Euro 2012 11am Bulletin: England's Walcott dilemma

"Walcott is now almost certain to start against the Ukraine but I have my doubts as to whether he'll be able to produce a similar lung-bursting performance for 90 minutes."

Mike Norman reports on yesterday's action, Theo Walcott, tonight's Group A fixtures, and the value play in the Top Goalscorer market.

It never rains but it pours. That's the feeling you had yesterday if you were either 1) in Donetsk watching Ukraine v France, or 2) an England fan after veteran ex-Aston Villa defender Olof Mellberg had given Sweden a 2-1 lead in Kiev.

Euro 2012 has been far from a dull tournament by any means but the star of the show so far was definitely that spectacular thunderstorm that interrupted the start of yesterday's first Group D game. Or was it the sight of several thousand French fans getting soaked to the bone that brought a smile to my face? Let me think about that one.

Victories for France and England have seen their odds in the Winner market reduce slightly; France are third favourites at 9.08/1, England are fourth favourites at 14.013/1. Are these the third and fourth best teams in the tournament? Maybe, but they are some way behind Spain (3.452/1) and Germany (3.92/1) in my eyes.

One man dominates this morning's media - England's man of the match from last night Theo Walcott.

Walcott was introduced on the hour mark - in place of the ineffective James Milner - and completely turned the game back in England's favour. We've seen him have this impact from the bench before, most memorably for Arsenal against Barcelona a few seasons ago only for him to disappoint when he was given a start in the game that followed.

Walcott is now almost certain to start against the Ukraine but I have my doubts as to whether he'll be able to produce a similar lung-bursting performance for 90 minutes. Walcott or Milner though... it has to be the Arsenal man.

Another man almost certain to start against Ukraine is suspension-free Wayne Rooney, but who he'll replace is quite a talking point at the moment. Andy Carroll's header showed what kind of threat he can be in England's attack, but Danny Welbeck's performance v Sweden - and that finish of course - arguably deserves to keep him in the starting XI. My hunch is that Hodgson will start Rooney just behind Carroll.

The Three Lions need just a point on Tuesday night and they are effectively 1.33n/a to win or draw as that's the price you can currently get match at in the Group D To Qualify market.

It's make your mind up time for the next four days as the remaining group games on each day kick-off at the same time. All four nations are still in with a chance of qualifying from Group A tonight and I'm desperately hoping (for financial reasons of course) that two of the most entertaining teams of the tournament so far - Russia and Poland - advance.

The Russians should have few problems getting at least a point against Greece and are available to back at 1.13n/a To Qualify, but the other game is far more difficult to call. Poland (2.261/1) must win, whilst any other result will see the Czech Republic (1.97n/a) go through.

Expect some change in the Top Goalscorer market this evening with Alan Dzagoev - currently third favourite at 8.47/1 - back in action. Greece have surprisingly been very poor in defence and Dzagoev is definitely worth a wager. Just a single goal tonight will see his odds reduce dramatically, a brace will probably see him go odds on before Mario Gomez (3.152/1) and Fernando Torres (6.85/1) take to the field in the next few days.

Recommended Bet
Back Alan Dzagoev @ 8.47/1 to be Top Goalscorer

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Harry Redknapp: Quality England must start Rooney and Walcott

I’d play Rooney alongside Welbeck and start Walcott on the right...

Harry’s Recommended Bets
Back England @ 2.221/1
Back England/England @ 3.752/1 for half-time/full-time
Back Wayne Rooney to score

Harry was delighted by England's win against Sweden and he thinks the Three Lions are going great. He tells us what team he would pick for Tuesday's match against the Ukraine and selects his best bets...

Three great goals and three points - what more could you want?

England's win against Sweden was terrific. After an eventful week for me, I really enjoyed watching us and I thought we were superb in attack. Before the tournament, I said organisation in defence was key but, against the Swedes, England showed how threatening they are up front. Every other team at the Euros will have taken note and nobody will fancy playing us.

I was delighted to see Theo Walcott score and Danny Welbeck's finish on the turn was exquisite. But my favourite goal was England's first. Shrewd move from Roy to bring in Andy Carroll. He did his homework, knew the Swedes were vulnerable in the air and the way Carroll rose above Andreas Granqvist to power in his header was devastating. Top cross from Steven Gerrard again too.

So what does Roy do now? With Wayne Rooney available for Tuesday's match against Ukraine, there's no way he can be left out. I'd play him alongside Welbeck, who gives England good movement. We could reap the rewards of the understanding the pair have developed at Manchester United. Wayne is raring to go so I'm backing him to score. With the added threat of Carroll off the bench, England have a scary looking attack.

I'd start Theo on the right. I've always thought he had bags of talent, ever since I gave him his debut at Southampton. I have a lot of time for him as a footballer and a lad. Bringing him on was an excellent, decisive decision from Roy which changed the game. Theo's pace will rattle any defence. France opened the Ukraine up several times and they won't fancy Theo running at them. I'd always start him and I think he has to come in at the expense of James Milner.

Praise too for Scott Parker and Steven Gerrard. Scottie has come of age in the past two seasons. He was terrific for me at Tottenham and has cemented his position in the national side - his job is to break up play and drive us on but what a hit that was against Sweden. Gerrard has had two very good games at the Euros and his cross for Carroll showed what pin-point accuracy he possesses. Frankly, I wouldn't swap England's front six for any at this tournament, including Spain.

I'm not getting carried away. John Terry and Joleon Lescott are very good headers of the ball so it's unusual to see us concede at set-pieces. They're still getting to know each other but I think they're developing a solid platform and Roy will work on tightening up for Tuesday. Ashley Cole has had two great games and, despite his mistakes against Sweden, Glen Johnson is enjoying a good tournament. I'd still rather have our back five than any other. Combine that with our quality attack and it's easy to see that England are going very well.

We'll beat the Ukraine. They'll have their home fans roaring and Andriy Shevchenko will be determined to have a glorious swansong but I'm not impressed. They were lucky to win their first match and France exposed their defensive weaknesses. The hosts need a win whereas we only need a draw. They'll go for it, that will leave them exposed and Theo and Ashley Young could terrorise them on the break. Andriy Pyatov looks dodgy in goal and if we're as rampant as we were against Sweden then we could be ahead at half-time and full-time. Come on England.

Harry's Recommended Bets
Back England @ 2.221/1
Back England/England @ 3.752/1 for half-time/full-time
Back Wayne Rooney to score

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Lee Dixon: Walcott and van Persie to get the better of Dortmund

Champions League / Lee Dixon / 22 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

The pace man and the hitman. Theo Walcott congratulates Robin van Persie after they combine for another goal.

"This should be a pretty tight game between two sides who are probably quite evenly matched at this moment in time but Arsenal’s extra experience of these type of matches in this competition plus home advantage should get them over the line. Draw/Arsenal in the HT/FT market is also worth including in our portfolio of bets for this match."

Red-hot tipster Lee Dixon looks ahed to Arsenal's match against a confident Borussia Dortmund side. The Gunners should win and qualify for the knock-out stages but it won't be easy...

I'll do well to match my tipping effort at the weekend where all four of my recommended bets on Norwich v Arsenal won .

If you'd placed £10 on each you would have returned a profit of £91.50. But the good news is that with a third of the season gone, we've seen enough of this 2011-12 version of Arsenal to know what to expect of them. The key of course, is knowing how to profit from that knowledge.

Match Odds

If Arsenal had beaten Marseille a few weeks back like they should have, they would have been pretty much home and dry as regards making the knock-out stages of the Champions League.

But Arsene Wenger decided that captain, talisman and top scorer (he probably drives the team bus, too) Robin van Persie needed a rest and only gave him half an hour in that match. Without him, the Gunners never really got going and drew 0-0. They can't afford any more slip-ups here and I'd be amazed if RVP doesn't start this one, especially after scoring two more at the weekend (shall I mention I tipped that as well? No? OK).

Borussia Dortmund could be excused for really fancying their chances of causing an upset here and going into the final round of fixtures with it all to play for. After all, they're fresh from beating league leaders Bayern Munich at the weekend.

This should be a pretty tight game between two sides who are probably quite evenly matched at this moment in time but Arsenal's extra experience of these type of matches in this competition plus home advantage should get them over the line. Draw/Arsenal in the HT/FT market is also worth including in our portfolio of bets for this match.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals and Correct Score

In the last 13 matches Arsenal have played in all competitions, only twice has the over 2.5 goals barrier not been broken. Interestingly, those two 'anomalies' occurred against the same team - Marseille, whom Arsenal beat 1-0 in France before that aforementioned goalless draw. So we know that matches between those two produce low-scoring games but also that as a general rule Arsenal's games are high-scoring. That's hardly surprising.

In van Persie they have one of the most in-form strikers in Europe and the team continues to adopt an attack-minded philosophy. At the other end, they remain suspect. The goal they conceded away at Norwich was defending the likes of which I last saw in a school playground. I don't expect the floodgates to open because there's so much at stake in this match but 'overs' is a confident selection and 2-1 would be my idea of the most likely scoreline.

To Score

I'm not going to come up with any new and original ways of explaining why backing Robin van Persie to score is a good bet, other than to say: look at his scoring record in 2011 and his record in his last seven matches- ten goals no less. Back him again.

Theo Walcott was lively on Saturday and is due a goal, having created plenty of chances in recent weeks for others to score. He's available at [3.3] and looks a solid bet.

2 pts Back Arsenal to win @ [2.16]
1 pt Back Draw/Arsenal @ [6.0]
2 pts Back Arsenal to win 2-1 @ [10.0]
2 pts Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.96]
Back Robin van Persie to score at anytime @ 2.1
Back Theo Walcott to score at anytime @ [3.3]

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