ODI preview 
/ Andrew Hughes / 01 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Jayawardene can lead the way to the finals
"Sri Lanka have already beaten Australia twice and they are quite capable of doing so again, particularly given that the Aussies do not need to win in Melbourne."
There's a simple equation for Sri Lanka in Melbourne: win the game to reach the finals and Andrew Hughes thinks they can do it.
March 2, Australia v Sri Lanka, Melbourne, Live on Sky Sports 1, 03:20 GMT
Team News
Australia's main selection dilemma is whether to risk captain Michael Clarke as he recovers from a hamstring injury. The signs are that he will be fit, but selectors may decide to give him an extra couple of days rehabilitation. Quick bowler James Pattinson is back in the squad and should come into the side for Ryan Harris.
Sri Lanka had been going well in this competition until their shock defeat by India on Tuesday, so they will not want to change things too much. They will though have to replace the injured Fervez Maharoof and are likely to go with another seam bowler such as Dhammika Prasad rather than a second spinner.
Venue and Conditions
The MCG surface should offer something for quick bowlers prepared to bend their backs but, based on what we saw in the opening game at the venue when Australia raced to 216 in 32 overs, this will be a batting-friendly pitch, with the true bounce enabling the more expansive strokeplayers to express themselves. There will be some cloud around on Friday, but no rain is forecast.
Match Odds
Tuesday's result has turned this final game from a gentle formality to a nail-biting eliminator. Sri Lanka's inability to defend a total of 320 against India will also have dented their confidence. The way that Virat Kohli was able to score at will from the bowling of Lasith Malinga was particularly worrying and both Mahela Jayawardene's use of the Powerplays and his bowling changes have been criticised
But I don't think punters should overreact on the basis of one result. Sri Lanka have played well throughout this tournament and it is in the nature of limited overs cricket that one brilliant performance like Kohli's can decide a game. Sri Lanka have already beaten Australia twice and they are quite capable of doing so again, particularly given that the Aussies do not need to win in Melbourne. At odds of [2.6] I'll be backing the wily Jayawardene to take his team to the finals.
Top Australian Batsman
Shane Watson struggled in his brief innings last Sunday and there have to be doubts over whether Australia will risk their captain for this game, so there aren't too many options in this market. David Hussey scored another half-century, but now that he finally seems to have discovered his touch, the tentative selection is David Warner, who should be suited by the MCG pitch and can be backed at [4.75] or better.
Top Sri Lankan BatsmanI
t was good news for Sri Lanka that Kumar Sangakkara finally got amongst the runs on Tuesday and he can be backed at [4.5] but the men to rely on in this market are the openers. Tillakaratne Dilshan hit a stunning 160 against India, but I'll be siding with Jayawardene. I'd expect him to respond to criticism of his captaincy with a solid batting performance and he is worth backing at [4.5] or better.
Featured Market
With a good batting surface expected at the MCG and some big hitters like Warner and Dilshan in form, the scene is set for plenty of runs. Backing 'Over 82.5' in the Highest Individual Score market at [2.0] is the way to go.
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Back Sri Lanka to beat Australia at 2.6
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