Champions League 
/ Michael Cox / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Benfica right-back Maxi Pereira might be a decent bet for a booking
"Nicolas Gaitan seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player."
The first leg saw Chelsea snatch a crucial away goal, and now Benfica have to score at Stamford Bridge. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle.
Chelsea v Benfica, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.
Match odds: Chelsea [1.77], Benfica [5.5], The Draw [3.9]
Despite the balance of the tie having shifted towards Chelsea, it's difficult to see how the two teams will line-up particularly differently to at the Estadio Da Luz. There are slight doubts over the fitness of a centre-back on either side - David Luiz for Chelsea, and also Jardel, the man who effectively replaced Luiz at Benfica. Aside from that, don't expect any major surprises.
The onus is on Jorge Jesus to get Benfica back into this tie - they must score to prevent elimination. In recent years in Europe, Jesus has often preferred a more cautious approach away from home, with playmaker Pablo Aimar dropping to the bench, and an additional holding midfielder coming into the side. But that was generally when Aimar played at the tip of the diamond behind a front two - now he's fielded behind just one forward, Oscar Cardozo, and I expect that to continue here.
Another option would be to play another striker like Bruno Rodrigo from the start, with Aimar deeper (or on the bench) - but this is probably too offensive, and Benfica will look to get a grip in midfield in the early stages. Rodrigo will probably be introduced around the 70 minute mark if Benfica need a goal, with Aimar (substituted in all six of his Champions League starts this season) likely to give way.
Roberto Di Matteo went with a defensive-minded midfield trio of Raul Meireles, Jon Obi Mikel and Ramires in the first game (no Frank Lampard) - and despite being the home side here, I expect another cautious selection. One difference might be the positioning of Ramires - he's been used as a right-of-centre shuttling midfielder for Chelsea until now, but Di Matteo has often favoured him out on the flank, so don't be surprised to see him out on the right wing instead. A position on the left, to prevent his old teammate Maxi Pereira getting forward from full-back, is not impossible - though that would mean moving Juan Mata. He can play in the centre, of course, but Di Matteo probably wants to be more cautious in that zone.
Mata will probably start out on the left and drift inside, and there's a decent chance that Maxi Pereira will stick too tight and be booked tonight. He's collected 17 cards for club and country this season, and I'll back him to pick up another here, at [3.5].
But this game is about how Benfica can get back into the tie, and there are probably three men Chelsea have to watch, in different ways. Axel Witsel competed 49 passes in the first leg, more than any other player, and Chelsea have to prevent him getting too much time on the ball. Instructing someone like Meireles or Ramires to get tight to him would make sense.
The second threat is Nicolas Gaitan, who seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player. He and Bruno Cesar will have license to switch flanks, and Gaitan is quite clever with how he drifts into deep positions on the flanks to provide crosses. Paolo Ferreira, more comfortable coming up the pitch than Branislav Ivanovic, might be a decent option at right-back.
The third dangerman is Cardozo, who had a staggering eight shots in the first match. He'll simply put himself slightly past the penalty spot when the ball is wide, and despite Luiz's good performance in the first leg, Cardozo will probably look to test him in the air again.
But this might be a reasonably narrow game - Benfica play with something approaching a midfield diamond rather than a flat four, while Chelsea's potential wide players - Juan Mata, Ramires, Daniel Sturridge - are unlikely to force many corners. Therefore, backing 9 or less corners at [2.6] might be a decent option.
Recommended bets:
Maxi Pereira to be shown a card at [3.5]
9 or less corners at [2.6]
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