March 14, 2012

US Masters 2012: Bet on this trio now for the early value

US Masters RSS / / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brandt Snedeker has made a splash at Augusta before

Brandt Snedeker has made a splash at Augusta before

"Nick Watney has been friendless in the Augusta market so far, drifting from [40.0] to a recent high of [60.0]. However, weekend rounds of 69 and 67 offer hope that he's finding his range again, and the next fortnight offers a couple of good opportunities."

With Rory McIlroy gobbling up attention at the head of the market punters are forgetting about other Augusta contenders with some spectacular prices available on good players with a genuine chance of Masters glory, says Paul Krishnamurty

If there's a single defining feature of current golf outright markets, it's confusion. Punters are still trying to adjust to golf's new order, where Tiger Woods is no longer top dog and among his biggest rivals over the past decade, only Phil Mickelson remains a leading contender.

Apart from the general consensus that Rory McIlroy is now the man to beat, odds about everyone else seem to fluctuate wildly. One good week, and a player's odds for upcoming events collapses. Likewise a bad fortnight and players drift markedly, sometimes to three or four times the level they began that bad 'spell'.

Take the example of last week's winner Justin Rose. At the beginning of March, Justin was available around [120.0] for the Masters. Since Sunday he's been matched down to [32.0]. Shrewdies aware of his wider Augusta credentials will be sitting pretty right now, either banking their profit already or leaving a substantial 'free bet' for next month's major.

It is a stone-cold certainty that something similar will happen to impressive performers in the three weeks between now and the Masters. All three PGA Tour events will attract elite fields, likely to yield champions that then become popular picks. With an eye on past form in these events and at Augusta, I reckon there's plenty of mileage backing the following trio now for the Masters.

Back Nick Watney @ [55.0]
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103455189&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
Partly in response to a slow start to 2012, and also perhaps a failure to land a spectacular gamble in last year's Masters, Watney has been friendless so far, drifting from [40.0] to a recent high of [60.0]. However, weekend rounds of 69 and 67 offer hope that he's finding his range again, and the next fortnight offers a couple of good opportunities. He's finished top-13 in each of the last three Transitions Championship
renewals, and has finished fourth before at next week's venue, Bay Hill.
Contending seriously for either event will probably spark another gamble, as Watney has often been touted as the identikit Augusta winner since making the top-20 on his first three cracks at the Masters. Twelve months ago, he started amongst the favourites for the season's opening major at around [17.5], so a bet now at three times that level has obvious trading mileage.

Back Brandt Snedeker @ [90.0]
Similarly, Snedeker's early Augusta efforts make him very much a player to keep on side at this time of year. Remember, Augusta is the sort of track that generally penalises experience, which makes Snedeker's third place on his first visit as a pro in 2008 read even better. One of the game's finest short-game exponents, he also finished 15th last year, and with a win to his name already in 2012, is bound to have his supporters at these big odds. Indeed, given that he's twice finished top-eight before in the Transitions, Brandt could well be the next subject of a Rose-style gamble.

Back Martin Laird @ [130.0]
While Laird remains very much an outsider for the Masters at [130.0], his recent efforts have really caught the eye and the next fortnight could well be very lucrative. The Scot will be defending champion at Bay Hill, and having finished fifth last year at Copperhead, is shortlisted this week too. Though he finished down the field at Doral last week, Laird ranked second for greens in regulation, retaining the excellent ball-striking seen previously during his run to the quarter-finals of the World Matchplay.
Laird's Augusta debut made few waves, but 20th place was an excellent first attempt in such a demanding Major. As a relatively long-hitter with a high ball-flight, Laird has the game for Augusta.
In any case, at these big odds, there's little meaningful risk about an in-form, improving player.

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....

With the first big event of 2012 completed and just five weeks until the Masters, what did we learn from the World Matchplay? Paul Krishnamurty weighs up the performances and progress of the big-names....


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