Star of the show last week was Fleur East, and if I wasn’t already on at 40.039/1 I would likely be piling in at her current odds of 6.411/2, which still look value.
Two winning tips in a row sees him in his customary profitable position. In Halloween-themed Fright-Night Week, Jack Houghton thinks Stereo Kicks are vulnerable, and that Fleur East will continue to impress...
What Happened Last Week?
Novelty acts aside, Jake Quickenden gave perhaps the worst performance in X-Factor history, with a key change that had dogs around the country searching for the mute button. Only The Young were their usual disunited self. As written about before, there is statistical backing to suggest that opening the show puts acts at a significant disadvantage, and so neither Quickenden nor Only The Young gave themselves any chance of automatic survival.
It was a fairly dismal week all round really. For all that Cowell might have plans for previously-signed Jay James, his voice is thin and whiny, and both his look and sound is uncomfortably over-produced; the big-Italian-bear Andrea Faustini continued to be as one-dimensional as a straight line; Lola Saunders was hideously nasal and out-of-tune; Paul Akister's lack of self-confidence is becoming wearisome; Jack Walton's version of Eye of the Tiger was bizarre, and he was likely only saved because of a late billing; Stevie Ritchie was what he is; and Stereo Kicks are unique among boy bands in that only 12 ½% of them can actually sing.
Even Lauren Platt and Ben Haenow were pedestrian, with Platt's I'm-going-to-sing-this-one-straight coming over as boredom, and Haenow worryingly showing moments of weakness on the big notes. I still think Platt is a certain finalist and am still hopeful about Haenow's chances, but I can see why his odds have drifted out to 12.5n/a in the Winner Market.
Star of the show last week, though, was Fleur East, and if I wasn't already on at 40.039/1 I would likely be piling in at her current odds of 6.411/2, which still look value.
What Will Happen This Week?
Never ones to search for originality, the producers have made this week a Halloween-themed Fright-Night special, and have also announced that two acts will be eliminated: the one with the fewest votes at the end of Saturday's live show; along with another contestant as normal after a sing-off on the Sunday. Don't rely totally on this announcement, though - as previously warned, the show format can change rapidly and scupper bets made in good faith.
One certainty, however, is that Dermot O'Leary will open the show by saying, "As if Fright-Night wasn't scary enough for our contestants, our very own warlock overlord Simon Cowell has announced that two acts will be eliminated this weekend, with one act leaving us at the end of tonight's show." Seriously, if anyone offers you odds, fill your boots.
Who's For The Chop?
Jack Walton has to be vulnerable at 2.68/5, but if he can knock out an inoffensive acoustic version of Bleeding Love, he might yet survive another week. Many will fancy Only The Young to go at 4.57/2, but they might do okay with a comedic version of Monster Mash and can survive until at least Sunday.
I still think that current show favourite Andrea Faustini is susceptible to a surprise early elimination, but perhaps not quite yet.
All of which leaves me with Lola Saunders and Stereo Kicks as the most likely to go on Saturday. And at an enormous 26.025/1 in the Sixth Elimination Market, it's an easy choice to plump for a small bet on the eight-piece boy-band, especially as they are due to be singing a Backstreet Boys' song, which can only end in disaster.
Recommended Bets:
1-point back Stereo Kicks at 26.025/1 in Sixth Elimination Market.
Profit/Loss on Settled Bets = +2.4pts
Previously Recommended:
1-point back Fleur East at 40.039/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
2-point back Ben Haenow at 8.07/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
2-point back Lauren Platt at 7.26/1 in Winner Market - OPEN
1-point back Steph Nala at 3.412/5 in Third Elimination Market - WON
1-point back Only The Young at 12.5n/a in Third Elimination Market - LOST
1-point back Jake Quickenden at 3.02/1 in Fifth Elimination Market - WON
1-point back Lola Saunders at 20.019/1 in Fifth Elimination Market - LOST
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