February 17, 2011

Bundesliga Betting: Can Dortmund overcome self-doubt?

German Football RSS / Kevin Hatchard / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jurgen Klopp must rally his team for the visit of St Pauli

Jurgen Klopp must rally his team for the visit of St Pauli

"I fancy St Pauli to score, especially with Dortmund defender Neven Subotic suspended, so back both teams to score at [2.06]."

Jurgen Klopp is concerned that his side have look nervous in recent weeks but can they get their title campaign back on track this weekend? Kevin Hatchard selects the weekend's best Bundesliga bets.

Borussia Dortmund [1.32] v St Pauli [13], the draw [5.7]

Borussia Dortmund lead the Bundesliga by a healthy 10 points, but the creeping mistress that is doubt is starting to whisper seductively into the ears of his players. BVB have drawn their last two matches, and have dropped six points since the winter break. Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich are keeping the pressure on, and are beginning to scent blood.

BVB conceded a 90th-minute equaliser in last week's 1-1 draw at struggling Kaiserslautern, and missed a host of chances in their goalless stalemate with derby rivals Schalke the week before. The concern for coach Klopp will be that a side that usually expresses itself with verve and freedom is starting to look nervous, especially when protecting a narrow lead. Perhaps this is to be expected with a squad comprised of so many young and relatively inexperienced players.

The last thing Dortmund need is Saturday's visit of St Pauli, who are brimming with confidence. On Wednesday night they performed the quintessential smash-and-grab raid at local rivals Hamburg, winning 1-0 thanks to a goal from Gerald Asamoah. The Pirates were outplayed for large chunks of the match, but battened down the hatches to scrape a vital win. St Pauli have won their last three matches, and are unbeaten since Christmas.

Holger Stanislawski's battlers are now five points above the dropzone, and their improvement can largely be attributed to a sudden goalscoring explosion. St Pauli went into the mid-season breather with one of the league's most ineffective forward lines, having scored just 16 goals in 17 games. Since then they've suddenly found their shooting boots, racking up 11 goals in just five games. Midweek match-winner Asamoah has scored in four of those matches.

Recommended bet: I fancy St Pauli to score in this one, especially with Dortmund defender Neven Subotic suspended, so back both teams to score at [2.06]. Given the recent form of both sides, I think [1.32] is too short for a home win, so lay Dortmund at [1.33]


Borussia Monchengladbach [3.7] v Schalke [2.16], the draw [3.6]

Rock-bottom Monchengladbach finally lost patience with coach Michael Frontzeck, and sacked him just over half a season into a two-year contract. The former Manchester City defender left Borussia Park with the Foals propping up the table and a daunting seven points adrift of safety. Frontzeck had already seen Aachen and Bielefeld relegated on his watch, and Borussia weren't about to let him complete an unwanted hat-trick.

The new man in charge is Lucien Favre, who's been itching (not literally) to get back into management since his departure from Hertha Berlin last season. Favre is a former coach of the year but takes over a side who haven't won a home game this season.

Schalke are in town on Sunday, and will be buoyant after a creditable 1-1 Champions League draw at Valencia in midweek. Since losing 5-0 at Kaiserslautern in November, Schalke have improved on the road, winning 1-0 at Mainz and Hannover (both top-four sides at the time) and drawing 0-0 at leaders Dortmund.

Recommended bet: Favre or no Favre, Borussia are still dreadful, and Schalke have toughened up. Back Schalke to win at [2.16]


Hannover [2.18] v Kaiserslautern [3.85], the draw [3.5]

The Champions League qualification dream is still alive for fourth-placed Hannover, who are just a point outside the top three. Mirko Slomka's side has been inconsistent since the winter break, beating Frankfurt and Wolfsburg but losing to Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke. Hannover's home form remains a cause for comfort, with seven wins from 11 matches.

Kaiserslautern have slipped into the bottom three thanks to a rapid post-Christmas decline. Last season's Bundesliga Zwei champions have collected just two points from their last five games, although they did hold leaders Borussia Dortmund to a 1-1 draw last week. Coach Marco Kurz must find a way to pick up points away from home - his side have lost eight of 11 road games.

Recommended bet: Hannover are hot at home, Kaiserslautern are cold away. Back Hannover to win at [2.18]. In-Play bettors should note Hannover have opened the scoring in eight of 11 home games, and are unbeaten in all eight games.

Jurgen Klopp is concerned that his side have look nervous in recent weeks but can they get their title campaign back on track this weekend? Kevin Hatchard selects the weekend's best Bundesliga bets....

Steve McClaren left Wolsburg this week amid talk of mutiny in the camp, not to mention poor results. The Wolves have a tricky match against Hamburg first up whereas elsewhere Cologne should grab another three points....

Kevin Hatchard is on some run of form with 11 winning bets from his last 19 recommendations showing a 31 point profit (before commission). He may be a good guy to carry on following this week......


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