February 17, 2011

League One Betting: 'Addickted' to poor starts

English Football League RSS / Alan Dudman / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Christian Daillys' Charlton take a while to get going

Christian Daillys' Charlton take a while to get going

"The best form of attack here is to rely on Charlton's knack of starting poorly in games, and see what sort of Exeter turn up. It's risky, but the [6.00] on offer for Exeter to win at half-time is too tempting."

Slow-starters Charlton are a side worth taking on pre-match when they host Exeter. Alan Dudman tells us the other good bets on offer ahead of another weekend in League One.

Bournemouth [2.38] v Huddersfield Town [3.10], the draw [3.60]

This looks the best game of the weekend in League One, hence the opportunity for a host of added markets for the match at Dean Court. Bournemouth have not lost under new manager Lee Bradbury and have looked resilient and tough - much like Bradbury on the pitch. The Cherries have been up there all season, and the small money that has been laid at [1000.0] to win the title will make a few people twitchy.

Bournemouth are now trading at [16.00] for the title and [3.60] for promotion. Huddersfield meanwhile are shorter in the promotion market at [2.46], but needed a win last weekend to boost their hopes of going up without the play-offs (they drew 0-0 with Oldham).

Bradbury has his team playing slightly different to former manager Eddie Howe, with the emphasis on being organised and strong, with the ability to use the odd moment of quality to win a game. The Cherries work short corners and set-pieces really well, but lack the pizazz of the Howe days.

Huddersfield got dragged into a Roses derby war last Saturday, and that stalemate was a rubbish game with both lacking ideas. Terriers boss Lee Clark might have top scorer Jordan Rhodes and midfielder Joey Gudjonsson back for Saturday - and they miss the goals of Rhodes.

With big games the first thought would be too look to goals, but Bournemouth might be set up not to lose this, and defend so well it might be the teams cancel each other out. The clean sheet markets are interesting
here, as the 'no' looks far too short for both at [1.26] and [1.35] respectively.

Recommended bets:

Back Draw/Draw @ [5.70]
Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.40]
Back under 1.5 goals @ [5.00]

Bristol Rovers [3.35] v Oldham Athletic [2.22], the draw [3.55]

Bristol Rovers manager Dave Penney said of his side recently: "We can't defend - it's as simple as that." The Gas have lost their last five and have conceded 19 goals in the process. Penney was right to label it Sunday League stuff after losing to 4-1 to Leyton Orient on Saturday. Despite the stats and words, tactically I have spotted something in the game.

Rovers have a chronic problem down their right-hand side, and conceded three of the four goals at Orient by not closing down the wide ball early enough. Oldham are strongest down their left flank, Chris Taylor drifts out there,
whilst ultra-fast full-back Cedric Evina must be given a license to attack and push on. The visitors could have a field day here, and should look to expose the home team's repeated failings in defence.

Oldham have a young team, and at times are naive. Although they showed that in midweek losing to Carlisle (having got involved in a scrap), the Latics really battled for a point at Huddersfield on Saturday. This will be a game they should
see as winnable, whereas the previous matches were plain old scraps.

Suggested bets:

Back over 2.5 goals @ [2.04]
Back Oldham to win 1-2 @ [16.00]

Charlton Athletic [1.73] v Exeter City [5.50], the draw [3.50]

Charlton manager Chris Powell experienced defeat for the first time in his new role on Tuesday night following the 2-1 loss at Hartlepool, and this game represents a chance for the former England international left-back to see how
his team react.

The Addicks are still in the play-offs, whereas Exeter get the wobbles and a frenzied attack of nosebleeds as soon as they head anywhere near the red zone. The Grecians are woefully inconsistent, but have won games.

The best form of attack here is to rely on Charlton's knack of starting poorly in games, and see what sort of Exeter turn up. It's risky, but the [6.00] on offer for Exeter to win at half-time is too tempting. The option to use the In-Play markets at the interval may also give you the opportunity to back the hosts at nearly [2.60] or bigger.

Suggested bet: Back Exeter to win HT @ [6.00]

And good luck to Orient this weekend!

Slow-starters Charlton are a side worth taking on pre-match when they host Exeter. Alan Dudman tells us the other good bets on offer ahead of another weekend in League One....

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League One watcher Alan Dudman unearths the best bets from three League One games with in-form pair Huddersfield and Orient catching the eye...


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