Victoria Cup: Lightning set to strike at Ascot

"The fact that Lightning Cloud has had a run this time, as opposed to 12 months ago, could be key as that Thirsk outing ought to have sharpened him up both physically and mentally..."

Timeform's Matt Gardner looks ahead to this weekend's Victoria Cup, which takes place over seven furlongs at Ascot on Saturday...

The Victoria Cup is one of THE competitive handicaps of the Flat season. Often, even on a mundane day of racing, a race will be referred to as being competitive but affairs such as the Victoria Cup, the Wokingham, the Stewards Cup and the Royal Hunt Cup take the ferocity of competition to a whole new level. Little betters the sight of 28 horses taking flight down the track, sometimes as one mass and others as several scattered battalions, in hope of becoming the latest "Saturday horse", the one that connections have managed to keep just ahead of its mark in the hope of landing one of these valuable prizes. 

Levitate (Lincoln), Haaf A Sixpence (Spring Cup) and Norse Blues (Thirsk Hunt Cup) have tasted success in the three cavalry charges that have taken place so far this term, with just one of them seeking to add this contest to their role of honour. 

Haaf A Sixpence had something of a tune up for his tilt at Newbury's Spring Cup when finishing third in the Spring Mile at Doncaster (had he landed that race I would have accredited him with an additional half a point in terms of big handicaps won this season, it's only a consolation race after all), and he went on to produce his best effort yet in beating Guest Of Honour by a length. He remains relative novices in terms of races run having taken to the track on just nine occasions and what is noticeable from a quick glance at his record is his strike-rate, with him landing the spoils four times. The handicapper has hit him with a rise of 5 lb, taking his BHA mark to 90, which might just be enough to seem him make the cut and seems unlikely to prevent him putting up a bold show. Ante-post word of warning: Haaf A Sixpence is also entered at Chester on Friday.  

The aforementioned Guest Of Honour is certainly worthy of revisiting as the panache with which he travelled through the Spring Cup suggested that he could well have one of these handicaps in his locker. The four-year-old has done nothing but improve throughout his seven-race career, taking his form to a new level in first-time cheekpieces and on just his second race on turf as he chased home Haaf A Sixpence, but what most caught the eye was how stylishly he went about his business, adding weight to the impression that he is yet to reach his limit. Ante-post word of warning number two: Guest Of Honour is entered in the same race at Chester. 

The next on our hit list quite simply has to be the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Enrol, a lightly-raced four-year-old filly who is closely related to the useful sprinter Enact. Enrol took a couple of outings to get her act together but, having landed a Lingfield maiden, she has demonstrated no signs of looking back in two starts since, scoring impressively at both Wolverhampton and Doncaster. Enrol has also been raised to a mark of 90, some 8 lb higher than for her most recent success, but with the Stoute yard firing on all cylinders at present and the suspicion being that Enrol will prove herself at an even higher level at some stage, she has to be firmly on any punters' radar. Ante-post word of warning number three: there isn't one really, although she does need a few to come out in order to gain a place in the field.

David O'Meara is rapidly making a name for himself in the training ranks, particularly with horses he acquires from other yards and abroad, and Two For Two has the hallmarks of being yet another excellent addition to his stable. The five-year-old, formerly trained in France by Nicolas Clement, finished second on debut for O'Meara after six months off the track but he has improved upon that form since, readily landing a good-quality handicap at Ripon last month. He was fancied to supplement that success with further glory in the Thirsk Hunt Cup but could only finish second, although things hardly went his way as, having been drawn wide, he was hampered before halfway which cost him vital ground before he stayed on in eye-catching fashion. This race comes fairly soon on the back of that but if that proves not to be a stumbling block he looks certain to be in the firing line. 

A final one to mention in detail is Lightening Cloud, who has previous in this race having finished fifth 12 months ago. The five-year-old progressed right through 2011, hitting the mark on five occasions, and he kicked off in 2012 with the anticipation that yet more success would be forthcoming. His effort in this race was a good one, leading his group in the centre of the track but never able to get on terms with those who raced on the far-side, and he was sent off favourite for the Wokingham on his next outing. He was below form there, and on his next couple of starts, but he bounced back on his final outing of last year and displayed plenty of encouragement on his reappearance at Thirsk last month. 

The fact that Lightning Cloud has had a run this time, as opposed to 12 months ago, could be key as that Thirsk outing ought to have sharpened him up both physically and mentally. The impression is that he is capable of scoring off a mark of 95, the same mark he contested this race off last year, and at the current prices he make plenty of appeal. 

It is possible to make a case for far too many to mention them all by name but a couple worthy of a few words are Cape Classic and Tartiflette. The former arguably has work to do if he is to defy a mark of 97 but he demonstrated his well-being on his seasonal bow at Haydock and strikes as the type that is ideally suited to being held-up off a strong pace. 

Tartiflette actually won that Haydock affair on her own reappearance, posting a career-best effort to score from a 5 lb higher mark than when entering the winners' enclosure at Doncaster at the end of last term. A further 5 lb rise doesn't seem excessive and she is lightly-raced enough to think that she could do better still. 

On balance it is difficult to recommend wading into one in a race of this ilk, particularly with the final field yet to be determined, but at the ante-post stage the most appealing bet is Lightning Cloud. The five-year-old ran well in this race last year without having had a preparatory outing so, with a trip to Thirsk under his belt, he seems certain to put up a bold bid in an attempt to become the latest winner of one of 2013's big handicaps.  

Recommendation:
Back Lightning Cloud in the Victoria Cup

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Timeform Daily: Victoria Cup, Saturday, Ascot 15:25

Race of the Day / Timeform / 07 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ascot Races

"Brae Hill has looked better than ever this year and can gain compensation for an unlucky run in the Spring Cup when he was done no favours by the draw."

Timeform go through the runners for this historic seven-furlong handicap...

Himalya put up some cracking places efforts in some good races over six and seven furlongs last season, including in a Group 2 at Doncaster as well on all three of his starts here. He has looked awkward on occasions though and is proving hard to win with.

Lowther enjoyed a really productive all-weather campaign, winning three times in all, looking better than ever at Wolverhampton in March prior to a fine third in the Spring Cup at Newbury.

Castles In The Air's career highlight came when landing a hotly contested handicap over C&D last July. He had excuses over a mile in the Lincoln on his reappearance, but was more like his old self over six furlongs at Thirsk last time and has probably been readied for this race.

Oasis Dancer progressed again last year to win a handicap and a minor event, the latter at Newbury. He has mainly struggled since, apart from one good effort at Meydan on his reappearance, and needs to raise his game here.

Corporal Maddox won three times for different yards as a two-year-old, but has been lightly raced since,. He offered little promise over five furlongs at Nottingham on his reappearance and looks to start life in handicaps on a stiff mark.

Shamandar won three times as a juvenile in 2009, including a six-furlong listed event at Newbury and a valuable sales race over six and a half furlongs here. This is a big ask returning from such a long absence.

Horseradish is a progressive performer who has won five of his last eight starts, travelling strongly to beat Waffle by three quarters of a length in a Doncaster handicap on his reappearance. He is just as good at seven furlongs and it's doubtful we've seem the best of him yet.

Fathsta is a strong traveller with a potent turn of foot who improve to win a six-furlong handicap at York in October. He showed he's in form with a win in a Warwick minor event last time and his style of racing is well suited to these events.

Golden Desert held his own without success in competitive six- and seven-furlong handicaps last year, including here. He isn't badly handicapped on the pick of those efforts, but is coming here on the back of three modest efforts at Meydan.

Brae Hill has a couple of seven-furlong wins around Chester to his name. He was an excellent second in the Lincoln on his reappearance prior to running well from a poor draw in the Spring Mile. The drop back to seven furlongs is no worry and everything looks set for a bold bid.

Nasri was placed in listed races as a three-year-old when trained by Brian Meehan, but wasn't at his best in 2010 for David Simcock. He bounced back to form for this yard when making all at Musselburgh last time but is unlikely to dominate here.

Bay Knight did well last year, narrowly winning a valuable five-furlong handicap at the Curragh and also a very good fifth in the Portland at Doncaster/ He stays this far and should be all the better for his reappearance.

Rulesn'regulations was well held in competitive handicaps after winning a seven-furlong minor event at Glorious Goodwood last summer and needed the run on his reappearance. Others looks better treated but conditions are fine.

Hawkeyethenoo is a hold-up sprinter who made great strides last year, the best of his three wins coming in a valuable six-furlong handicap a York. He ran an excellent race on his reappearance at Newmarket last week, but the trip could well stretch him here.

Gouray Girl ended last year on the up with a first handicap success tackling seven furlongs for the first time at Newbury in October. She will strip fitter for her recent reappearance, but could well find this too competitive.

Mon Cadeaux won twice over six furlongs as a two-year-old. He was a good third in a seven-furlong listed race at Epsom in June but was well held after and is hard to warm to unless a gelding operation has had a positive effect.

Parisian Pyramid nabbed competitive six-furlong heats at Goodwood and Windsor in 2010. He was a good second at Ripon after but looked some way off his best on his reappearance and has seldom impressed at this trip before.

Manassas's two handicaps success have both come at Doncaster and he again ran well there when third in the Spring Mile on his reappearance. He was mid-field in this last year, but is better handicapped now and could go well.

Noble Citizen is on a long losing run but mostly kept his head above water in competitive handicaps last season. He put in a pretty modest effort on his reappearance, though, and this is much tougher.

Lutine Bell has been a rare improver after leaving Sir Mark Prescott, winning on the all-weather in November. He got back to that sort of form when fourth to Horseradish at Doncaster on his reappearance and the return to this trip is likely to suit.

Excellent Guest mostly contested handicaps at the top tracks last season and gained due reward over C&D in September. He was better than ever when making a winning reappearance at Yarmouth last month, but a 4 lb rise demands more.

Zero Money won twice over seven furlongs last summer and bounced backed from a blip when pushing Docofthebay close at Ayr in September. Further improvement is required for him to take this on his reappearance.

Layla's Hero won five times at five and six furlongs for David Nicholls in 2009 and is now back with that trainer. There wasn't much encouragement to be gleaned from his reappearance but it would be no surprise if he fared better with the run behind him.

Bravo Echo was progressive on polytrack early last season and got back on the up on that surface this winter, recording two stylish wins in January. He was well held in the Spring Cup back on turf last time though and this is just as tough.

Al Muheer enjoyed a productive campaign in 2009 for Clive Brittain, winning a valuable handicap over C&D. He hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can really do for his present stable and it's too soon to be writing him off.

Dhaular Dhar is a hold-up performer who ended a long losing run at Musselburgh in September/ He has shaped well both starts this season without things falling right but he'll need a career best to take this back at seven furlongs.

Douze Points won only a maiden from nine starts in 2009 and didn't look straightforward in a winless campaign last year. He made a good reappearance for his new yard but there's a concern that he'll find this too tough.

Advanced is no stranger success in big-field handicaps, including over C&D. He was fifth on his reappearance and is well handicapped nowadays, but he has become increasingly lazy and isn't so reliable anymore.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Brae Hill
2. Horseradish
3. Castles In The Air

Timeform View: Brae Hill has looked better than ever this year and can gain compensation for an unlucky run in the Spring Cup when he was done no favours by the draw. The return to this trip won't cause a problem and he is just preferred to the progressive Horseradish and stable-companion Castles In The Air, who looks like he has been laid out for this.

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