Opta Big Match Stats: Man United set to regain top spot

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sir Alex Ferguson has had the beating of Mancini in the Premier League

"Manchester United have won five and lost none of the last six Premier League games against their city rivals."

Michael Lintorn has examined the Opta evidence to judge what bets to place on the Manchester derby, from which Chelsea may emerge as the true victors...

Manchester United have won five and lost none of the last six Premier League games against their city rivals
Given that each of those clashes took place in the aftermath of Manchester City's landscape-altering takeover, this is a hugely impressive record for Sir Alex Ferguson's side to boast. Coupled with their remarkable home form, which Opta reveal reads 19 straight league victories at Old Trafford, the hint is that the chance to back Manchester United at odds greater than evens is one not to be rejected.

There have been five 90th minute or later goals scored in the last eight matches in all competitions between the rivals, three of them to win the match for Manchester United
This stat could prove invaluable for in-play bettors, but it is also useful as an indicator to expect more goals in the second half than the first. A glance at the archives shows that such a bet would have been successful in five of the last six derbies, while the other ended goalless. In addition, there has been more action after the break in seven of Manchester City's eight league games to date, with 25 of the 33 goals in those fixtures scored in the second period.

None of the eight previous teams to have netted more than 20 goals after eight games in a Premier League campaign have gone on to win the title - both these sides have exceeded the 20-goal mark
Okay, so this Opta pearl doesn't relate to the outcome of Sunday's match, but it offers a fascinating insight into the oft-dismissed concept of peaking too soon. Chelsea, who came a Fernando Torres sitter at Old Trafford away from breaching the barrier themselves, are just three points off the pace and, provided they justify their odds of [1.4] to triumph at QPR, certain to close the gap on at least one of the pacesetters on Sunday. Is this consequently a good time to back the Blues for the title?

Recommended Bets:
Manchester United to win @ [2.14]
The second half to feature the most goals @ [2.2]
Chelsea to win the Premier League @ [4.2]

Click here to read even more from Opta about this encounter

Matchday nine closes with a west London derby, but is unlikely to finish in a shock home win, judging by these stats......

The outlook is bleak for Blackburn ahead of this one, given their disappointing recent record against Tottenham and poor start to the season......

The stakes have rarely been higher in the Manchester derby, with top spot in the Premier League up for grabs. These Opta trends indicate that a late decider is likely......

Betfair website

Lee Dixon: Goals on the menu as have-a-go heroes clash

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Steven Gerrard is back and can score for the second game in a row

"Expect Norwich to contribute their share of goals - a point underlined by Opta who tell us the following: 'Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Premier League games and in both matches the opposition was reduced to 10 men.'"

Liverpool and Norwich are no shrinking violets, says Lee Dixon who thinks Saturday evening could bring goals at both ends of the Anfield pitch

Liverpool v Norwich, Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN
I have been quietly impressed with Norwich in their first season back in the top flight. They are always up for a go at the opposition and have scored in all but two Premier League games, and one of those was against Manchester United.

That suggests they might well score at Anfield and I think we could be in for an entertaining game. But while I don't expect this to be a cakewalk for Liverpool, they should have enough to pick up another three points in what is turning into a promising season for them.

Match Odds - Liverpool [1.32], Norwich [13.0], Draw [5.7]
At [1.32] I'm not going to put Liverpool up as a recommended bet, regardless of whether I think they'll win or not. As it stands I do believe victory will be theirs, but with Norwich capable of scoring I don't think this will be straightforward enough to invest your money at such a short price.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Having established that I'm expecting action I'm going to push the boat out here and will go over 3.5 at [2.76], rather than the more conservative 2.5 option. As I state above, expect Norwich to contribute their share - a point underlined by Opta who tell us the following: 'Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Premier League games and in both matches the opposition was reduced to 10 men.'

Penalty Taken?
The Canaries may be goalscorers but they give plenty of chances to the opposition too, with seven goals conceded on the road, and a league-high five penalties awarded against them. There'll be lots of home possession for them to contend against on Saturday evening and we could well see keeper John Ruddy face another spot kick...

To Score
...and the man despatching that penalty will likely be Steven Gerrard. The Anfield legend was a winning bet for us in this market last week and we're going in again! In a game that should feature goals the Liverpool captain has got to be fancied to get amongst it.

Gerrard has been nurtured back to fitness by Kenny Dalglish and his team, and Liverpool have been doing reasonably well without him. The new signings have helped in that respect and, for once, Gerrard is not expected to carry his team-mates. Nevertheless, he is still hugely influential and will benefit from the good new players around him. Unlike some others, I'm not going to write Gerrard off at just 31 years of age, and fancy him to play a big role for both Liverpool and England in the next few years.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Over 3.5 goals @ [2.76]
1pt Back Yes in Penalty Taken market @ [4.0]
Back 1pt Steven Gerrard To Score @ around [2.8]

Wolves are mired in a five-game losing streak but Saturday's early Premier League kick-off gives them the best opportunity yet to break that horrible run, says Lee Dixon...

There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day....

There's no Champions League football at White Hart Lane this year and as a result slightly less media attention. Away from the spotlight, Harry Redknapp's Spurs keep on improving in the league....

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Premier League Previews: Reebok Stadium to serve up goal-fest

Premier League / Mike Norman / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Expect goals when Bolton host Sunderland this weekend

"Don’t look for any other bets in the Bolton v Sunderland fixture, the stats suggest that Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven."

There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day.

Aston Villa v West Brom, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [2.1], West Brom [4.2], The Draw [3.4]

On the plus side new Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish has overseen just one defeat in the league this season, on the negative side Villa have won just 25% of their league games under their controversially-appointed new boss. Put simply, a lot of Villa fans are still angered that ex-Birmingham manager McLeish has been put in charge and only a Midlands derby victory over West Brom will temporarily appease their disappointment.

The Baggies have also won just a quarter of their league games this term and Roy Hodgson's men face a difficult task in trying to improve that ratio in this encounter. As the Opta stats show, Albion have won just one of their 12 Midlands derbies away from home whilst Villa have lost just one of their 15 home derbies.

In addition, you have to go back nearly 30 years to find the last time West Brom won at Villa Park. A home win has to be the selection then, especially as the team news suggests they'll be at full strength, but perhaps the Goals markets offer the best opportunity to profit from this game.

Opta show that eight of the last nine meetings between these two have resulted in both teams getting on the score sheet, whilst six of those encounters finished with at least three goals being scored. Both teams to Score is available to back at [1.82], whilst the Over 2.5 Goals option looks generously priced at [2.1].

Bolton v Sunderland, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Bolton [2.26], Sunderland [3.7], The Draw [3.4]

Bolton ended a miserable run of form (six league defeats in a row) when they beat Wigan at the DW Stadium last week and now their task is to halt a horrible home run which has seen them lose six consecutive home games stretching back to last season. Alarmingly, despite some top clubs visiting the Reebok, the Trotters have conceded a staggering 15 goals in their four home defeats this term.

So perhaps the last thing Owen Coyle needs right now is a home tie against a side - Sunderland - that they have lost to on the last four occasions. The Black Cats don't have the best away record in the division, but they did beat Bolton at the Reebok at the end of last season and they will be confident of doing the same again.

Entertainment is usually guaranteed when Bolton take to the field, as Opta point out, the Trotters have the fourth best scoring record in the division as well as the worst defensive record. In fact, a total of 36 goals have been scored in the eight league games involving Bolton this season, and every one of those eight games has produced Over 2.5 Goals. Incredibly then, Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [2.0] here. Am I missing something? Seemingly not as Opta also point out that Sunderland's last five Premier League games have also resulted in at least three goals being scored.

Don't look for any other bets in this fixture, the stats suggest Over 2.5 Goals should be available to back at around [1.6], so the fact that we can lump on at [2.0] is a gift from football heaven.

Newcastle v Wigan, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Newcastle [1.6], Wigan [7.2], The Draw [4.1]

Odds of just [1.6] for a Newcastle victory, fans talking about an excellent team spirit, Mike Ashley not receiving criticism. Is this the same Newcastle that we all know and love? If the Magpies carry on the way they are going Ashley will be granted freedom of the city; they're a fickle bunch up there I can tell you.

On a serious note it's enjoyable to see Newcastle doing so well for a club that has had so much upheaval in recent years, and more importantly, hasn't spent much money this season. Contrast that to neighbours Sunderland who have spent twice as much this term and are languishing at the wrong end of the table. Early days and all that I know.

As far as this game goes I'm not prepared to back Newcastle to win at [1.6]; they may well do so, and I hope they do, but I don't believe Wigan are as bad as their league position suggests and this could be a tight game. Opta point out that Alan Pardew's men have the joint best defensive record in the division this term, and the fact that the Latics have scored just three goals in their last six league away games suggests to me that a Newcastle Clean Sheet is worth a punt at [2.3].

Opta stats also show that since 2005, six of the 11 meetings between Newcastle and Wigan have resulted in a scoreline of just 1-0. This persuade me to have a wager on the Under 1.5 Goals option at a generous looking [4.2].

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Bolton v Sunderland
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.1] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Both teams to Score @ [1.82] in Aston Villa v West Brom
Back Yes to Newcastle Clean Sheet @ [2.3] v Wigan
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ [4.2] in Newcastle v Wigan

Wolves are mired in a five-game losing streak but Saturday's early Premier League kick-off gives them the best opportunity yet to break that horrible run, says Lee Dixon...

There's no Champions League football at White Hart Lane this year and as a result slightly less media attention. Away from the spotlight, Harry Redknapp's Spurs keep on improving in the league....

Ahead of the Manchester derby on Sunday, City and United fans are being encouraged to vent their frustrations and trash their Carlos Tevez shirts in exchange for brand new ones....

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Lee Dixon: Lucky number six for Mick McCarthy's Wolves

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mick McCarthy will have his Wolves team primed for three precious points

"I really think this is Wolves’ to lose and they will get the three points they so desire."

Wolves are mired in a five-game losing streak but Saturday's early Premier League kick-off gives them the best opportunity yet to break that horrible run, says Lee Dixon

Wolves v Swansea, Saturday 12:45, live on Sky Sports 2
This may sound ridiculous but if Wolves had only defended better and taken their chances against West Brom they would have won the game. What I mean is that if they could cut out the silly errors at the back and be a touch sharper in front of goal the three points could, probably should, have belonged to Mick McCarthy's men.

You could pretty much say the same about any losing side but I thought there was actually a lot to like about the Wolves display in the Black Country derby. We watched the match live in the Match of the Day studio and I think McCarthy will have taken the positives from it and will be priming his boys to break their five game losing streak. And you know what? They should do it.

Match Odds - Wolves [2.06], Swansea [4.3], Draw [3.5]
It's an old cliche but a week really is a long time in football. You live from game to game and, if you are losing, those games just seem to come around ever quicker. It's worrying psychologically to lose five on the trot and Wolves will be primed to stop the rot here.

It's not just a big game for Wolves though. Swansea are 13th, two points off the bottom three, and a win for them would be massive. I suspect that Brendan Rogers' boys would be happy just to pick up their first away point of the campaign. But I really think this is Wolves' to lose and they will get the three points they so desire.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Wolves' problem last year was a tendency to give up some awful goals through defensive errors. I thought the arrival of Roger Johnson would sort that out, but they are still giving away bad goals through bad mistakes and that must be frustrating for Mick, being an ex-central defender himself.

Then again, opponents don't come much better than Swansea when you're looking for a home win. With just two goals scored, 12 conceded, and no points gained this is an ideal opportunity for Wanderers to cut out the blunders at the back and register a win. I think a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline is likely here and will be backing under 2.5 goals at [1.86].

Half-time/Full-time
In keeping with the expected low-scoring nature of the game I will try for bigger odds by backing draw/Wolves in the HT/FT market at odds of around 5.8.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Wolves to win @ 2.06
2pts Back Under 2.5 goals @ [1.86]
1pt Back draw/Wolves HT/FT @ [5.8]

There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day....

There's no Champions League football at White Hart Lane this year and as a result slightly less media attention. Away from the spotlight, Harry Redknapp's Spurs keep on improving in the league....

Ahead of the Manchester derby on Sunday, City and United fans are being encouraged to vent their frustrations and trash their Carlos Tevez shirts in exchange for brand new ones....

Betfair website

Wrong Trains and Pokemon

Pud's Poker Progress / Matthew Pitt / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

I polished off my other three cans of ale whilst some fat bird ate the entire menu of a chinese restaurant and then washed it down with a diet coke. It does not work like that love!

Hello boys and girls! I have been back in Blighty for almost a week now and it has just dawned on me that I have not written anything about my ridiculous journey back home from the World Series of Poker Europe so here it is.

Working at the WSOPE was great fun but it was also very hard work. It would not have been too bad had I not had to do my "normal" work too whilst I was there but at least I have work so I should not be moaning. Some people say that reporting on poker tournaments is not "real work" because it is also my hobby and I really enjoy it. This is true to some degree but try being awake for 18-19 hours a day for an entire week and see how easy it is then. Of course there are much worse jobs out there but trust me when I tell you my fellow tournament bloggers and I work damned hard when on the circuit.

I covered Day 1a of the Main Event and that did not get finished until about 0100 in the morning so by the time I had chilled out a bit in my room and chatted to Lee Davy about a project he is working on, it was gone three in the morning before I dropped off to the land of nod, so when I was woken up by my aptly named wake-up call at 0845 I was hardly full of the joys of spring, though a big fat breakfast soon sorted that out.

PokerNews had booked three of us a taxi to the airport and it went without a hitch, in fact the entire journey back to the UK went without a hitch, though the €6.80 beer in the airport stung a little. Who would have thought, a €6.80 lager tastes exactly like one that costs £2.40 in the UK. Anyway, I arrived back in Manchester, picked up my suitcase (which made it this time and was the first off the carousel) and headed off to get my train. Unfortunately for me the next train was not for over an hour so I sat and read a poker magazine on the station, had one of the cans of Kronenberg I had bought (four cans for £4.50) and listened to my iPod. The train then arrived at the platform, was cleaned and I jumped aboard and claimed a seat with a table.

However, unbeknown to me this was a different train and they failed to change the TV screens! Thankfully I realised when we stopped at Manchester Victoria it said "next stop Scunthorpe." I jumped off the train and ran towards a guard who first laughed in my face but then told me the train I was meant to catch was arriving in five minutes time, at the other end of the station of course. So off I run, belly and man boobs bouncing everywhere and when I get there I discover that half of the population of Manchester is wanting this train, I have never seen a platform so full. We all somehow fit on and I managed to force my way into the First Class carriage where at least there was a little more room.

Pikachu

Despite having to stand the entire way home I did have a couple of chuckles to myself, mostly at the expense of some bloke playing a Pokemon game on his Mac. I found it funny there was a character called "IveySaur," which was not based on Phil Ivey but what looked like a knob you would see kids draw on science books! There was another where he was denied entry to some house because his Pikachu was not cute enough and then another where it said "Josh uses old rod," which was the final straw to a belly laugh. Josh you sad, sad gimp.

I polished off my other three cans of ale whilst some fat bird ate the entire menu of a chinese restaurant and then washed it down with a diet coke. It does not work like that love! Anyway, this 70 minute train journey had taken two hours and I was starting to wonder if I had got on the wrong train again but it turns out some little shit had thrown a shopping trolley at the train in front so we were forced to go really slow due to safety regulations. Twelve hours after leaving my hotel room in Cannes I made it back to Dewsbury! I could have driven it much quicker than that!

The great thing is I get to do it all again in a week's time because I am having to travel to Leeds > Amsterdam (wait three hours) > Luxembourg > Taxi to Amneville, I can hardly wait.

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Tonight is my last night in Cannes,a city that is steeped in history, has a vibrant nightlife and is soaked class and sophistication. With it being my last night on French soil I thought why not get into the Cannes...

Lady Luck has been a little unfair on the Pudding household over the past week or so but hopeful it is all about to come to an end and we can get on with a bit of normality....

Time continues to absolutely fly by in the Pudding household and October will seem doubly so as I try to fit in work, poker, travelling, family and chilling out into the 744 hours that the tenth month of the year...

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Wolverhampton Placepot: Friday October 21

Daily Placepots / Joe Szekeres / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wolverhampton is the meeting of choice for Friday's placepot.

"Ryton Runner has to be respected on the basis that he is stepping up in trip and looks open to progression having had just five starts so far."

With juvenile maidens galore at Doncaster and Newbury, and no sign of a banker at Fakenham, Joe Szekeres heads to Wolverhampton in search of easier placepot pickings...

17:45 - Till Dawn is our main hope in the opener given the solid form she has demonstrated throughout the season. Whilst she was a little bit disappointing when sixth at Kempton last time, she was hampered and deserves another chance. Should she fail to pass muster, Ivestar should be able to run to place, having finished second and third on his last two starts at the course, brining a level of consistency that the others cannot offer.

18:20 - Rio Grande is banker material in the second race of the evening, having shown promise on his three racecourse starts so far. Leaving the impression there's more to come despite shaping as if in need of the run after three months off last time, he looks certain to go well with Paul Hanagan taking the ride.

18:50 - Galloping Minster and Cheers are the least exposed of those that go to post for the third race of the evening, with the latter, who caught the eye when finishing second on his handicap debut over course and distance last time and looks open to improvement, making slightly more appeal of the two. That was also her first run on polytrack and she should go close if able to build upon that as expected. Galloping Minster should still be included as insurance, however.

19:20 - Ryton Runner has to be respected on the basis that he is stepping up in trip and looks open to progression having had just five starts so far. He finished third last time at Kempton on his all-weather debut and, given that he is fresher than most at this time of year, he should be able to produce another solid run. Another to consider is In A Nutshell, an interesting runner sent over from Ireland by Charles Byrnes, who cannot be ruled out under Kieren Fallon.

19:50 - Beach Babe is a reluctant banker in the next in order to save lines for the final maiden on the card, but she has run at least respectably on each of her Wolverhampton starts and, therefore, can be trusted to get us through what looks an ordinary handicap. She runs off the same mark as when going close in a similar event just six days ago and, with the three-year-old weight allowance in her favour, she will hopefully be good enough to place.

20:20 - We're going to have to take three in this maiden to ensure we land the prize. The three to side with are With Hindsight (probably above the level of ability required to win an average running of this sort of race), Double Trouble (showed promise last time out when second in a similar event) and Avison (falls into the 'could be anything' category, having had just the one career start so far).

Selections:

17:45 - 3, 11
18:20 - 3
18:50 - 6, 10
19:20 - 11, 12
19:50 - 7
20:20 - 5, 7, 9
24 lines

There's no escaping Brighton, appearing until the bitter end of the Flat season, and the venue for today's placepot perm......

Anyone who can land the placepot on 'two-year-olds day' at Newmarket deserves every penny of what is likely to be a massive dividend, but Adam Brookes is opting for (slightly) easier pickings at Fontwell....

Phil Thompson has a crack at today's Placepot at Lingfield......

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Timeform UK SmartPlays: Friday October 21

Timeform UK SmartPlays / Timeform / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

John Gosden, trainer of today's nap Ryton Runner.

"Trained by John Gosden, Ryton Runner is a well-related son of the great Sadler's Wells who showed significant improvement stepped up to a mile and a half at Kempton last time..."

Three more SmartPlays from the Timeform Free Form site.

Newbury stages the first of their eight-race card at 1:30 and Forest Row can get the day off to a winning start by taking the first division of the six and a half furlong maiden. The son of Cockney Rebel is a half-brother to globe-trotting Group 1 winner Presvis and he made a highly encouraging start to his own career when fifth at the same track in May. Well backed, Forest Row overcame a slow start to stay on with purpose in the closing stages, finishing best of all in a race that race has thrown up a whole host of winners, the best of which third-placedTrumpet Major, who subsequently won the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. The slight step up in trip is sure to suit Clive Cox's charge and he can make light of his five-month absence and take this on the way to better things.

Voodoo Prince was always going to be burdened with the weight of expectation, being the first foal of high-class performer Ouija Board, but he has shaped with promise in four starts to date and is fancied to get back to winning ways in the 16:55 at Doncaster. A winner of a maiden at Haydock on just his second outing, Voodoo Prince ran creditably in a handicap back at the Merseyside venue last time, finishing third to Watercourse. Gelded and given a break since that run in June, Voodoo Prince is one of the least exposed members of the field and open to improvement.

The final selection of the day isn't due to race until 19:20 at Wolverhampton, but he'll be worth waiting for. Trained by John Gosden, Ryton Runner is a well-related son of the great Sadler's Wells who showed significant improvement stepped up to a mile and a half at Kempton last time, finishing third and shaping as if an even stiffer test of stamina would suit. A full brother to two-mile winner Albanov, he looks set to go close off what could prove a lenient BHA rating in time.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Forest Row @ [2.42] in the 13:30 at Newbury
Back Voodoo Prince @ [9.8] in the 16:55 at Doncaster
Back Ryton Runner @ [6.2] in the 19:20 at Wolverhampton

Three more bets from the Timeform Free Form Site on Thursday......

Three more SmartPlays on Wednesday from the Timeform Free Form site......

Two SmartPlays at Exeter and one at Yarmouth this afternoon from the Timeform Free Form Site......

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: The Castelló Masters and the Childrens Miracle Network Hospitals Classic

Golf > The Punter > The Punter's In-Play Blog: The Castelló Masters and the Childrens Miracle Network Hospitals Classic

View Market The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Thomas Aiken – The Punter’s first in-play pick in Spain

“Thomas Aiken was one of those on the shortlist before the off and I felt he was a perfectly fair price at [25.0] as he finished his first round on -3.”

Tom Lewis pulls out with flu and Thomas Aiken putts poorly. Not a great day so far, as Steve adds one of last week's disappointments...

12.00- October 21, 2011

It's not been a great morning in Spain. So much for hearing no more of Tom Lewis' ailments - he's withdrawn with flu! And my first in-running play, Thomas Aiken, has putted very poorly.

The man to beat looks like Alexander Noren, who is in imperious form and could have been even further under par if his putter had behaved better. As I type, he's -9 for the tournament and leading with two to play. He was a disappointing selection for me last week in Portugal but he's back in the groove here. I've scrambled aboard at an average of [5.6], which will look good if Sergio Garcia doesn't go bananas this afternoon.

23.35- October 20, 2011

It's been a fairly standard Thursday really, with some ups and a few more downs. The highlight, by some distance, was the performance of George Coetzee, who ended round one in Spain on -4 and in a tie for fourth, three shots adrift of first round leader Ross McGowan. And the lowlight, by a country mile, was the pathetic first round of Justin Rose. 75 around the Palm Course was a dreadful effort and it leaves him with virtually no chance.

They're still playing in the States but I thought I'd kick the blog off now because I've already had a couple of in-play bets and the first of them, Thomas Aiken, starts his second round early tomorrow, at 7.45. Aiken was one of those on the shortlist before the off and I felt he was a perfectly fair price at [25.0] as he finished his first round on -3.

Of my pre-event bets, other than George, most look lost causes but I haven't completely given up on Tom Lewis yet. He endured a dreadful start but recovered quite well. He's apparently suffering from some sort illness, described on Sky as some kind of neck virus? All very odd really and I wouldn't be surprised if it was something of nothing and we hear no more about it tomorrow. Hopefully he'll be as right as rain and a good score will follow.

The big danger to all has to be Sergio Garcia and I'm kicking myself (albeit gently with slippers on) for not getting him onside. I very nearly backed him a couple of times this morning but my instinct stopped me. I just hope my gut feeling was right.

In Florida, Rose wasn't the only disaster. Both Stephen Ames and Ryan Palmer were equally poor and my other three haven't exactly set the world alight. The best of my selections after round one is Heath Slocum but on -3, he's hardly in the thick of things.

Thanks to breezy conditions, the scoring wasn't as low as I'd expected and the lead is just -6, held by seven players, including world number one and tournament favourite, Luke Donald, one of Dan Geraghty's picks, Gary Woodland, and my first in-running play at the event - Arjun Atwal.

Atwal impressed me immensely when he won the Wyndham Championship last year. He was a pre-event pick at last week's McGladrey Classic and I can't for the life of me see why he's as big as he is at [60.0].

Castelló Masters pre-event selections:

George Coetzee @ [34.0]
Tom Lewis [36.0]
Pablo Larrazabal @ [36.0]
Benjamin Hebert @ [130.0]
James Morrison @ [130.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [200.0]

In-play bet

Thomas Aiken @ [25.0]
Alexander Noren @ [5.6]

Childrens Miracle Network Hospitals Classic selections:

Justin Rose @ [16.5]
Ryan Palmer @ [65.0]
Stephen Ames @ [80.0]
Heath Slocum @ [80.0]
Michael Thompson @ [100.0]
Scott McCarron @ [250.0]

In-play bet

Arjun Atwal @ [60.0]

It's a pair of middling events on either side of the Atlantic but that doesn't make for any lack of betting opportunities and Steve's helped himself to a handful of selections in both...

Well-rested Charl to master the major men...

Steve strikes gold with [160.0] shot Tom Lewis but what has he learnt for next year?...

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Michael Vaughan: Phenomenal Dhoni to lead India to victory again

ODI preview / Michael Vaughan / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Captain's knock. Dhoni's well-paced 35 not out got India over the line in the 3rd ODI.

"If England bat first and get more than 300 they’ll once again go close but the smart money is on India prevailing again at [1.7], against an England side who still can’t come to term with the conditions and don’t seem to learn from their mistakes."

Michael Vaughan is full of praise for the Indian captain and has a few harsh words to say about England's inability to learn from their mistakes. The latter will cost Alastair Cook's men again, as India go 4-0 up.

England came much closer to winning a match than they did in the first couple of ODIs on Thursday but it wasn't quite enough.

Where did they lose the game? Firstly, in the bowling department. India bowled full and straight, whereas England were guilty of bowling short and wide far too often. Those are freebies on these wickets to batsmen of this calibre.

Jonathan Trott played really well to score 98 but when the analysts in the England backroom staff crunched the numbers in the aftermath of the match, they'll have picked up on the fact he only scored one boundary during the last 10 overs. For a batsmen who is well set on a good wicket, that's simply not enough.

And finally, and most worryingly of all, there was the fielding. Dropped catches, missed run-outs, overthrows. You name it, England were guilty of it. Which is all the more remarkable when you consider that just a couple of months ago it was the Indians who were slow and clumsy in the field and England who looked energetic and sharp.

In the end it was left to MS Dhoni to play a typical 'finisher's' role and score the winning runs with another of those wristy drives to the boundary rope. Dhoni is a phenomenal limited-overs player, arguably the best in the business. Not since Australia's Michael Bevan has a batsman been so good at pacing a run chase. He knows how long he has to play himself in, knows when to accelerate and has an instinct for where to score his runs. Dhoni almost always finishes the innings unbeaten.

But at 30 he may decide that he needs to cut back on his workload in the near future. Keeping wicket, batting in the middle order and captaining India in all three formats takes a hell of a lot out of you and he may decide to give up the Test captaincy over the next couple of years, or indeed give up the longest format altogether. We'll have to wait and see but for the time being England have to work out a way of getting him out or else this series is only going one way and that's towards a whitewash.

Can we make a case for England winning the fourth ODI in Mumbai? We said already that their best chance was to post a big score and try to defend it by taking early wickets and hope the pressure of a big run chase got to the batsmen. Well, 298 looked like an imposing total on Thursday but in the end it was a relatively comfortable chase for India, when you consider they still had five wickets in hand. If England bat first and get more than 300 they'll once again go close but the smart money is on India prevailing again at [1.7], against an England side who still can't come to term with the conditions and don't seem to learn from their mistakes.

Alastair Cook's side are terrific on green wickets at home where the ball moves all over the place. But a 5-0 loss here in India a couple of years ago, a 6-1 drubbing against Australia in January this year and losses to Ireland and Bangladesh at the World Cup are all proof they simply can't replicate that form away from England. The first thing the management need to address is the issue of the wickets they prepare back home. If they're going to play on 300+ wickets away, they need to have practice of playing on those on English soil. Get used to hitting more sixes, learn to take wickets when there's no assistance and learn to use spin to reduce the run rate. Until they do that, they're a pretty one-dimensional team.

On the plus side, Kevin Pietersen has scored 46 and 64 in his last two matches and is looking his old confident, aggressive self. A big knock from KP may not be enough to win England the match but at [5.0] he's the stand-out bet to top score for his side.

3 pts Back India to win @ [1.7]
2 pts Back Kevin Pietersen to be England top batsman @ [5.0]

A change of personnel is unlikely to radically change England's fortunes against a side who are getting better and better in this series. The obvious bet is the good bet, says Michael Vaughan....

Ed Hawkins previews the third one-day international at Mohali on Thursday and applies betting rule No 1...

India were vastly superior in the first match and there could be more of the same here unless a couple of England's senior players put in much improved performances, says Michael Vaughan....

Betfair website

Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Doncaster, 14:00

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can filly show the improvement needed to land win and place win?

Today's 80/20 is Inffiraaj in the 14:00 at Doncaster.

This filly ran well on debut when finishing third to Tactfully at Nottingham last month, making up a great deal of ground in the last two furlongs and running in to a place. I think she is open to significant improvement and should go close at a fair price in this interesting maiden. At present she is trading at [6.8] on the exchange.

Will hurdles debut be a winning debut?...

Nick is expecting big things from a colt who ran well on his debut at Newmarket last month.......

Nick explains why he's backing a promising runner in an interesting maiden......

Betfair website

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Hefner a huge price

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Both Cleary's bets go on the Flat

"Hefner has solid each-way claims at a double-figure price."

David Cleary makes the picks today with bets at Doncaster and Newbury

Eight-race cards and large fields are the order of the day at both of this afternoon's Flat meetings, Doncaster and Newbury.

Both cards are top heavy with two-year-old maiden races as well, the first three contests at Doncaster and first four at Newbury all confined to those seeking a first win. There are plenty of well-bred newcomers from good stables in those events, so on the whole they're not appealing from a punting point of view without seeing the runners first, the exception being the 14:55 at Newbury.

There are three newcomers that make some appeal in this, but of those that have run the horse with the strongest form claims is Hefner, both the races in which he's run standing up well to scrutiny. He's also running over what is likely to be his optimum trip, whereas a few of his rivals will want further in due course. He might find a clued-up newcomer too good, but Hefner has solid each-way claims at a double-figure price.

Doncaster has five impossible-looking handicaps to follow the maidens, though it's very tempting to give Jameel another chance in the mile-and-a-quarter event at 16:55. He was a let-down when tipped here early in the month but his earlier form stands up well and he has Frankie Dettori on first time today, an advantage in what has the potential to be a relatively tactical affair. The drop in trip isn't against Jameel either. The main danger may well be New Hampshire, similarly unexposed and on a fair mark for his handicap debut. It's worth having him as a second string.

Recommended Bets
Back Hefner win and place @ [14.0] (win) in the 15.55 at Newbury
Back Jameel and New Hampshire @ [16.0] and [11.0] respectively in the 16.55 at Doncaster

Graham Cunningham offers three to follow at Carlisle today...

Rory Delargy joins Gina Bryce on Timeform Radio to analyse racing at Newmarket, Fontwell and Worcester. His best bets coming at Flat racing's headquarters...

Timeform Radio pundit Will Hayler makes a couple of promising Tuesday afternoon selections......

Betfair website

Rugby World Cup Results: Australia win Bronze

Rugby World Cup / Dan Thomas / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ben McCalman scores what proved to be the winning try for Australia

"Wales will go home with their heads held high after some magnificent performances during the tournament, but few will argue that Australia deserved to win the Bronze Final."

It was another brave performance from Wales, but Australia's class shined through in the second half meaning a last minute try and conversion for Warren Gatland's men was futile....

Wales will go home with their heads held high after some magnificent performances during the tournament, but few will argue that Australia deserved to win the Bronze Final, justifying their pre-match price as favourites [1.68].

In a relatively quiet first half, the Wallabies went 7-0 up courtesy of a Berrick Barnes try (converted by James O'Connor), before James Hook reduced the arrears with a penalty, leaving the half-time deficit at four.

The second half was a livelier affair, with Shane Williams putting the Welsh in the lead early on after showing some nifty football skills, only for two O'Connor penalties and a Barnes drop goal to put Australia in control.

The Wallabies then put the game beyond doubt when Ben McCalman scored a converted try taking the score to 21-11.

However, there was a sting in the tail for those on handicap bets as Leigh Halfpenny went over the line in the 82nd minute and Stephen Jones converted reducing the winning margin to three.

Wales (+5.5) was matched at a high of [11.0] having been [1.77] at kick-off.

Will Greenwood has been bowled over by New Zealand's excellence and believes the men in black will send the host nation into raptures with a long-awaited World Cup final victory...

Welsh hearts were broken this breakfast time as their skipper was sent off and three penalties from the boot of Morgan Parra proved enough as the French march on....

Antipodean rivals are the market leaders as final four are revealed...

Betfair website

Follow The Money: Reelwill ready for another win?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

How will our Fakenham bets fare?

"Reelwill's stable is in fantastic fettle of late and the money suggests a big run."

Today's Follow The Money comes from the cards at Doncaster and Fakenham

We begin with the 14:00 at Doncaster where Running Deer has been the subject of solid support, being backed from [9.32] in to [5.5]. This Hurricane Run-filly improved on her debut run when fourth at Nottingham last month and could well step up again today with progression expected from more racing. Sir Henry Cecil has a fantastic 29% strike rate with his runners at Doncaster when teaming up with jockey Tom Queally.

We move over to Fakenham now for their 16:30 2m Handicap Hurdle and Saute has been on the drift this morning out from [2.32] to [2.94]. This five-year-old gelding has had a summer campaign this year and managed to pick up a couple of handicaps on fast ground. As the weather gets colder and the ground a little softer it could be that we have seen his best. Beaten at a short price last time, he has been given a break and the money suggests he may struggle today.

We stay at Fakenham for our final mover of the day - Reelwill in the 17:05. This grey mare has been backed from [4.5] into [3.4]. Reelwill's sole success came in this race a year ago but since then has been well held in four starts. The win came after a seven month absence and today's race comes after a similarly long absence. The stable is in fantastic fettle of late and the money suggests a big run.

Recommended Bets
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104150950&ex=2&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104163261&ex=2&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=104163263&ex=2&origin=MRL&rfr=3013

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Brighton, Carlisle and Ludlow......

Todays Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Newmarket and Fontwell....

Today's movers come from the meetings at Lingfield, Exeter and Yarmouth......

Betfair website

Malaysian MotoGP Preview: Dani the boy

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Dani Pedrosa is under pressure to secure a race win

"Had he (Marc Marquez) moved up next year, you really got the feeling Pedrosa’s factory ride in 2013 would’ve been under threat. Pedrosa needs to win this weekend. It seems we’re saying that about Dani a lot lately but it’s a fact. At 2.34 he’s good value to finally get it."

Life is rosy in the Casey Stoner garden but this weekend he may just have to allow Dani Pedrosa a bit of the limelight. The Spaniard badly needs a win and it's a decent bet he'll get it.

Five wins in a row at your home Grand Prix, you move into fifth place on the all-time winners list, you wrap up the 2011 World Championship and it's your 26th birthday. Last Sunday, Casey Stoner had quite the day. But the Repsol Honda squad have had little time to celebrate as the bikes are back on track this weekend for the penultimate round in Malaysia.

With the championship now safely wrapped up, Stoner can afford to relax this weekend. The problem for everyone else is that a relaxed Casey Stoner is generally a much faster one. His race pace today was excellent and, despite finishing the session in second, he was a happy and confident world champion. It's not surprising to see him a [1.89] favourite yet again. The interest with Stoner this weekend though could come tomorrow.

A pole position would equal his hero Mick Doohan's tally of eleven in a season. His team-mate Dani Pedrosa was quickest today on the softer tyres that they'll use for qualifying. Stoner himself didn't do a run on the softs but was right on the pace with Pedrosa on race tyres. Stoner isn't one for stats but he's more than aware of his chance to equal Doohan on Saturday and if you're after a Stoner bet, I'd be more inclined to have a look at [2.2] for him to secure pole position.

After his accident at Phillip Island, Jorge Lorenzo will miss this week's GP, and most likely the final round at Valencia as well, which means that, race-wise, we're in for an all Honda battle. Pedrosa and Stoner's race pace was almost identical today and I expect them to battle it out for the win with Pedrosa by far the man with the most to prove this weekend.

Firstly, Stoner took Honda's first 800cc title, a job expected to be done years ago by Pedrosa. Secondly, he's the third Repsol Honda in the pecking order at the moment with the outgoing Andrea Dovizioso just ahead of him in the standings. And thirdly, and this is just a gut feeling from myself, he's got to be secretly happy that fellow Spaniard and Respol rider Marc Marquez has decided to stay in Moto2 for 2012. Had he moved up next year, you really got the feeling Pedrosa's factory ride in 2013 would've been under threat. Pedrosa needs to win this weekend. It seems we're saying that about Dani a lot lately but it's a fact. At 2.34 he's good value to finally get it.

Don't expect Stoner to take it easy though, just because the title's secure. He'll push Pedrosa hard while the rest battle over that final podium spot. I expect that to to be an all- Honda battle between the old sparring partners of Dovizioso and Marco Simoncelli. Simoncelli took the honours in Australia, but Dovi always goes well here and Marco has often struggled in the heat. At around [2.0] I'd be taking Dovi to complete a Repsol Honda whitewash.

The weather could play a big part on Sunday with storms a real possibility, in which case quite literally anything could happen with a half wet, half dry race as we saw in Phillip Island. Either way, it looks like we could have a good battle at the front this weekend, even if the title is already in the books.

Recommended Bets

Back Dani Pedrosa for the win at [2.5]
Back Andrea Dovizioso for the Top 3 at [2.0]

Trent Burton looks ahead to Sunday's big race and explains why he believes home fans could be in for a treat......

Casey Stoner rides a Honda and is bound to win the Championship, but it's one of the Australian's team-mate's that Trent Burton fancies to win in Motegi...

Trent Burton reports from Aragon where Casey Stoner has been dominating practice sessions - when the teams can get out on the track that is...

Betfair website

Market Movers: Friday October 21

Market Movers / Editor / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Doncaster, Fakenham and Newbury

Doncaster
1:30
Shuja 7.6 out to 9.20
Rightl Regal 14.5 in to 11.0

14:00
Running Deer 7.7 in to 5.7
Amy Dorrit 7.96 in to 6.0
Inffiraaj 5.7 out to 7.2

14:35
Red Halo 5.0 out to 6.2

15:10
Steller Express 7.0 in to 5.8
Never Perfect 8.4 in to 6.6
Gunner Will 14.5 in to 9.8

15:45
Mac Power 10.0 in to 8.8
Bohemian Melody 17 in to 14.0
Cheveton 15.5 out to 20.0

16:20
Mungo Park 10.5 out to 20.0

Fakenham
14:10
Nesno 7.74 in to 7.0
Catwollow 16.0 in to 13.0

14:45
My Moment 6.6 in to 5.2
Court Red Handed 2.62 out to 2.88

15:20
Mush Mir 1.84 out to 2.06

15:55
Bottman 5.0 in to 4.1

16:30
Saute 2.32 out to 2.86

17:05
Reelwill 4.5 in to 3.45
Oh Em Gee 16.2 in to 11.0

Newbury
13:20
Sheikh The Reins 3.9 out to 5.10
Usain Colt 10.0 in to 4.3
Daffyd 12.0 out to 16.0
Forest Row 2.7 in to 2.4

13:50
Emperor Vespasian 2.54 in to 2.17

14:20
Mutasadder 4.40 in to 3.8

14:55
Sir Bedivere 3.45 in to 2.74

15:30
Main Focus 9.8 in to 6.80

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Wolverhampton...

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Brighton, Carlisle, Ludlow and Thurles...

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Kempton...

Betfair website

Newbury

Going Report / Editor / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Racecourse: Newbury
First Race Time: 13:20
Going: Good to firm
Other Information: Dry overnight. Dry day forecast.

Racecourse: Doncaster First Race Time: 13:30 Going: Straight course - good Round course - good, good to soft in places Other Information: Dry overnight...

Racecourse: Fakenham First Race Time: 14:10 Going: Good (watered) Other Information: Dry overnight. Dry day forecast with temperatures up to 14 degrees....

Racecourse: Wolverhampton First Race Time: 17:45 Going: Standard...

Betfair website

Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Bannock to keep rivals at bay

Tipping / Stuart Jones / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Racing in Ireland today comes from Dundalk.

"Both Nocturnal Affair and Mayson ran well in competitive handicaps last time, but both of those are forced to concede over a stone to the progressibe British juvenile and Bannock will take plenty of pegging back from stall one"

Three selections on the all-weather at Dundalk.

Grainne Whale (18:15) may well have bumped into one some way ahead of her mark when runner-up to Ashton Rose here last time and should gain a deserved first success in the opener. She has held her form well this season, placed on five occasions, and looks to have an excellent chance in what looks a very ordinary handicap. Homebrew looks the biggest danger, but the drop back to a mile isn't ideal for him and [5.5] looks too big for one as consistent at Grainne Whale.

The aforementioned Ashton Rose (19:10) won well here last month, beating our first selection with plenty to spare in a 1m handicap, and she looks to have strong claims of defying a 7 lb rise. She had caught the eye on several occasions prior to that that win, getting no luck in-running at Roscommon, and did well to overcome a wide draw last time. She's again unlucky to have been drawn 11, but she has enough speed to get across and should see off an inferior bunch.

The listed sprint event later on the card looks a fascinating affair with the two-year-old's taking on their elders, and it can go the way of the Mark Johnston-trained Bannock (20:30), who is well drawn, progressive and receives plenty of weight from his main rivals. Both Nocturnal Affair and Mayson ran well in competitive handicaps last time, but both of those are forced to concede over a stone to the British juvenile and Bannock will take plenty of pegging back from stall one.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Grainne Whale at [5.5] in the 18.15
Back Ashton Rose at [4.0] in the 19.10
Back Bannock at [2.94] in the 20.30

Today's Follow The Money comes from the cards at Doncaster and Fakenham...

David Cleary makes the picks today with bets at Doncaster and Newbury...

Can filly show the improvement needed to land win and place win?...

Betfair website

Timeform US SmartPlays: Sunday October 16

Timeform US SmartPlays / Timeform / 16 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Following three out of three in North America last night, Timeform's in-form US team bring you two more backs and a lay...

Monmouth race 1 (17:50 BST) win lay #2 CAT'S GOT LEGS at [3.75[ or shorter

Monmouth race 6 (20:25 BST) win back #5 MY SUNSHINE GAL at [3.5] or longer

Woodbine race 10 (22:42 BST) win back #2 ARCTIC COSMOS at [5.0] or longer

Want to go to the Breeders' Cup this year? Click HERE to find out how you could Win 5 Nights Luxury Hospitality courtesy of Betfair. Remember, the competition closes at 23:59 on Sunday October 16!

Three Timeform US SmartPlays to whet your appetite ahead of Sunday's Canadian International at Woodbine......

Two backs and a lay in North America tonight from Timeform's US team......

Here's another pair of backs and a lay in North America tonight from Timeform's US Team......

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Nick Shiambouros' Patented 80/20 Bet: Bath, 14:30

80/20 / Nick Shiambouros / 16 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Nick's selection is in action at Bath today but will it sink or swim?

Today's 80/20 is Larwood in the 14.30 at Bath.

This colt finished seventh to Al's Memory in a nursery at Haydock last month. He held every chance two furlongs from home but could only stay on at one pace and was well beaten. He has some reasonable form in maiden company and should make his presence felt in this interesting race. I think he will go close at a fair price. At present he is trading at [5.1] on the exchange.

It's all about Ascot for Nick today but which champion is his 80/20 selection?...

Will this Wag Tail fly to victory? Nick says yes......

Nick's expert knowledge tells us that today's selection has plenty of fight in it....

Betfair website