FA Cup 
/ Mike Norman / 29 January 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Tevez and Dzeko will hope to put Notts County to the sword
"Nine of City’s last 10 victories (all competitions) have come virtue of leading at half time, whilst every time they’ve led at half time in the league this term, they’ve gone on to win the game."
Paul Ince's side shocked Sunderland in the previous round, but Mike Norman believes lightning won't be striking twice against Manchester City. Best Bet: Back Man City HT/Man City FT at [2.1].
Venue: Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Kick-Off/TV: 14:00, Live on ITV1
You don't always get what you deserve in football, but from Notts County's perspective they definitely got one of the plum draws as reward for beating Premier League outfit Sunderland in round three. And there'll be no-one chomping at the bit ahead of this game more than Magpies boss Paul Ince - a former Manchester United player of course.
But Ince and his team will have to perform miracles if it is to be County that enter the hat for round five, as not only will they have to bridge a huge gulf in class (they are 59 places lower than City in the league ladder), they also have a terrible history to overcome - they haven't beaten Man City in nine games spanning a period of 20 years. Obviously much has changed in two decades; County is a club regularly dossing in the lower leagues whilst City have become the richest club in world football. They say the FA Cup is a great leveller though. We'll see.
County's form is a bit in and out at the moment - three wins on the bounce was followed by three games without a win - but in Lee Hughes they possess a striker that has played, and scored, at the highest level. Midfielder Alan Judge is sidelined with a foot injury, though captain Mike Edwards is expected to return after his absence in midweek with a hamstring injury.
Man City boss Roberto Mancini hasn't been afraid to field full-strength teams in cup competitions this season (Europa League and FA Cup) despite the Citizens being overwhelming favourites in many ties. I expect the same here which means Edin Dzeko should partner Carlos Tevez in attack, though England winger Adam Johnson is ruled out with an ankle injury.
Match Odds: Notts County [8.8], Manchester City [1.43], The Draw [5.2]
It's hard to envisage County producing a repeat of their third round heroics and therefore an away victory rates a confident selection. City's away form has been impressive in the Premier League this season - they've scored more goals on the road than they have at home - and they simply have too much talent within their side to slip up here. Famous last words and all that!
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Ince will definitely send his side out fired up and ready to give this cup tie a real go, and he'll probably be thinking if Leicester can score four times in two games against City then his boys are capable of scoring a few also. I'm not totally convinced that will be the case but I can definitely see County having their moments, whilst at the other end I fancy City to score a few times at least themselves. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.7] and that looks a safe bet - Notts County have averaged three goals per game in their three FA Cup ties this season whilst Man City's two games contained a total of 10 goals.
Half Time/Full Time
Both the Over 2.5 Goals and Man City to win options are fancied, but at [2.1] to back, the Man City/Man City option is my best bet of this game. Nine of City's last 10 victories (all competitions) have come virtue of leading at half time, whilst every time they've led at half time in the league this term, they've gone on to win the game.
If City do lead at half time then the omens are good that they'll go on to win the game, but with Betfair's In-Play market you don't have to endure the stress if you don't want to. As I've said, Man City HT/Man City FT is available to back at [2.1], so even if City hold just a single goal advantage at the interval those odds will shorten to around [1.3], giving you the option to lay your bet off for a healthy profit.
First Goalscorer
I won't be having a bet in this market, but for those of you who like to back strikers in these games then you can back Tevez at around [4.0], Dzeko at [4.5], and County's Hughes at [12.0] once the market materialises.
Best Bet: Back Man City HT/Man City FT at [2.1]
Also: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.7]
*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)
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