Showing posts with label falling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label falling. Show all posts

July 19, 2011

Summer Jumpers: Hard rain falling on the Rasen

David Cleary RSS / David Cleary / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

David Cleary

"Street Entertainer travelled strongly for most of the way and, had the tempo been more even, he might well have won."

David Cleary considers the impact of the wet weather on the week's jumps action and highlights some runners that will be worth keeping an eye on in future.

Market Rasen's feature meeting of the summer jumping season was the obvious highlight of the week. However, plenty of rain on well-watered ground made for conditions which didn't suit all.

The Summer Plate, for example, saw half the field failing to complete and plenty off the bridle from an early stage of a strongly-run race. The time recorded for the race was significantly slower than a small-field novice handicap over the same distance later in the afternoon. That was won by Nez Rouge, which seems to indicate the leaders went too hard in front, with North Island and Invisible Man (for whom the ground wouldn't have been ideal either) shaping significantly better than the final distances. Both will be of interest again, under more suitable circumstances.

The winner Qulinton was flattered by his margin, the runner-up Logans Run tiring markedly from the last, but he travelled smoothly in blinkers first time and, in hindsight, a significantly higher view could be taken of his win at Worcester earlier in the summer. Qulinton is only seven and has promised this sort of smart effort before, so he may well be a factor wherever he goes next. Buck Mulligan was never on terms in finishing fifth but he travelled well for a long way and he's almost certainly better than his last two runs indicate. He might need to come down a pound or two in the weights but needs keeping an eye on.

The Summer Hurdle was also well run but, in contrast to the Plate, was much more closely fought. The pace played into the hands of those produced late, with none brought later than the winner Viva Colonia. He's been threatening to win a race for a while and although this one was set up for him, his style of running means he's got a chance of keeping ahead of the handicapper a little longer. Our old friend Kylenoe Fairy also made her move late and ran a cracker in second; she's probably near her limit in the handicap but will go well at this level again.

However, of even greater interest is the less-exposed third Street Entertainer, who raced much closer to the pace than the first two. He travelled strongly for most of the way and had the tempo been more even he might well have won - he's very much one to note for a similar event. Rajnagan couldn't maintain his winning run in a much tougher race but the ground might well have gone against him and he is worth another chance. Ixora couldn't add to her run of successes either, but she shaped as if she requires further at this competitive level and shouldn't be discounted in a similar event at two-and-a-half miles or perhaps even further.

The two-and-three-quarter mile handicap hurdle on the Market Rasen card also has a strong look to it, with the winner Westlin' Winds right back to his best on his first start over hurdles for Brian Ellison. The proximity of such in-form rivals as The Strawberry One and Red Not Blue give this race plenty of substance and the form should stand up well, with Westlin' Winds in particular of interest again. Life of A Luso could manage no better than seventh, running over hurdles having missed the cut for the Plate. The ground will have gone against him and he shaped better than the distances indicate - he remains one to be interested in.

Much earlier in the week, competitive events were thin on the ground but one race that should stand up is the handicap hurdle won by Diamond MM at Worcester. The winner seemed to benefit from a more patient ride and with his stable in good form he is likely to go well again. After two wretched efforts American Art, with his tongue tied, ran a much more encouraging race but found the longer distance beyond him. He may yet recapture the form he showed at Bangor in the spring, back around two miles.

While most punters' attention was on the action at Newmarket, David Cleary keep a cool eye on proceedings at the summer jumps meetings. He highlights the ones to follow and the ones to forget about....

David Cleary marks your card for the summer jumps fixtures to come following Perth's recent two day festival and other races of note...

David Cleary outlines the best betting opportunities for the current crop of horses on the summer jumping circuit...


Betfair website

April 21, 2011

2000 Guineas Betting: Rivals to Frankel falling by the wayside

Ante-post RSS / Timeform / 20 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is there any way Frankel can be beaten in the Guineas?

Is there any way Frankel can be beaten in the Guineas?

Strong Suit and Zoffany are the latest names to be added to the list of horses who won't be lining up against Frankel at Newmarket on April 30....

Richard Hannon's Strong Suit, who had been matched at as low as [6.2], was hardly a surprising defection given his disappointing run behind Frankel in the Greenham, while Aidan O'Brien's Zoffany (matched as low as [9.0]), who won last year's Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, also misses out but does hold entries in the King's Stand, St James's Palace and the Golden Jubilee, all at Royal Ascot.

This news has only served to strengthen Frankel's position at the head of the market, with the Greenham winner now trading as short as [1.67]. Jessica Harrington's Pathfork is the current second favourite and can be backed at [7.4], while Aidan O'Brien's Roderic O'Connor is next in at [8.4].

Timeform Ratings for the 2000 Guineas (weight adjusted)

147p FRANKEL
142 DREAM AHEAD
135p PATHFORK
134 CASAMENTO
133p RODERIC O'CONNOR

Timeform try to locate the value for the season-ending showpiece at Sandown this Saturday......

Frankel kept his unbeaten record intact as he made a winning reappearance in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury on Saturday and shortened slightly at the head of the betting for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket....

The Scottish version represents the acceptable face of Nationals; run at a proper course over sensible fences, and it's a much more attractive betting medium as a result. Timeform's Harry Bowles runs the rule over the field for Saturday's feature......


Betfair website