I'm more than happy to take a swing at Dandy Boy in the belief that this Irish raider has way more going for him than his double figure price suggests.
Recommended Bets
Back Area Fifty One and lay off at 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:00 @ York
Back Dandy Boy and lay off @ 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:20 @ Newmarket
Back Ponty Acclaim @ 3.02/1 in-running in the 15:35 @ York
Back Royal Rascal in the 17:20 @ York
With Black Caviar back in Australia after her Ascot exploits, Europe's champion sprinter crown is up for grabs. But who will stake a claim in Saturday's July Cup at Newmarket? Several leading fancies could be all at sea if further rain hits HQ and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is hoping an Irish raider can take advantage on the back of a career best effort which may have slipped under the radar.
Now here's a rum old punting puzzle for the July Cup.
Black Caviar is back in Oz after her dramatic Diamond Jubilee win; her nearest Ascot victims Moonlight Cloud and Restidiargent haven't travelled from France; Coolmore have decided not to step Frankel's regular punchbag Excelebration back from a mile; and the likes of Strong Suit and Ortensia line up on the back of very subdued efforts.
Bated Breath and the ex-Australian star Sepoy are almost certainly the fastest horses in this field, but the final climb to the line could pose serious problems for both given the recent storms and I'm more than happy to take a swing at Dandy Boy in the belief that this Irish raider has way more going for him than his double figure price suggests.
If recent sprinting history tells us one thing it is that the gap between top handicaps like the Wokingham and major sprint can be bridged by the right horse.
Fayr Jag did it after landing the Wokingham from a BHA mark of 102; so did Deacon Blues after his Wokingham win off 98 last year, while Iffraaj came within an ace of landing the 2006 July Cup having landed the Wokingham off a BHA perch of 101 in 2005.
Dandy Boy was racing from a BHA mark of 106 when springing a 33-1 surprise for his Wokingham win at Ascot last month.
And there wasn't an ounce of fluke about it, as he travelled powerfully under restraint from the start on the far side before quickening impressively to beat a tremendously deep field with real authority.
That win provided a broad hint that Dandy Boy - having spent the vast majority of his career racing over seven furlongs and a mile - is ideally suited by patient tactics in a strongly-run race over a stiff six.
I'm not leaning on the fact that he clocked a faster time than Black Caviar at Ascot.
But I am leaning on the fact that Dandy Boy has suddenly hit a new level stepping down in distance and he makes plenty of appeal as a back to lay option at a working man's price.
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It's a shame the focus on the July Cup will take the spotlight off John Smith's Cup day at York, but that won't worry a massive crowd including any number of jolly boys day out trips gathering on the Knavesmire.
I will be one of those jolly boys trying to blend a bit of boozing with a little more betting and my progress will revolve largely on how a couple of York's favourite sons fare. Richard Fahey and Tim Easterby are the locals in question.
Fahey saddles Area Fifty One for the big race at 15:00 and this highly progressive gelding is well treated under a penalty for his commanding win at Newmarket.
Jockey David Nolan said, "Fast ground is the key," after Area Fifty One had bolted up at HQ.
However, that doesn't tally with his excellent York second on his previous start and, with the good claimer Shane B Kelly booked, Area Fifty One has the ability and prominent racing style to trade much shorter than the current 9 and bigger once things get serious in the straight.
Tim Easterby's Ponty Acclaim and Royal Rascal are the other two to keep an eye on this Saturday.
Ponty Acclaim will be a fair price for the 15:35, but she's a smart filly with solid York form in the book who was far from disgraced from a troublesome draw in Royal Ascot's King's Stand Stakes.
I'm hoping she can show up boldly and trade short in this more suitable grade, while stablemate Royal Rascal bolted up on deep ground over this course and distance two starts ago and did more than enough in defeat behind the well-regarded Euxton Hall at Pontefract. She could be one of the bets of the weekend in the nursery at 17:20.
Recommended Bets
Back Area Fifty One and lay off at 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:00 @ York
Back Dandy Boy and lay off @ 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:20 @ Newmarket
Back Ponty Acclaim @ 3.02/1 in-running in the 15:35 @ York
Back Royal Rascal in the 17:20 @ York
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