Super Bowl 
/ Andy Richmond / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Green Bay have the momentum to edge what should be a very tight contest
"Green Bay have been the better starters throughout the post-season and have not trailed by more than seven points at any time in any of their 19 games. For two outdoor, cold-weather teams, the Packers also appear better suited by playing indoors, that Georgia Dome dismantling of Atlanta being fresh in the memory."
BB's American Football expert Andy Richmond analyses the big one and predicts a defensive classic
Super Bowl XLV
Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday February 6
Live on SKY Sports 1 & HD1 22:00 - KO 23:25
Match odds: Green Bay [1.73], Pittsburgh [2.34]
Between them they have played 37 games to get here, but all of those past contests pale into insignificance alongside this game - Super Bowl XLV is here and being played between two of the most-stored franchises in the NFL, with both having claims to replace the host team (Dallas Cowboys) as "America's Team"
Both have big game pedigree - the Pittsburgh Steelers looking to extend their record to seven Super Bowls, against a Green Bay Packers team seeking their fourth. Two franchises with history, passionate fans and a track record in the biggest game.
Many of the newslines within the game will be looking to draw a comparison between the two quarterbacks - Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) and that's fair enough. Rodgers in particular has had a career defining season and is on the verge of joining the small band of elite quarterbacks, you could argue that his opposite number is already within that band. Putting aside off-field distractions and an early season ban Roethlisberger has something, or rather two things, that Rodgers doesn't - two Super Bowl rings and a vast amount of big-game experience.
But while these two star men will obviously play key parts in Sunday's game and there will be plenty of focus on their leadership of two potent offences, let's not forget that the "other" side of the ball played a significant part in getting both sides this far. Defence is what got the Steelers and Packers to Dallas. Both were ranked in the top five in the league this regular season in points allowed, yards allowed, interceptions and sacks. Pittsburgh held their opponents to an NFL-low 14.5 points per game in the regular season and allowed just 62.8 yards per game on the ground - an amazing 27.3 yards less than the next-best team. Despite those numbers, it was a player from its backfield that walked away with defensive player of the year honours - Troy Polamalu and he is vital to the Steelers efforts both emotionally and physically.
Equally important in the Green Bay defence is Clay Matthews who challenged Polamalu for those defensive honours and was the lynchpin of the Packers defence that finished second in the league in points and fifth in yards allowed. So for all the capabilities that these two have in lighting up the scoreboard there are two ultra-strong defences that are out to stop them.
So what are the keys to winning the game and are there any weaknesses in the teams?
The Packers must learn lessons from the last time these two met - that game became a shoot-out, which resulted in a 37-36 Steelers win - the teams combined for 973 total yards, 886 passing yards and more thrills than any 2009 regular-season game. But there are differences this time and much as the neutrals would love to see another game like that it really shouldn't happen this time.
The Packers will concentrate on eliminating the Steelers deep-ball threat via the speedy Mike Wallace and also need to work on the bunch passing formations that Pittsburgh love to use to get TE Heath Miller available in short yardage passing situations. Miller's match-up with Packers linebacker Desmond Bishop is one of the keys to the game, previously Green Bay have struggled against tight-ends but have contained Brent Celek, Anthony Gonzalez and Greg Olsen very well during the play-offs.
They must also be consistent with their pressure on Roethlisberger - defensive co-ordinator Dom Capers will need to attack what is now a weakened offensive line without rookie Pro Bowl centre Maurkice Pouncey to injury. That injury could also hurt the Steelers running game as Pouncey is essential to their success on the ground, opening holes for Rashard Mendenhall - the Steelers also use Mendenhall for setting up their passing game, so a no go for Pouncey is a massive loss.
The Steelers will also want to bring pressure on Rodgers, but the Packers have done a good job of detecting the blitz of late and he was particularly impressive in dismantling the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. If there is one player that he will be focusing on in the Steelers secondary it will be often-burned Bryant McFadden. If the Packers can get premier receiver Greg Jennings one-on-one with McFadden we may see one or two very big plays.
Green Bay have been the better starters throughout the post-season and have not trailed by more than seven points at any time in any of their 19 games. For two outdoor, cold-weather teams, the Packers also appear better suited by playing indoors, that Georgia Dome dismantling of Atlanta being fresh in the memory.
This has the potential to be another close contest and when you break the sides down there is very little between them. Yes, the Steelers have the experience but the Packers have momentum, having been in sudden death mode for at least the last five games, and they can emulate previous road warriors who won the Super Bowl - the 2006 Steelers and the 2008 Giants - and become the first NFC sixth seed to take the Lombardi Trophy named after their iconic former Head Coach.
Recommended Bets:
Back Green Bay Packers - 2.5 @ 1.89 or better to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers
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