"Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and this is his biggest test so far."
Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5
Manchester City are odds-on favourites despite being winless in three matches, and potentially without key players through injury. Michael Cox considers how Manuel Pellegrini might adjust, while Alan Thompson has the betting lowdown...
Manchester City v Manchester United
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1
Match Odds: Manchester City 1.9520/21, Manchester United 4.67/2, The Draw 3.814/5.
Manchester City are unquestionably favourites for Sunday's Manchester derby, but following a poor run of form, confidence at the Etihad is in short supply - and Manchester United are coming into this fixture with their tails up.
The Manchester derby is a particularly intriguing fixture. Consider the balance of power in the long-term, medium-term and short-term, and you get very different answers. While United have undoubtedly been the strongest team over the last decade, and City superior over the past year, considering the last month - or even week - is a lot trickier.
United still haven't entirely clicked under Louis van Gaal, but they're unbeaten in four matches, whereas City haven't won in their last three. This game might be closer than previously anticipated.
City are also being troubled by injuries. David Silva is definitely out with a knee problem, while Yaya Toure is rated as doubtful. Silva brings the creativity and incision to City, while Toure brings power to City's side. Without these two, the Citizens are a much weaker attacking force.
Manuel Pellegrini's team selection, therefore, is highly dependent upon the fitness of Toure, and it could even define his formation. Pellegrini has increasingly played Silva behind Sergio Aguero in a 4-2-3-1 for big matches, but he could play a 4-4-2 with Edin Dzeko alongside Aguero here, or put Toure behind the main striker.
Fernando and Fernandinho would be the midfield partnership without Toure, with the returning Samir Nasri on the left and James Milner on the right. It's a lot boxier than a potential 4-2-3-1 featuring Silva and Toure in central positions.
There's less of a question mark about Van Gaal's system. Wayne Rooney is suspended and Radamel Falcao still injured, so it seems unlikely United will revert to a midfield diamond, and the 4-1-4-1 proved reasonably effective against Chelsea last weekend.
However, don't rule out a couple of changes - Adnan Januzaj could be dropped with Ander Herrera returning, perhaps meaning Juan Mata being shifted out to the flank.
The most interesting zone, however, is in front of the Manchester United back four. This is where Daley Blind will be stationed, and this is arguably his first real test in a United shirt. Against Chelsea last weekend, he was up against Oscar, a fine playmaker - but a player who suits Blind's skillset, providing a technical and tactical test.
This time around, Blind could be faced with multiple players coming inside into his zone - it's possible, for example, that Nasri will be drifting in from the left, Aguero dropping deep, and Toure storming forward. Toure, in particular, would be a huge challenge for Blind, who isn't the most physically imposing player. Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and I'll back him to be shown another card at 4.216/5.
He'll depend upon good support from his midfield colleagues, particularly Marouane Fellaini, who provides strength and height against Toure. Expect United to be forced back into their own half for long periods, and their best attacks might come on the break - Angel Di Maria was subdued against Chelsea, but remains their greatest threat.
Robin van Persie, quiet in recent weeks, must also be more involved this time around, and his battle against Vincent Kompany should be particularly interesting.
This seems like another game for Aguero, though. Manchester United's centre-backs continue to look nervous, and playing relatively high up the pitch too - which plays into Aguero's hands, because of his sheer speed. The Argentine has opened the scoring in four of his nine starts so far this season, and I'll back him to score another opener here, at 5.69/2.
Recommended Bets
Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5
Back Sergio Aguero as first goalscorer at 5.69/2
Without a victory in their last three starts in all competitions Manchester City head into this weekend’s derby in a must win situation. City have already dropped as many points at home as they did in the entire 2013-14 Premier League season and trail Chelsea by six points already.
While the Red Devils certainly made progress against Chelsea last week it doesn’t disguise the fact that they have still failed to win any of their last six Premier League away days. United have kept just two clean sheets this season, against Queens Park Rangers and Burnley, the two clubs currently propping up the Premier League.
I can see this game producing a few goals again with City really needing to win and United offering quality and a threat going forward. A look at the head-to-head’s shows there have also been plenty of goals to enjoy in the Manchester derbies recently. Both teams have scored in five of the last seven meetings with City scoring at least twice in five of them.
I think City will get back to winning ways but priced around 2.0 they are short enough. As I am expecting an entertaining encounter and I will take a chance on backing City to win 2-1 @ 10 and 3-1 @ 16.
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