Betting Briefing: Stayers & Future Champions at Newmarket

Weekly Betfair Briefing / Timeform / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Newmarket stages the Cesarewitch on Saturday

"Saturday brings one of the big end-of-season handicaps at Newmarket, this one for stayers, the Cesarewitch. Won last year by Aaim to Prosper, who will carry top-weight if taking part again, this particularly competitive event over two and a quarter miles is a real test of stamina."

Timeform look over the next week's racing, which gets underway with Longchamp's Arc day on Sunday and ends with a high-class card at Newmarket on Saturday....

Sunday October 2
Longchamp's Arc meeting is one of the highlights on the racing calendar, and this year's renewal is no different. Every race there on Sunday carries Group 1 status and it has a stunning line-up of horses including Goldikova, Sarafina, So You Think, Workforce and many more quality performers. Arc weekend is a real treat for racing fans with race after race to get excited about, and after months of looking forward to it, it is finally here.

There's also racing on Sunday on the National Hunt scene at Huntingdon, Kelso and Uttoxeter, whilst Tipperary stages a good-quality mixed-code card in Ireland, where Captain Cee Bee and Luska Lad feature in a Grade 2 hurdle and the David Marnane-trained Dandy Boy makes his seasonal reappearance in the Group 3 Concorde Stakes.

Monday October 3
Monday doesn't quite scale the heights of the previous day but you can't have a Group 1 card every day of the week, so Pontefract, Warwick and Windsor it is. Arguably the most interesting race of the day is Pontefract's conditions event over two miles and a furlong. Likely participants include Ajaan, winner of the race last year, the Roger Varian-trained Pekan Star, who is stepping markedly up in trip, and Fire Fighter, who will be seeking a hat-trick of wins.

Tuesday October 4
Flat action on Tuesday at Catterick and Leicester, and on all-weather at Southwell. Catterick host what could develop into a competitive nursery over seven furlongs, whilst Leicester stage an interesting conditions event for two year-olds and a pair of maidens that could consist of large fields, as is the trend at this time of year. We also have National Hunt action over in Ireland, once again courtesy of Tipperary.

Wednesday October 5
The busiest day of the week so far on Wednesday, with racing on the flat at Nottingham and in Ireland at Navan, National Hunt racing at Ludlow and Towcester, before we head to Kempton for an evening of floodlit racing. Memorabilia, a fair performer on the flat and second on his hurdling debut on Friday, is entered again at Ludlow on Wednesday and could build on that hurdling experience. Nottingham's card features three maidens out of six races, with a number of powerful stables holding entries.

Thursday October 6
Just the two flat meetings on Thursday, at Ayr in the afternoon and Wolverhampton in the evening. Jumps racing is more the order of the day, with action at Exeter, Worcester and over in Ireland at Tramore. Interestingly, trainer Charlie Longsdon is 2-2 with his National Hunt flat runners at Worcester in the 2011-12 season, and holds three entries in their final event on Thursday.

Friday October 7
Friday takes us to York, Carlisle and Newton Abbot in the afternoon, with the former staging the only flat card. York's feature event on a seven race card is a class 2 handicap over a mile, whilst Newton Abbot host a valuable handicap hurdle over two miles and six furlongs. We again sample the delights of Wolverhampton in the evening, for a seven race card at the same time as Dundalk host a card headed by a very valuable listed event over seven furlongs.

Saturday October 8
Saturday brings one of the big end-of-season handicaps at Newmarket, this one for stayers, the Cesarewitch. Won last year by Aaim to Prosper, who will carry top-weight if taking part again, this particularly competitive event over two and a quarter miles is a real test of stamina. Other entries of note include the Roger Charlton-trained Keys, an impressive winner on two occasions this season, Sir Mark Prescott's Tuscan Gold, antepost favourite at [10.0], and Nicky Henderson's Veiled, who took the Ascot Stakes on her most recent outing.

It's also 'Future Champions' day on Newmarket's revamped Cesarewitch card, and the two big juvenile races to take note of are the Group 1 Middle Park and the Dewhurst, over six and seven furlongs respectively. A two year-old can dramatically enhance his claims to next year's classics in either of these races, so horses like Ektihaam, Camelot and Daddy Long Legs will be looking for success here.

Elsewhere on Saturday, York stages a solid looking card featuring the listed Rockingham Stakes over six furlongs, whilst Chepstow and Hexham hold National Hunt cards, as does Fairyhouse in Ireland. We visit Wolverhampton for the third evening in a row for another seven race card.

SPECIAL OFFER - Timeform mid-week (Mon-Fri) race cards are just £3. That's a saving of 40%. Visit timeform.com to get the best guide to the day's racing.

Timeform look ahead to the coming week, featuring mid-week action from Ayr, Salisbury and Warwick, before we head to Newmarket and Ascot on Saturday for valuable sales races and pattern race action......

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, featuring good mid-week cards at Goodwood and Newmarket, before a fascinating order of play on Saturday including a quality card at HQ......

Timeform look ahead to next week's racing, which features interesting mid-week cards from Sandown and Yarmouth, and culminates in Ayr's Gold Cup meeting......

Betfair website

Is The Future of Absolute Poker and UB in Jeopardy?

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 06 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ever since "Black Friday" there have been dozens of rumours circulating around the various poker forums and newsgroups, most regarding if any of the three sites involved in the indictments by the American Department of Justice (DoJ) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) would be able to continue their operations without being able to service American customers.

Most of these rumours were immediately quashed as both PokerStars and Full Tilt Poker both reached an agreement with the DoJ and FBI to release the seized funds so they could reimburse their, now banned, American customers. According to reports PokerStars has begun processing withdrawals from American players but Full Tilt has run into problems finding a payment processors but their representatives have said they are looking at solving this problem in the near future.

Players who had money on these two sites are quite confident they will receive their bankrolls back but that confidence is not shared by customers of Absolute Poker and its sister site UB.com, formerly Ultimate Bet, who appear to be in real financial difficulties at present after seeing their traffic plummet by almost 80% since "Black Friday." Although these two sites on the Cereus Network are allowing Americans to play for real money, they are not allowing any financial transactions whatsoever and have even severely limited the withdrawals for non-American customers too.

An email from Madeira Fjord of Norway ,which represents shareholders in the poker sites' parent company, Blanca Games Inc., appeared on the TwoPlusTwo forums showing that they planned to file for bankruptcy protection due to having "no prospects for any cash flow for the foreseeable future." The full email is show below:

Dear xxxx Shareholder,

Since the last meeting of shareholders, there have been a number of developments that affect our Company.

Most importantly, Blanca Gaming has provided notice to our subsidiary Avoine that it is currently unable to make any payments toward its debt obligations. Additionally, Blanca has further advised that there will be no future payments.

Over the past 60 days, the Company has accumulated current debts in excess of $250,000 which are increasing at $100,000+ per month. These obligations are primarily legal and professional fees in Norway.

With no cash on hand and no prospects for any cash flow for the foreseeable future, the Board of Directors is required by Norwegian law to enter the bankruptcy process. The Oslo court will appoint a Receiver who will review the affairs of the Company including the assets, liabilities, and its recent transactions. After a full assessment, the Receiver will make a determination how to enforce any applicable rights, obligations, and obtain the maximum value for its assets in the best interest of the Company.

As the Receiver is a court appointed 3rd party, we can be assured that the Receiver will evaluate all relevant options including any applicable soliciting proposals from interested parties related to the assets of the Company. Funds accumulated through the Receivers' efforts will be disbursed according to Norwegian law.

As of the date of the filing, the Board of Directors is relieved of duty, and all future matters are in the sole control of the Receiver.

Sincerely,
Madeira Fjord, AS Board of Directors

More correspondence appeared on TwoPlusTwo in the form of a memo that was informing Absolute Poker and UB.com's staff that there were going to be wide-scale redundancies at their Costa Rican headquarters, with 95% of the current workforce believed to be now out of work with immediate effect. The initial email and then the memo combined seemed to cause panic in even the most high profile of players, including Isaac Haxton, fearing the worst, was offering to sell the $300,000 in his poker account for as little as $0.20 in the dollar. Haxton does not seem to have much luck with poker legislation as he fell victim when Neteller closed their doors to American customers back when the UIGEA became law in 2006. Then Haxton had over $1,000,000 tied up, thankfully he received all of his money back but whether he gets this money back from Absolute Poker or UB.com remains to be seen.

The parent company of Absolute Poker and UB.com, Blanca Games Inc., were more than aware of the furore being caused and late yesterday afternoon they released an official statement commenting on the downsizing of operations and if Absolute Poker or UB.com were going to be declared bankrupt.

The statement reads as follows:

As previously stated, Absolute Poker and UB ceased their U.S.-facing operations due to recent legal developments in the United States. The company is currently restructuring and is focusing its resources on consolidating its non-U.S., rest-of-the-world operation and software business. In order to have a more efficient and successful future business, an immediate need to downsize and streamline operations significantly at both online poker rooms has been required. Absolute Poker and UB continue to operate their non-U.S.-facing business.

This decision comes after considerable review and analysis of the impact that 'Black Friday' has had on the business as a whole. The workforce has been liquidated, and the process of rehiring approximately 20% of staff in key positions has commenced. All affected employees have been informed of this necessary restructure.

A company spokesperson said: "We regret that we have been compelled to take these actions. We have worked tirelessly to create a truly amazing company that is filled with extraordinary people. We have always been and still remain fully committed to our employees and players. At the same time, we are confident that this restructuring will strengthen the company and its future."

The Company spokesperson also addressed erroneous reports that Blanca has filed for bankruptcy. The apparent confusion over this issue stems from the fact that Blanca recently informed a debt holder, Madeira Fjord, that it was terminating debt payments to, and its relationship with them. As a result, Madeira Fjord apparently filed a notice of bankruptcy in Norway. This notice has no negative impact upon Blanca, the operating company, or its brands. As stated previously, Absolute Poker and UB continue to operate their non-U.S. facing business around the world.

For non-U.S. players, Absolute Poker and UB have increased their maximum withdrawal limits to $1000 for Visa withdrawals and $500 for all other methods. The number of transactions being processed per day has been significantly increased as well. Players are still restricted to one transaction per week, but we are working to return non-U.S. withdrawals to
normal service levels as quickly as possible.

As confirmed earlier this week, the company's legal counsel is in continuing discussions this week with the U.S. Attorney's office to formalize an agreement that would facilitate the return of funds to U.S. Players.

Whether or not Absolute Poker or UB.com can recover from this latest in a long line of crisis and negative publicity remains to be seen but at present it looks like their customers are voting with their feet and leaving the sites in their droves. According to PokerScout.com traffic on the Cereus Network (the network created and shared by the two sites in question) has an average of just 540 cash game players at its tables over a 24 hour period, down from more than 2,000 just a few weeks ago. This means that the network as gone from being one of the top ten most popular to play on down to a very disappointing 27th.

The effects of "Black Friday" do not effect customers of Betfair Poker, simply because Betfair have never accepted American customers and the fact that 100% of customers funds are safe, secure and kept separate from operational funds. Betfair Poker is one of the safest online poker sites available to non-US customers and will always be that way.

This week the Federated Sports + Gaming league made a couple of announcements regarding the launch of its professional poker league, the first event for which is scheduled to take place at the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas in...

British poker pro Rupert Elder woke up this morning with an extra €930,000 in his back pocket after winning the penultimate European Poker Tour event of Season 7 in San Remo, Italy. He defeated Max Heinzelmann heads up to resign...

The World Poker Tour visited Florida for the first time ever and hosted the WPT Seminole Hard Rock Showdown, a $9,600+$400 Main Event that was the only US-based stop where 18-20 year olds ere allowed to play. The decision to...

Betfair website

Simon Rowlands: Punters need to be considered in racing's future

Simon Rowlands / Simon Rowlands / 17 February 2011 / 2 Comments

Imperial Commander: No good reason to think he will be significantly worse as a ten-year-old than he was just a year ago

"The point about such statistics which seems to be lost on many who promulgate them is that “trends” are often relevant only when more specific information is unavailable."

Our blogger argues that those in charge of racing need to reconsider their relationship with the punter, while scrutiny of age stats comes up with some interesting figures for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

After much posturing, rhetoric and deliberation, the Levy which horseracing in the UK needs to run its affairs in 2011/12 has been finalised. That is the end of the story in many respects, but some related matters still seem very far from clear.

It must be wondered how racing's rulers can square a settlement of £73.7m to £80.8m with their oft-stated belief that only a minimum of £130m would be "reasonable". It must also be wondered how one of the chief architects of that case, Paul Roy, can continue to cling to his position like racing's version of Hosni Mubarak, seemingly convinced that he is the answer not the problem.

Roy would probably be a fan of Michelangelo's quote: "The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark." That mindset certainly seems to have informed his part in the negotiation process which broke down and led to the Levy settlement having to be referred to government.

But if "aiming too high" involves being quixotic in the extreme it is likely to do more harm than good, to both racing's reputation and to Roy's in this instance. It will be difficult in future to tell whether the man at the top of racing is being serious or is merely dissembling.

If Roy stays, one of his responsibilities may be to decide what becomes of the money that "Racing" gets from the imminent sale of the Tote. This may be a much bigger, and potentially divisive, issue than many realise. Roy has made it clear that he sees "Racing" as essentially a faction of owners, trainers, racecourses and breeders. No room for punters there.

It should also be remembered that "Racing" saw fit to plug a hole in the BHA pension scheme to the tune of £9.4m as recently as in 2008. What's to say that "Racing's money" from the sale of the Tote won't go the same sort of way?

Fortunately, not all of those at High Holborn come across as misguided or untrustworthy. Speaking with remarkable vision as well as candour, the BHA's Head of Communications, Paul Struthers, suggested on Twitter "...some sort of punters' charter..." and a future in which "...racing does not benefit solely through punters losing..." The Guardian's Greg Wood weighed in with a plea that "...owners need to be seen as customers, not dictators...punters are customers too..."

Amen to that. Is it too much to ask that those in charge of "Racing" - whatever that might be - at the very least take the time to consider some of the wise words that they have so far ignored?

...

Satire can be a powerful weapon in the writer's arsenal, but you need to be careful where you point it if you are to avoid shooting yourself, or those on your side, in the foot. I was reminded of this by reading Peter Thomas' column in the Racing Post this week.

Essentially, Thomas used "stats" to show that NO horse could win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, other than, possibly, Imperial Commander. But that was only if you ignored some of the stats.
This might have made for uncomfortable reading for some of those at his paper who have placed much store by the kind of approach, involving consideration of just winners and crude filtering, that Thomas was lampooning.

For those interested, the results of the Cheltenham Gold Cup this century do imply the possibility of some sort of age bias, though even the more sophisticated approach I described in my previous blog runs into the problem of small samples.

The percentage of rivals beaten by age for the last 10 Cheltenham Gold Cups (with fallers etc stripped out and pulled-ups treated as joint-last for this purpose) are as follows: 6yo 53.3% (1 case); 7yo 54.3% (20); 8yo 55.9% (39); 9yo 55.2% (32); 10yo 45.7% (28); 11yo 28.0% (13); 12yo 39.1% (3); 13yo 27.8% (2).

Make of that what you will. The point about such statistics which seems to be lost on many who promulgate them is that "trends" are often relevant only when more specific information is unavailable. Long Run won't suddenly become incapable of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup as a six-year-old despite having been able to win The King George VI Chase as one. And there is no good reason to think that the lightly-raced Imperial Commander will be significantly worse as a ten-year-old than he was just a year ago.

As another Twitterer said recently: "just find the best horse, best suited to the race, at the best odds". He may have had a point.

Our blogger argues that those in charge of racing need to reconsider their relationship with the punter, while scrutiny of age stats comes up with some interesting figures for the Cheltenham Gold Cup....

Our resident blogger Simon Rowlands points out the shortcomings of some types of conventional trends analysis......

Menorah and Hurricane Fly look vulnerable, while Lingfield stewards let us all down......

Betfair website