Cheltenham Ante-Post Betting: Who's running in what?

Cheltenham / David Cleary / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

All roads lead to Cheltenham. But which race?

"Currently the shortest-priced horse in the market for the Neptune not entered elsewhere is Batonnier, who got off the mark over hurdles beating another entry here Broadbackbob in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day last month."

David Cleary tries to work out what some of the different Cheltenham markets may look like nearer race day and the key events between now and then.

The two longer distance novice hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival provide an extreme example of a problem common to many of the races at the meeting when trying to find an ante-post option. For although both the Neptune Investments (Baring Bingham) and Albert Bartlett (Spa) have attracted a healthy entry, the vast majority also hold other engagements. Only around a third of the entries in each race has that as its sole novice option, and a few in each are likely to feature among the handicap entries which are not yet out. Also, quite a few of the sole-entry horses are what look like vanity runners as well. In the Neptune there are no more than ten that look serious contenders with just that race as a Cheltenham target, though five of those are trained by Nicky Henderson. It seems likely that one or two of those could go for the EBF Final at Sandown the previous weekend.

The relative strength of the two races will depend a lot on which race the connections of Fingal Bay and Boston Bob target. They are the stand-out staying novices on either side of the Irish Sea and were they to go for different races would likely be a short price for their respective event. The pair are unbeaten in seven starts over hurdles between them, showing form well up to the standard required to win at Cheltenham, and though all their runs have been at around two and a half miles both are likely to be at least as effective at three miles.

Currently the shortest-priced horse in the market for the Neptune not entered elsewhere is Batonnier, who got off the mark over hurdles beating another entry here Broadbackbob in the Grade 2 novice on Trials day last month. That form wouldn't be a patch on Fingal Bay's best, but both have potential to progress further. Simonsig and Sous Les Cieux, discussed in the article on the Supreme Novices', would certainly have stronger claims were they to be routed here. Given such uncertainty, it is hard to offer an angle into the Neptune.

The Albert Bartlett looks more fertile ground. While it's possible both Fingal Bay and Boston Bob will turn up here, the percentage call is that both of them won't (Fingal Bay's price on Betfair certainly suggests he's much more likely to run in the Neptune). Also those with just an entry in the Albert Bartlett look a stronger lot than their equivalents in the Neptune.

They include Folsom Blue and Ipsos du Berlais. The former has won his last three starts over hurdles and was an impressive winner at Clonmel last time; he has plenty more to offer, particularly when stepped up to three miles. The same is true of Ipsos du Berlais, who ought to be three from four over hurdles. He was beaten fair and square when third to Boston Bob in a Grade 1 novice at Navan in December but looked short on experience that day and might make more of a race of it another time. The problem with those two, along with Make Your Mark and Sea of Thunder, who are also prominent in the betting ante post, is that they are all in the same ownership. It would be surprising if they all ran. Mount Benbulben, second to Boston Bob at Navan, has the form to be involved in either this or the Baring Bingham but perhaps not the potential to improve of some of the others mentioned.

The most significant British trial may well prove to be the River Don at Doncaster, over three miles on good ground. The race was steadily run and the first two, Rocky Creek and Gullinbursti did well to pull so far clear. Rocky Creek was a ready winner on just his second start over hurdles and has plenty more to come. Were Boston Bob to go for the Neptune, then the prospect of Ruby Walsh riding Rocky Creek could see his price shorten a fair bit.

These two races are hard to have a firm view on without knowing where Fingal Bay and Boston Bob are going. In contrast to most other Festival races, there is a shortage of significant trials still to come. Rocky Creek is about the price he should be for the Albert Bartlett, though makes some appeal, given the prospect of his shortening in the market. He's currently available on Betfair at [14.0].

Key dates

Deloitte Novice Hurdle, Leopardstown, February 12
Prestige Novices' Hurdle, Haydock, February 18
Next declaration stage, February 21
Sidney Banks Memorial Novices' Hurdle, Huntingdon, February 23
National Spirit Hurdle, Fontwell, February 26

With current prices in mind, Timeform's Adam Brookes believes he's found the value bet in the second-day feature of this year's Cheltenham Festival, the Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase....

Paul Nicholls believes there will be little to choose between old rivals Kauto Star and Long Run as the pair prepare to lock horns for a fifth time in next month's Cheltenham Gold Cup....

Blenheim Brook booked himself a ticket to next month's Cheltenham Festival with a fine performance in the novice chase at Ayr on Monday, the highlight of a treble for trainer Lucinda Russell....

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Who's Got the Power in Poker?

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

This week BLUFF Magazine announced its annual "Power 20" list which catalogues the 20 most influential people in poker. This marks the sixth year the magazine has produced such a list, which tends to include major figures from the business side of poker (both online and live), various media types, some political leaders, as well as a few high-profile professional players.

Howard Lederer sits atop this year's Power 20, thanks primarily to his association with the popular Full Tilt Poker site. And in second sits Isai Scheinberg, founder of PokerStars, an indication of the continued significance of the online game to poker, generally speaking.

The process by which BLUFF has compiled the list has been refined somewhat over the years. While the list has always been referred to as "the most influential people in poker" since it was first introduced in early 2006, there have often been included businesses, television networks, agencies, or other entities as well as individuals. In fact, the new list for 2011 represents the first time in the six years that only people were named.

Each year BLUFF chooses a panel made up of individuals with special insight into the poker industry, including some who end up getting voted onto the lists. Voting usually occurs toward the end of the year, with the list appearing the following January or February. Thus (for example) does the 2011 Power 20 represent what the voters collectively determined to be the 20 most influential people in poker at the end of 2010.

Not surprisingly, the list has provoked a lot of debate already -- kind of a primary purpose, really, for compiling the list in the first place.

Dave "F-Train" Behr, a poker reporter and keeper of the "Riding the F-Train" blog, was among the 101 voters this year. In a recent blog post he describes how his own ballot differed (unsurprisingly) from the final list, with a couple of people he listed relatively highly not appearing at all among the top 20. F-Train also notes how no women appear on the 2011 Power 20, wondering if perhaps a woman has ever made the list. In fact, a quick check of all the Power 20 lists since 2006 reveals that F-Train's hunch was correct -- no woman has ever been included.

Looking back at the BLUFF Power 20 lists from 2006-2011 is an interesting exercise, actually, insofar as doing so partially reveals how "power" in the poker world has evolved over the last six years. Or at least how perceptions of such power have changed, anyway.

Each year a handful of professional players usually appear on the list. For example, Daniel Negreanu has been among the top 10 every year since the list began. Doyle Brunson, who topped the list back in 2006, has also been included among the Power 20 each year since. Phil Hellmuth has also been frequently included, returning again to appear on the 2011 list (in 16th). Meanwhile players like Chris Moneymaker, Johnny Chan, and Chris "Jesus" Ferguson who appeared on the list early on have fallen out of the top 20 in recent years.

Looking over past Power 20s also helps one to trace the consolidation of power in the online poker world over the past six years. In 2006 -- prior to the passage of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act which resulted in several sites pulling out of the American market -- five different online sites appeared among the top 20. This year, as already mentioned, only two sites (PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker) are represented on the list, with their figureheads positioned in those top two spots. Indeed, both PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker have remained part of the BLUFF Power 20 every year since 2006.

On the television side of things, ESPN (or representatives of the network) has been ranked highly every year but one. High Stakes Poker (or GSN) has been included in past years. And the World Poker Tour and/or figures associated with it have been on the list each year since 2006, too.

Speaking of the WPT, its current Executive Tour Director Matt Savage (recently interviewed here) was ranked the 14th most influential person in poker this year, his second straight year in the Power 20. The World Series of Poker, Harrah's, and/or Caesars folks have usually occupied high spots on the list as well. For example, Ty Stewart, current WSOP Executive Director and VP of Caesars Interactive Entertainment was ranked third this year, with Caesars CEO Mitch Garber also in the top ten.

Among the agents and agencies that have been singled out as particularly influential over the years, Brian Balsbaugh of Poker Royalty has appeared nearly every year, climbing into the top five in 2011. Media entities or such as PokerNews, Bluff Media, CardPlayer, and TwoPlusTwo also often have been represented in the top 20, although this year the latter two do not appear.

The Poker Players Alliance and/or those heading it has remained part of the list since 2008. And usually at least one spot in the list is given to U.S. political leaders, with Rep. Barney Frank having dropped out this year, replaced by Senator Harry Reid.

This year a total of 195 different names were submitted by the 101 voters as deserving spots in the top 20, showing just how difficult it is to reach a clear consensus when it comes to indentifying who has the "power" in poker.

Not that big of a surprise, I suppose. Indeed, just think about your average table full of players. Some will likely appear to have more "power" or an edge over others, although a single hand can alter the status quo very quickly. And, of course, everyone's perspective on who has the most power is likely going to be different as well.

Such is necessarily the case when debating who holds the "power" in the poker world, too.

Click here to see the entire list of the 2011 Bluff Power 20.

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