Graham Cunningham's Cheltenham Blog: Simonsig very tough to oppose

Day one recommendations

Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase

The speculation is over and it's time for the horses to do the talking on day one of the 2013 Cheltenham Festival. Tradition dictates that trilby hatted sportsmanship rules, but the men below the titfers are desperate for success and Channel 4 analyst Graham Cunningham is relishing the equine and human battles in the three big Grade 1 contests...

The chances of a Fergie-style rant or a Mourinho gallop down the touchline are slim to non existent, but don't make the mistake of thinking the big names of Cheltenham are any less driven than their footballing counterparts.

Cast your mind back to Aintree last April when Neptune Collonges recorded the narrowest winning margin in history to give Paul Nicholls that long awaited first Grand National success.

Nicholls had aimed any number of good horses at the Aintree showpiece without success and could have been forgiven for basking in the glory of finally landing the world's most famous chase.

But instead some of the first words to come out of his mouth were "that's blown Nicky out of the water."

The Nicky in question was Nicky Henderson, who remains favourite to dethrone Nicholls as champion trainer for the first time in seven years and heads back to Cheltenham with a potent hand headed by Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Bobs Worth and backed up by the likes of My Tent Or Yours, Oscar Whisky and Long Run.

Henderson's patrician approach inspires devotion from old school jumping fans and caution from some exchange players - witness Grandouet's volatile progress in the Champion Hurdle market of late - but Nicholls is the most feisty of competitors and will not give up his crown lightly as Zarkandar bids to make it 4-0 in his running battles with Grandouet.

Nor will he be keen to see his former assistant Harry Fry trump the pair with former Nicholls star Rock On Ruby, while Carlow powerhouse Willie Mullins heads to the Festival with the most powerful Irish team ever assembled and is confident Hurricane Fly is back to the form which saw him land the Champion in ruthlessly efficient fashion two years ago.

And all that reckons without the spiky banter which has been such a feature of the preamble to the heavyweight clash between Simonsig and Overturn in the Arkle Chase.

Henderson has suggested that the trailblazing Overturn will give Simonsig the perfect lead, while the normally laid back Donald McCain has bristled quietly in response having seen many a fancied rival crumble when faced with the sort of heat his stable star brings to battle.

True, it's hardly the sort of trash talk which accompanies heavyweight boxing, but the subtleties of the personal battles will add huge interest to the equine duels in this year's Festival.

But what about the tactical subtleties of the three big races on day one?

Tactics shouldn't be crucial in the opening Supreme Novices' Hurdle if My Tent Or Yours is in the same form that saw him turn an ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle into a procession at Newbury.

Timeform ratings give him a great deal in hand and the unbeaten Irish raider Un Atout is the other to focus on in a race which will almost certainly be run at a stronger pace than the Champion Hurdle over the same distance.

The lack of an obvious front runner has been a constant talking point with regard to the Champion, while an added layer of intrigue has been added with news that Fry has decided to fit the outwardly uncomplicated Rock On Ruby with blinkers for the first time.

Fry will be hailed as a wizard if the plan comes off - and if forced to choose Rock On Ruby would get my vote - but the combination of soft ground and slight concerns about the headgear have put me off a little.

By contrast, I've switched from being open minded to clear cut on the Arkle.

It's always difficult to bet against your heart in a big race and I would love to see McCain gaze across to Hendo in the winner's enclosure and give him that knowing smile if Overturn can turn Simonsig away.

But the more I look at the Arkle the more I suspect this sets up perfectly for Simonsig.

Overturn will blaze as usual and the pressure on jumping will be very high given that Arvika Ligeonniere and Majala can also force the pace. However, a frenetic gallop could be exactly what Simonsig needs to show his brilliance.

A runaway winner of last year's Neptune Hurdle, Simonsig has slaughtered small chase fields at Ascot and Kempton with a combination of sound jumping and a relentless cruising gallop.

Expect Barry Geraghty to bide his time before loping into contention coming down the hill.

Overturn won't lie down if challenged, but Simonsig looks better equipped for conditions now the ground has turned soft and even at 1.75/7 or thereabouts he looks very tough to oppose.

Last but not least on day one, a word on the Cross Country Chase.

My original fancy Balthazar King misses out due to the soft ground, but the weekend deluge is great news for Arabella Boy.

Enda Bolger's gelding departed six out here in December but his overall profile in this discipline is progressive and impressive. Don't expect to see him on the scene too early. Do expect to see him play a significant part in the finish.

Day one recommendations

Back My Tent Or Yours and Un Atout in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Back Simonsig in the Arkle Chase
Back Arabella Boy win and place in the Cross Country Chase

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Graham Cunningham's In-play Tips: Saturday at Newmarket and York

I'm more than happy to take a swing at Dandy Boy in the belief that this Irish raider has way more going for him than his double figure price suggests.

Recommended Bets
Back Area Fifty One and lay off at 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:00 @ York
Back Dandy Boy and lay off @ 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:20 @ Newmarket
Back Ponty Acclaim @ 3.02/1 in-running in the 15:35 @ York
Back Royal Rascal in the 17:20 @ York

With Black Caviar back in Australia after her Ascot exploits, Europe's champion sprinter crown is up for grabs. But who will stake a claim in Saturday's July Cup at Newmarket? Several leading fancies could be all at sea if further rain hits HQ and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham is hoping an Irish raider can take advantage on the back of a career best effort which may have slipped under the radar.

Now here's a rum old punting puzzle for the July Cup.

Black Caviar is back in Oz after her dramatic Diamond Jubilee win; her nearest Ascot victims Moonlight Cloud and Restidiargent haven't travelled from France; Coolmore have decided not to step Frankel's regular punchbag Excelebration back from a mile; and the likes of Strong Suit and Ortensia line up on the back of very subdued efforts.

Bated Breath and the ex-Australian star Sepoy are almost certainly the fastest horses in this field, but the final climb to the line could pose serious problems for both given the recent storms and I'm more than happy to take a swing at Dandy Boy in the belief that this Irish raider has way more going for him than his double figure price suggests.

If recent sprinting history tells us one thing it is that the gap between top handicaps like the Wokingham and major sprint can be bridged by the right horse.

Fayr Jag did it after landing the Wokingham from a BHA mark of 102; so did Deacon Blues after his Wokingham win off 98 last year, while Iffraaj came within an ace of landing the 2006 July Cup having landed the Wokingham off a BHA perch of 101 in 2005.

Dandy Boy was racing from a BHA mark of 106 when springing a 33-1 surprise for his Wokingham win at Ascot last month.

And there wasn't an ounce of fluke about it, as he travelled powerfully under restraint from the start on the far side before quickening impressively to beat a tremendously deep field with real authority.

That win provided a broad hint that Dandy Boy - having spent the vast majority of his career racing over seven furlongs and a mile - is ideally suited by patient tactics in a strongly-run race over a stiff six.

I'm not leaning on the fact that he clocked a faster time than Black Caviar at Ascot.

But I am leaning on the fact that Dandy Boy has suddenly hit a new level stepping down in distance and he makes plenty of appeal as a back to lay option at a working man's price.

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It's a shame the focus on the July Cup will take the spotlight off John Smith's Cup day at York, but that won't worry a massive crowd including any number of jolly boys day out trips gathering on the Knavesmire.

I will be one of those jolly boys trying to blend a bit of boozing with a little more betting and my progress will revolve largely on how a couple of York's favourite sons fare. Richard Fahey and Tim Easterby are the locals in question.

Fahey saddles Area Fifty One for the big race at 15:00 and this highly progressive gelding is well treated under a penalty for his commanding win at Newmarket.

Jockey David Nolan said, "Fast ground is the key," after Area Fifty One had bolted up at HQ.

However, that doesn't tally with his excellent York second on his previous start and, with the good claimer Shane B Kelly booked, Area Fifty One has the ability and prominent racing style to trade much shorter than the current 9 and bigger once things get serious in the straight.

Tim Easterby's Ponty Acclaim and Royal Rascal are the other two to keep an eye on this Saturday.

Ponty Acclaim will be a fair price for the 15:35, but she's a smart filly with solid York form in the book who was far from disgraced from a troublesome draw in Royal Ascot's King's Stand Stakes.

I'm hoping she can show up boldly and trade short in this more suitable grade, while stablemate Royal Rascal bolted up on deep ground over this course and distance two starts ago and did more than enough in defeat behind the well-regarded Euxton Hall at Pontefract. She could be one of the bets of the weekend in the nursery at 17:20.

Recommended Bets
Back Area Fifty One and lay off at 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:00 @ York
Back Dandy Boy and lay off @ 4.03/1 in-running in the 15:20 @ Newmarket
Back Ponty Acclaim @ 3.02/1 in-running in the 15:35 @ York
Back Royal Rascal in the 17:20 @ York

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