Torneo Final Tip Sheet: Godoy can snare a road win at a phenomenal price

"Their game with San Martín is a bit of a derby game with these sides the two biggest club in the west of Argentina, but San Martín - who haven't won in 16 games - will need more than the atmosphere boost of a rivalry to play at Godoy Cruz's standard, and we're backing the visitors at the phenomenal price of 2.89/5."

Ed Malyon previews this weekend's action in Argentina, and believes title-chasing Godoy Cruz are a phenomenal price to get the better of San Martín de San Juan...

Saturday
Argentinos Juniors v All Boys - 17:00
Ricardo Caruso Lombardi's hiring as a 'firefighter' usually signals an improvement in teams, and after he saved San Lorenzo last season he has been charged with doing the same for rock-bottom Argentinos. They couldn't be much worse, and as a good motivator we expect the notorious vendehumo to improve them but not so quickly that they would be 2.47/5 favourites for this weekend's game with All Boys. 

A fairly solid lay at that price, with the visitors a real tough nut to crack.

Recommended Bet
Lay Argentinos at 2.56/4

River Plate v Vélez Sarsfield - 21:10
Check out our big match preview for a look at this weekend's humdinger at el Monumental.

Sunday
Independiente v Boca Juniors - 18:15
Boca rarely have such an early kick-off, so you know it's a derby game when their fixtures are brought forward like this.

Independiente's Avellaneda home is only a few miles south of La Bombonera, and these two near(ish) neighbours both proudly claim to be the most successful clubs in Argentina with Boca boasting a world record 18 international titles and el Rojo a record seven Copa Libertadores wins.

The last year has been poor for the two of them though, and while Independiente fight against relegation, Boca have struggled to impress under new (old) boss Carlos Bianchi. After such success with the club in the middle of the last decade, the fans have been somewhat dumbstruck when the return of the viceroy and talisman Juan Román Riquelme turned out to be a fairly unhappy one.

Winless in five league games and with their Copa Libertadores campaign still very much in the balance, most other managers arriving at Boca would be under some serious pressure, but a defeat to rivals Independiente would begin to make things even more awkward and at current there's little sign of things turning round. 

In what will likely be a tense and heated clásico - any game between two of Argentina's big five is labelled thus - a result seems impossible to pick, and instead we are better served looking at the goals markets.

A big problem for the Xeneize has been their defence, which has lacked leadership since Rolando Schiavi left the club. New arrival Chiqui Perez has tried, withMatías Caruzzo, to adapt to the high defensive line favoured by Bianchi but it's been a disaster, and Caruzzo's fondness for giving away penalties has been costly. 

This should be feisty, error-strewn and accompanied by a great atmosphere, so we fancy both teams to score as our bet for this one.

Recommended Bet
Both teams to score at 2.1211/10

San Martín de San Juan v Godoy Cruz - 20:10
They've had an easy start to the season but you can only beat what's put in front of you and Martín Palermo's Godoy Cruz are in the title mix as things stand. 

Their game with San Martín is a bit of a derby game with these sides the two biggest club in the west of Argentina, but San Martín - who haven't won in 16 games - will need more than the atmosphere boost of a rivalry to play at Godoy Cruz's standard, and we're backing the visitors at the phenomenal price of 2.89/5. 

How the hosts are favourites for this is an absolute mystery. 

Recommended bet: Back Godoy Cruz 0 on Asian Handicap at 1.9310/11

San Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys - 22:10
This game should be a corker, with both clubs playing some great football under progressive coaches - but don't expect many goals.

San Lore have the best defence in the league, with just two goals conceded all season, while Newell's only saw 11 get through them in the whole of last season. 

With the added burden of Copa Libertadores football Gerardo Martino has not been able to keep his defence as tight, but they are still a very strong side who thrive on possession and boast the best player in the country in Ignacio Scocco

We'd back the unders if it weren't such a short price, so it may be better to just watch this one for the spectacle - no bet.

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Michael Vaughan: Phenomenal Dhoni to lead India to victory again

ODI preview / Michael Vaughan / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Captain's knock. Dhoni's well-paced 35 not out got India over the line in the 3rd ODI.

"If England bat first and get more than 300 they’ll once again go close but the smart money is on India prevailing again at [1.7], against an England side who still can’t come to term with the conditions and don’t seem to learn from their mistakes."

Michael Vaughan is full of praise for the Indian captain and has a few harsh words to say about England's inability to learn from their mistakes. The latter will cost Alastair Cook's men again, as India go 4-0 up.

England came much closer to winning a match than they did in the first couple of ODIs on Thursday but it wasn't quite enough.

Where did they lose the game? Firstly, in the bowling department. India bowled full and straight, whereas England were guilty of bowling short and wide far too often. Those are freebies on these wickets to batsmen of this calibre.

Jonathan Trott played really well to score 98 but when the analysts in the England backroom staff crunched the numbers in the aftermath of the match, they'll have picked up on the fact he only scored one boundary during the last 10 overs. For a batsmen who is well set on a good wicket, that's simply not enough.

And finally, and most worryingly of all, there was the fielding. Dropped catches, missed run-outs, overthrows. You name it, England were guilty of it. Which is all the more remarkable when you consider that just a couple of months ago it was the Indians who were slow and clumsy in the field and England who looked energetic and sharp.

In the end it was left to MS Dhoni to play a typical 'finisher's' role and score the winning runs with another of those wristy drives to the boundary rope. Dhoni is a phenomenal limited-overs player, arguably the best in the business. Not since Australia's Michael Bevan has a batsman been so good at pacing a run chase. He knows how long he has to play himself in, knows when to accelerate and has an instinct for where to score his runs. Dhoni almost always finishes the innings unbeaten.

But at 30 he may decide that he needs to cut back on his workload in the near future. Keeping wicket, batting in the middle order and captaining India in all three formats takes a hell of a lot out of you and he may decide to give up the Test captaincy over the next couple of years, or indeed give up the longest format altogether. We'll have to wait and see but for the time being England have to work out a way of getting him out or else this series is only going one way and that's towards a whitewash.

Can we make a case for England winning the fourth ODI in Mumbai? We said already that their best chance was to post a big score and try to defend it by taking early wickets and hope the pressure of a big run chase got to the batsmen. Well, 298 looked like an imposing total on Thursday but in the end it was a relatively comfortable chase for India, when you consider they still had five wickets in hand. If England bat first and get more than 300 they'll once again go close but the smart money is on India prevailing again at [1.7], against an England side who still can't come to term with the conditions and don't seem to learn from their mistakes.

Alastair Cook's side are terrific on green wickets at home where the ball moves all over the place. But a 5-0 loss here in India a couple of years ago, a 6-1 drubbing against Australia in January this year and losses to Ireland and Bangladesh at the World Cup are all proof they simply can't replicate that form away from England. The first thing the management need to address is the issue of the wickets they prepare back home. If they're going to play on 300+ wickets away, they need to have practice of playing on those on English soil. Get used to hitting more sixes, learn to take wickets when there's no assistance and learn to use spin to reduce the run rate. Until they do that, they're a pretty one-dimensional team.

On the plus side, Kevin Pietersen has scored 46 and 64 in his last two matches and is looking his old confident, aggressive self. A big knock from KP may not be enough to win England the match but at [5.0] he's the stand-out bet to top score for his side.

3 pts Back India to win @ [1.7]
2 pts Back Kevin Pietersen to be England top batsman @ [5.0]

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