Champions League 
/ Tobias Gourlay / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Iker Casillas could be an important figure for Real Madrid against Lyon's in-form attackers
"Real have fallen short at the Stade Gerland every time they have come. The combined score from three matches there is 6-0 to the hosts."
Real Madrid have lost every game they have ever played at the Stade Gerland. Someone Special is needed if they are to do any better in Lyon on Tuesday night, says Tobias Gourlay.
Lyon and Real Madrid meet in the last 16 of the Champions League for the second year running. Twelve months ago, the French club won the first leg 1-0 at home and the tie 2-1 overall, condemning Real to a seventh consecutive season without a Champions League quarter final.
Lisandro Lopez might be injured, but Claude Puel's squad will be improved by the return from illness of goalkeeper Hugo Lloris.
Match Odds
Real have fallen short at the Stade Gerland every time they have come. The combined score from three matches there is 6-0 to the hosts.
Lyon warmed up for this game with a 4-0 win over Nancy on Friday night. Twelve goals from five games in 2011 suggest they have the firepower to trouble the Real defence, but the possible absence of Lopez is concerning. Remember too that Real had the second-best defensive record in the group stages.
OL's good historical record against the Spanish giants - unbeaten in six matches, home and away - makes their [4.9] win price look long, but this column wants some cover for the draw. According to personal taste, Lyon are [3.5] in the Draw No Bet market or Real are a [1.87] lay in the Match Odds.
Under / Over
In all competitions, Real's last six away games have stayed under 2.5 Goals. Real themselves have scored only four times in those matches.
At the weekend, Mourinho completed nine years unbeaten in home league matches. He has also won every single match at the Bernabeu so far this season. Lyon will most likely need to win this match, if they are to cause another upset in the tie. Until it becomes clear what Puel tactics are - to go for the win or the clean sheet - it is hard to disagree with the market's assessment of under 2.5 Goals as a [1.77] favourite.
Correct Score
We might not know what Puel is going to do, but what about Mourinho? Isn't it conceivable that he will settle for a goalless draw, safe in the knowledge of his perfect record back in Spain?
With that mean defence and poor scoring form of theirs, his team are well capable of achieving exactly that - more capable of it than a [12.5] price suggests.
Best Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score at [12.6]
Recommended Bet: Lay Real Madrid at [1.87] to win
You can now follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay
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