Sunderland look big at 3.45n/a against Liverpool.
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Andrew Atherley has been impressed by Sunderland's start to the season, he holds their manager in high esteem and reckons the Black Cats are value to pile more misery on Liverpool this Saturday...
Sunderland, like neighbours Newcastle last season, could be surprise high achievers this season and they look capable of proving the point at home to Liverpool on Saturday. There are interesting parallels between Sunderland's form under Martin O'Neill and how Newcastle stood at this time last season. Like O'Neill now, Alan Pardew was starting his first full season as Newcastle boss having taken charge early the previous December and stabilised their results.
Both managers had achieved flashes of even better form with good results against top-six sides, pointing to further improvement with a summer of preparation and squad-building behind them. O'Neill did even better than Pardew in his first part-season, with an average of 1.42 points per game (Pardew's was 1.23). Without any improvement in that points average, Sunderland would finish this season in the top half of the table.
But the underlying form indicates Sunderland might be able to aim towards the top six. There was a big split in their form last season, which appears to have been caused by their FA Cup quarter-final exit against Everton in March. Prior to that, Sunderland had been flying under O'Neill with a Premier League points average of 1.81 per game.
Afterwards, however, Sunderland were caught in the classic trap of a mid-table side with nothing tangible to play for and they appeared to ease off, failing to win in the eight Premier League games that followed their FA Cup exit. The late-season slump dragged down their points average and a return to their previous higher level would make them dangerous opponents for any team, as they lost only five of O'Neill's first 16 Premier League games.
Having started with away draws at Arsenal and Swansea, Sunderland look just as solid this season and they have added quality in attack with the signings of Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson. On their form under O'Neill, and with the prospect of further improvement, Sunderland look big at 3.45n/a against Liverpool.
Liverpool's players know as well as anyone how tough Sunderland have become under O'Neill, as they lost 1-0 at the Stadium of Light shortly before the Black Cats played that crunch FA Cup tie against Everton. That victory is part of a home league record of six wins, four draws and just two defeats for O'Neill's Sunderland (the two losses coming against Manchester United and Arsenal). Liverpool may well have to play like a potential top-four side to beat Sunderland and, given their sticky start under Brendan Rodgers, they look a considerable way from that standard at the moment.
Liverpool, in fact, have lost eight out of 11 on the road in the Premier League in 2012. They won the other three but only against Wolves, Blackburn and Norwich (two of whom were relegated last season). Backing them at 2.3411/8 against a potential top-half side looks risky.
One option is Sunderland off 0 & +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.9210/11, which offers insurance against Sunderland's high draw rate, but the win odds look worth chancing.
Pick of the stats
Norwich v West Ham
Norwich have kept just three clean sheets in 41 Premier League games since promotion and have won only five out of 17 when conceding at home
Aston Villa v Swansea
Villa have won only two of their 22 league games in 2012, with 10 defeats
Stoke v Manchester City
Stoke are unbeaten in five home games in league and cup against City since promotion. Four of the five have been draws
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