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/ Jack Houghton / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Des Lynam: the Google Scholar of his day
"Years of watching Des Lynam front the BBC coverage had turned me into a rowing expert and, if Des had taught me anything in that time, it was that, when it came to Boat Race glory, the heavier crew always had the advantage."
Even after a morning spent with Google Scholar and his trusted spreadsheet, Jack Houghton is still more inclined to rely on the wisdom of Des Lynam when selecting his Boat Race bets.
When I was woken this morning - by my two-year-old son shouting "Up!", whilst thrusting a book about a penguin in my face - I had no clue how fascinating the world of rowing physiology was.
Stay with me.
It all started when I was perusing my Boat Race spreadsheet. That's right ladies, a Boat Race spreadsheet... please form an orderly queue. But more of that in a minute.
Years of watching Des Lynam front the BBC coverage had turned me - as well millions of others - into a once-a-year rowing expert and, if Des had taught me anything in that time, it was that, when it came to Boat Race glory, the heavier crew always had the advantage.
Why was it, then, that this year's Cambridge eight, at an average of around one-and-a-quarter stones heavier a man than their Oxford counterparts, were the outsiders in the Betfair market at [3.35]? Is it that weight is no longer considered the key determiner of Boat Race success? After all, the lighter and less-experienced Oxford crew had crushed the Cambridge boat last year. Or were there other factors influencing those odds?
My Boat Race spreadsheet told me a lot. Despite the weigh-in being viewed as a key psychological event - with crews reportedly drink excess amounts of water beforehand to bulk up by a few pounds - since 1980, the heavier boat has only gone on to win around 60 per cent of the time. That's hardly any more significant than a coin toss.
So should we ignore crew weight?
After a morning spent on Google Scholar, I think the answer is "yes". As far as I can make out, it all comes down to two key variables: propulsion and drag. Heavier rowers are generally more powerful, meaning they can generate more propulsion, but they also submerge the boat more, creating increased drag. In tests, the increased power was more than enough to compensate for the increased drag. In analysis conducted by Niels Secher in Physiology of Sports, heavier rowers typically had an advantage of 2.6 per cent over lighter rowers. Here's the crunch point though: for Secher, "heavier" meant, on average, 23kgs heavier. And he found that, as race distance increases, weight advantage decreases.
For Boat Race participants then, racing over nearly 7,000m, and rarely having more than a few kilograms a man between each boat, it is of little surprise that crew weight seems to have such a limited affect on the results.
Unfortunately, the spreadsheet then confuses things again. Looking at the last 18 occasions when one crew has significantly outweighed its opponent - "significant" defined as an average difference of more than 4kg a man - shows that the super-heavyweight crews win 88 per cent of the time. It also shows, though, that those super-heavyweights rarely go on to win by large margins. Perhaps this demonstrates that bigger, more powerful crews are able to dominate the first part of the race, gaining an unassailable tactical advantage, but then rarely have the required endurance to completely row away from their opponents.
So where does this all leave us in our analysis?
Perhaps nowhere. Oxford, at [1.41], are likely favourites because they've looked more impressive in their warm-up races. They spanked Leander by 20 seconds a fortnight ago, and managed to win both parts of a double-header against Molesey. Cambridge, on the other hand, had to work harder to despatch Leander, and were only able to share the spoils with Molesey. Maybe this should be guiding our punting?
Well, maybe, but then years of compiling my Boat Race spreadsheet has shown me that warm-up performances seem to have little bearing on the result of the big one.
All things considered then, I'm going in on Cambridge at [3.35]. They'll use their greater power to get out to an early lead, and then it will all be over.
At least that's what my spreadsheet tells me. And Des wouldn't have lied to me for all those years, would he?
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