaser comes into the race on the back of a very promising second to subsequent Eider winner Portrait King at Punchestown. Up The Beat ran to a decidedly useful level on that occasion and he remains open to further progression given that was only his third start over the larger obstacles.
Friday
Things don't get any easier on Friday, with the County Hurdle as fiercely competitive as ever. There are a couple of strong candidates from the Emerald Isle, however, and Citizenship would command plenty of respect if he turns up based on his win at Leopardstown last time. Shuffled to rear after badly hampered at the first and still having only two behind on the approach to two out, Citizenship finished with a flourish to lead close home.
It's the Gordon Elliott-trained Dirar that is of most interest, however, the former Ebor winner having shaped better than the result suggests when eighth to Final Approach in last year's renewal after being given too much to do under a patient ride and not getting a clear run from the top of the hill. He hasn't been seen since a spell hurdling in America last October but has been given a workable mark for his return.
We've touched upon the chances of Toner d'Oudairies and Citizenship elsewhere, so that just leaves us with Sergent Guibs to look at in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle. Lightly raced, having had just the two runs for Willie Mullins, Sergent Guibs caught the eye when a not-knocked-about third to Cootamundra in a handicap at Punchestown last time. There is room for improvement in his jumping, but he remains unexposed for a top yard and could have more to offer in handicaps.
Recommendations
Back Scotsirish in the Cross-Country Chase
Back Toner d'Oudaries in the Coral Cup
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