Tipping
/ Mark Powell-Bevan / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment
Rewilding (in Godolphin Blue) beats So You Think in the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Ascot
"Rewilding has already defeated the horse who is probably the [Ballydoyle] stable’s no 1 and shouldn’t be a bigger price than St Nicholas Abbey, having 4 lb to spare over the market leader according to Timeform ratings."
St Nicholas Abbey heads the market for the Betfair sponsored King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on July 23, but the value lies elsewhere. Timeform's Mark Powell-Bevan explains why he'll be betting against the favourite...
It's easy to see why St Nicholas Abbey is currently trading as favourite, recently backed into as short as [2.18], as this year he has justified the high regard in which he's always been held by the Ballydoyle hype machine. Injuries stopped him making up into the 3-y-o that everyone expected after an exception juvenile campaign which saw him crowned the best in Europe, but this year he has again showed himself the real deal.
Things didn't look good when SNA flopped on his reappearance at the Curragh, his first run since the Guineas, but he's got himself firmly back on track on his last two starts in running away with the Ormonde at Chester (won by nine lengths) and beating Midday in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.
However, there's always something fishy about wide-margin winners at Chester and, for a long way, he looked inferior to Midday in the Coronation Cup, with Henry Cecil's filly rather throwing the race away by idling as she got to the front, and at cramped odds St Nicholas Abbey just has to be taken on in the King George.
It's still possible that Workforce will line up at Ascot. Sir Michael Stoute's Derby and Arc winner has been matched at a high of [21.0] but is now available to back at [7.4], suggesting there is still a chance that Stoute will run him, although his owner Khalid Abdulla has a ready-made replacement in the aforementioned Midday ([18.0]), who admittedly wasn't at her best last time when runner-up in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh last time, failing to travel or find as she can behind Misty For Me. However, Midday's record at the top level is excellent and it would be no surprise to see her bounce back.
Workforce was defeated by So You Think in the Eclipse at Sandown last time but came out of the race with his reputation and standing enhanced if anything, probably finding a mile and a quarter on fast ground sharp enough for him. Stoute has already stated that a repeat win in the Arc is the main aim for Workforce, who flopped behind Harbinger in the King George last year, but unless the ground is really firm, which is apparently the main concern, then Workforce could still take his place-if he disappoints then connections can use the ready-made excuse that he was 'Ascotted' again and move on to Longchamp.
However, whilst it's tempting to take the [7.4] available on Workforce, in the knowledge that he'll be much less than half the price if he makes the final line-up, there is too much risk involved in that particular ante-post bet (second guessing Sir Michael Stoute isn't easy) and it's probably better to wait until he's a confirmed runner to take the plunge, with the likelihood being that he'll shorten again before the off.
The trainers of St Nicholas Abbey and Workforce, Aidan O'Brien and Sir Michael Stoute, have won each of the last four King Georges between them, but it wasn't so long ago that Godolphin used to farm the race.
Saeed bin Suroor has been successful with such star names as Swain (twice), Daylami and, most recently, Doyen (in 2004), but this time it is Mahmood Al Zarooni who gets the chance to land the Ascot showpiece for the Godolphin outfit with stable flag-bearer Rewilding.
Rewilding has done little wrong since joining his current handler, a flop when favourite for the Leger the only real blemish on his record. Since then, Rewilding has shown himself one of the best middle-distance horses around, winning the Dubai Sheema Classic in March before showing his versatility trip-wise in dropping down to a mile and a quarter to beat So You Think in the Prince of Wales' Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Whilst tactics (and Dettori's whip) played their part at Ascot, with Rewilding seeming to benefit from being waited with longer than So You Think in a strongly-run race, the neck victory proved two things. One - that he handles Ascot (a notoriously difficult track). Two - that his form entitles him to be favourite for the King George.
The news that Nathaniel ([12.0]) will miss the Grand Prix de Paris adds another dimension to the King George, as it's a distinct possibility (he needs to be supplemented at a cost of £75,000) that he will now turn up back over the course and distance of his imperious King Edward VII success. The way Nathaniel won that day suggested he is a middle-distance Group 1 winner in the making, but he'll be taking on a whole different calibre of horse in the King George (acknowledging he lost out only to subsequent Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach on his previous outing in the Vase at Chester) and still has to prove himself.
It's typical of a race of this nature that the Ballydoyle horse is automatically made favourite, but Rewilding has already defeated the horse who is probably the stable's no 1 and shouldn't be a bigger price than St Nicholas Abbey, having 4 lb to spare over the market leader according to Timeform ratings.
There's a feeling that Rewilding is best kept fresh, which is the only slight concern, but five weeks should be long enough for him to have got over his Royal Ascot exertions, and he has to be the selection at [3.7].
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Back Rewilding @ [3.7] in the King George at Ascot
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