Premier League 
/ Lee Dixon / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Luis Suarez rues yet another missed chance, the story of Liverpool's season
"I don’t think this will be a goalless draw because I’m not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean’s men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games."
Two teams who have seriously under-achieved this campaign meet on Tueday night and it's hard to pick a winner. The draw is over-priced anyway so it makes sense to think a share of the spoils is on the cards, says Lee Dixon.
A match between two sides who really need a win for very different reasons. Blackburn were extremely poor at the weekend and let indiscipline get the better of them both in terms of poor defending and a late red card. As for Liverpool, by hook or by crook, they need to start winning league matches.
Match Odds
You could almost blindly lay Liverpool for every Premier League match they're involved in. They continue to be under-priced both home and away and the odds on offer about them winning games are based solely on reputation and some of the names in that squad. Ten days ago we took a huge price on Newcastle to beat them and they duly obliged in a game they pretty much dominated throughout.
You can probably see where I'm going with this! I simply can't have Liverpool at [2.16] to win a tricky away game against a side fighting for their lives. Ewood Park is a tough place to go and we saw how much Manchester United struggled to break them down last Monday.
The defending champions needed a moment of brilliance from Antonio Valencia and a late second from Ashley Young to put the game to bed and the way the United players celebrated at the end was a good indication of just how tough it was for them.
A few weeks ago I thought the goals of Yakubu would save Blackburn from the drop but he's been a bit quiet over the last few games and they really need him to start firing. He actually seems to save his best for the bigger games so I wouldn't be too surprised if he does a good job of leading the line against a Liverpool defence who seems a shadow of the stingy one that started the season so well.
I think Blackburn are over-priced at [3.9] but the stats don't lie. Opta tell us Rovers have won just two of the last 26 Premier League games against Liverpool so they obviously struggle for some reason against them. But having watched how dogged they were against Manchester United and having said Liverpol were far too short, that means there's definitely value in the draw price at [3.6]
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
I don't think this will be a goalless draw because I'm not sure either defence is good enough to keep a clean sheet. A Blackburn one is a rare sight indeed at Ewood Park with Opta telling us Steve Kean's men have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games.
But neither side is exactly prolific either and in Liverpool's case a clue for that may be in the fact they keep hitting the frame of the goal rather the goal itself. As Opta reveal: the Reds have hit the woodwork 28 times this season. If all their woodwork strikes (and the oppositions') had gone in, they'd be 13 points better off. Other reasons include the fact that no-one has made a good fist of giving Luis Suarez good support and the fact the service to the Uruguyan has often been poor.
1-1 would be my idea of a scoreline but under [2.5] goals is probably the best way to play this.
Bookings Odds
Don't underestimate the importance of such things as the time when a match is played. Night matches can often create a more electric atmosphere, certainly more so than those 12:45 kick-offs we see these days because of TV scheduling. A night game is also more likely to have dew on the grass and that leads to the ball zipping around nicely but also the odd mist-timed tackle.
It's the teams who are playing poorly who often get players booked and let's face it, not many sides in the division are struggling as much as these two.
Frustration boils over because you're not executing game-plans or individuals aren't doing things with the ball that they know they're capable of in training.
This match has the makings of a fiery contest and we should get at least five bookings so nine points and above at around [2.6] appeals.
2pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
2 pts Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.04]
1 pt Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [2.6]
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